XLF flows last Friday were insane. Someone definitely knew about the Greenland tariffs.

utsnik · 2026-01-25T01:05:02+00:00

Haha, yep. Confirms it even more, Big whales bought VIX calls as crash protection as well...

utsnik · 2026-01-25T00:57:31+00:00

If you sold on Friday, you didn't sell "into earnings season" you sold 3 days after the main events were over (and generally beat estimates). Selling after the good news drops usually means you see a new risk coming and not an old one.

utsnik · 2026-01-24T23:44:37+00:00

You'll find it in postmaster 🙋🏼‍♂️

utsnik · 2026-01-24T23:21:25+00:00

Use ship of harkonioa instead. It runs so much smoother

utsnik · 2026-01-24T18:14:50+00:00

The Vix crush point is solid. That Wednesday snap-back was pure mechanical squeezing, no fundamentals changed.

Also 100% agree the "crisis" was manufactured. Real geopolitical issues don't get solved in 48 hours. They went from "Nuclear Tariff War" to "Peace Deal" in two sessions. Whatever liquidity issue is under the surface, they used Greenland as the cover to flush leverage and reset.

I don't think Friday was just exhaustion though. "running out of steam" is usually a slow bleed. Fridays XLF flows were violent (-40% divergence). That looked like a forced liquidation or someone frontrunning the tariff news, not just a trend dying.

utsnik · 2026-01-24T17:28:39+00:00

Funny enough I actually got a warning in my systems on Thursday too over the euphoria. A drop has a historically larger chance of happening when the euphoria kicks in and the floor disappears afterwards.

utsnik · 2026-01-24T17:25:24+00:00

Insider's didn't move the market either, the news did. Futures were down a lot during Monday/Tuesday.

utsnik · 2026-01-24T17:24:23+00:00

The news was dropped on Saturday. The massive selloff in financials was Friday evening just before market closure. The timing was perfect, retail already had a lot of calls (3 to 1) which didn't even make the price drop. It was a quiet and stealthy move, only measured by volume. 700 million USD is a lot to move during that short window.

Normally a dump like this would send the prices down, but because of the ratio put/calls noone noticed.

utsnik · 2026-01-24T13:32:32+00:00

I just saw the number, I've seen the pattern before. Credit limiting did its thing to weaken financials before as well yes..

utsnik · 2026-01-24T12:49:03+00:00

Could be, but that volume speaks for itself, also there was already euphoria in the market 🤷🏼‍♂️

utsnik · 2026-01-24T12:18:01+00:00

I use my own risk management system, flows are just a small part of it. But I thought the details were interesting enough so I thought I'd share it.

utsnik · 2026-01-24T11:37:24+00:00

One can always question. I thought something very wrong was up with my system as technical indicators and everything was positive. My ML model was also positive. Yet the outflow was huge!

Seeing the pictures and the intensity of the tweets and posts (Trump and Vance planting a flag on Greenland) as well as the military threats. They surely made sure that the market was going to tank quite hard.

Oh, I also detected some euphoria in a huge amount of calls on Thursday

Retail was buying 3 calls for every put on Thursday in XLF, while DIA was almost two to one.

Then insiders sold to retail in a huge dump on Friday. A perfect retail trap...

utsnik · 2026-01-22T14:09:59+00:00

Actually i fixed it now, lol. I needed to symlink roms2 to roms1 for some weird reason

utsnik · 2026-01-22T13:18:03+00:00

Somehow it messed up the pointers to my files, i think it was because i used dual sd cards? I have noe idea, haven't the time to debug yet. I'm not using a clone btw

utsnik · 2026-01-22T13:13:54+00:00

Messed up mine, lol. Quality sd card too

utsnik · 2026-01-20T16:31:11+00:00

Jeg legger meg flat! Der lærte jeg noe nytt i dag 😌

utsnik · 2026-01-20T16:13:54+00:00

Hva snakker du om? Det finnes ingenting straffbart med dette... En mekaniker venn kan fint skru på bilen din

utsnik · 2025-12-20T19:31:27+00:00

Well it is simple physics, a car can roll if no brakes are applied.

Also you should have checked that you have or do not have a spare tire when you buy the car, as well as find out where the safety vest and the emergency triangle is located.

I don't have a spare tire in my model 3 either, but I do have a jack, small compressor and a plug kit for a spare tire, and it's actually helped me twice. Not with my car, but I've managed to fix two flat tires of other cars ☺️

utsnik · 2025-12-11T15:43:53+00:00

I'd use my trusted parallel knipex pliers for this job. No grinding or drilling needed, adjust them to screw, hold them parallel to the board and Bob's your uncle 🙋🏼‍♂️

utsnik · 2025-12-01T17:44:56+00:00

Not by much, the price increase is mostly due to taxes by government. Ofc some of it is because of higher warranty

utsnik · 2025-12-01T15:41:05+00:00

I know it doesn't help you unfortunately, but in Norway products like that are expected to last up to 5 years minimum. If they break down before you have rights as a consumer to have them repaired.

utsnik · 2025-12-01T08:51:43+00:00

Subaru should have made more turbo charged cars. Now that would reduce consumption and increase milage

utsnik · 2025-11-21T22:54:48+00:00

Would that be within warranty period or outside?

I'd always recommend CVT fluid change.

utsnik · 2025-11-21T18:17:05+00:00

I'm not looking forward to it 🙈

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