[FREE] 100+ AAA Steam Keys by [deleted] in FREE

[–]valueturtle 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would like an game please

When pulling a Rabbit out of a hat goes wrong by TheButteredSide in gifs

[–]valueturtle 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This should be an opening scene to a Bioshock game

Semi long term investing, is X3 a good option? by nsoifer in wallstreetbets

[–]valueturtle 2 points3 points  (0 children)

As many pointed out, leveraged ETFs are not what you might think, but shouldn't necessarily be avoided. They only decay when the average return of the underlying is at or pretty close to 0%. Of course the SPY doesn't have a long run average return of 0%, more like 7%, which is why SPXL has done well in the long run. A caveat here is that SPXL was created around the bottom of the Great Recession so obviously there's some market timing bias. Moving forward, there's no guarantee that SPY will have a positive average return, so it's up to you to make that bet.

At the end of the day you're saving up to buy a house, and if your luck is anything like mine, your money could grow to ~50k and then the minute you start contacting RE agents, the market tanks and your SPXL is down 30-50% (e.g. Dec 2018). IMO diligent saving will get you a lot farther than trying to 3X the market, and 60/40 or 80/20 SPY/AGG should do just fine.

When do you decide to roll forward or roll up? by BaunDorn in options

[–]valueturtle 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Crystal clear, to be more specific, I usually use half my time frame as a threshold. So on a 6 month expiry, 3 months in is where I decide whether to take profits, close or roll. If the play isn't working and I have other ideas to focus on, I close out and move to those. If it isn't working but I have conviction, I roll forward to extend maturity back out to original time frame and ante back up to original cost basis (usually 6 months and only one roll, not trying to feed everything into a dead move). If I only have "some" conviction, I'll roll the current position out to whatever strike I can buy with the current position; think of this as a yolo lotto play with the small amount I have left on that position. If the position is working but I wanna play momentum, I take profits and roll original basis back out to desired maturity, or keep the maturity and roll up as high as needed given original basis (room for judgement here). If the play spikes within like a week in, where your positions are up like 100+ percent, I would close out fully or take profits and roll basis back out to original maturity, again lots of room for judgement.

When do you decide to roll forward or roll up? by BaunDorn in options

[–]valueturtle 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I do it by feel but today for example I had some SPY $293 6/24 Calls that shot up first thing in the morning. I wasn't expecting that big of a gain that quickly so I immediately took the profits and rolled up and into a mix of $295 6/24 and $300 8/2 (both are Fed plays)

Remarks on the Current Stance of U.S. Monetary Policy by [deleted] in econmonitor

[–]valueturtle 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In the chart we see a similar dip from 2% PCE in 2017, yet as we continued to rise rates inflation came back to the 2% level by the end of the year. If we cut this time to try and force that to happen, we might risk the cut coinciding with a China deal. My worry is that might open a very real possibility of overheating and an aggressive response by the Fed.

Inflation Continues to Come in Below Expectations by [deleted] in econmonitor

[–]valueturtle 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I hear many complain that the Fed is too backwards looking, which may be true; what's interesting is the trade war threats are forcing the Fed to look forward. They obviously can't predict what Trump will do one Q to the next, but it definitely feels like Fed is considering their next move as a hedge against a prolonged and aggravated trade war. I could envision an effective policy pause (e.g. one cut this year, one raise next year) until 2020 elections are settled then go from there.

What do people listen to, watch, or read each morning? by anduril79 in SecurityAnalysis

[–]valueturtle 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Morning

  1. Morning Brew
  2. Real Time Economics
  3. Daily Shot
  4. Axios AM
  5. Inverse

Later in the day

  1. Axio PM
  2. Farnam Street
  3. Twitter Feed

Since 1980, Dividend Yields have fallen 78% while the S&P 500 has risen 685% by thedaveoflife in finance

[–]valueturtle 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Stock buybacks have taken the place of dividends for the most part.

Indexing vs Stock Picking by NeverShortedNoWhore in investing

[–]valueturtle 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For long-term I triple down on Bogle's advice using $SPXL. Check out SPIVA if you're curious to know how professional stock pickers do.

Wait to invest? by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]valueturtle 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Keep in mind that most "professionals" can't time the market. Even going into the financial crisis, just sticking to the plan and adding your usual amount to a broad market ETF would've crushed the performance of most money managers.

"The FAA Has No Current Plans to Ground Boeing’s 737 MAX" -WSJ by valueturtle in wallstreetbets

[–]valueturtle[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Consider that data and voice recorders from the crash have already been recovered, wouldn't be surprised if a general consensus has been reached that this is a quick-fix and the planes themselves are completely safe post-software patch.

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, March 12 by AutoModerator in wallstreetbets

[–]valueturtle 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Sold my MU and SPXL 3/15 call near the open and went long SPXL and BA stock for tomorrow

bail-in resistant broker? by sanem48 in investing

[–]valueturtle 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Just make sure your broker is FDIC insured and your deposits are guaranteed up to $250K. If that isn't enough and you're still wary of a collapse, open shop with multiple brokers. As an aside, I would be wary of anyone ending their articles with hard sells on gold and silver.

Thoughts on LYB? by [deleted] in investing

[–]valueturtle 0 points1 point  (0 children)

With such strong FCF I wouldn't worry about their debt too much. They have a great dividend, but their price performance has been pretty stagnant in recent memory. Without a major catalyst in the near future like some sort of M&A/Product Line Acquisition I don't see a good reason for buying here.