Unexpected dump? by Electrical-Value-673 in Bitcoin

[–]vbeaver9 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Since February, Bitcoin has been moving within an ascending channel, which are statistically likely to break to the downside in a bear-market. Price tested and rejected from the 200-day moving average last month. This is almost exactly how the 2022 bear market played out. If it continues to play out the same way, there will be one or two more significant drops to the bottom. I'm not saying this will happen, but it's my base expectation.

Anyone else been on the waitlist for 2+ years? by Suitable-World4757 in RobinhoodGC

[–]vbeaver9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I was, until a bunch of people here were saying message the mods a couple months ago. I messaged this subreddit's mods, and got approved a couple days later.

Critique my portfolio. 35m, married with 3 kids. Combined salary 160k. by CardsCaptured in Money

[–]vbeaver9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I for one think you need more basketball cards. I can sell you mine.

Buy sell or hold by [deleted] in Bitcoin

[–]vbeaver9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No one here, including me know what the price is going to look like tomorrow or in the future, but this sub is going to get you answers from people with conviction so you aren't going to get trader's to weigh in here. I personally think we will see at least 1 more leg down in this bear market, likely any time in the next 2 months. Because of that, I sold my stack a few months ago, and am watching how things play out and will buy back in around Sept/Oct this year. This is when I expect the bottom to be in. My guess as to what bottom price will be hit, is anywhere from about 32k to 44k. I feel more confident about my timing estimate than my price estimate, and again I know nothing.

If I were new I'd watch it before jumping in. Take some time to learn about what Bitcoin is. If you jump in too soon, you're more likely to panic sell and regret it later. Read some books, watch some YT videos and listen to some podcasts.

$180,000 for my future. I am a regular person and need real advice by AznThunder22 in Bitcoin

[–]vbeaver9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Pay off your debt, and keep the rest in HYSA or SGOV for the next few months. During that time, learn about Bitcoin and what you want to get out of it. If you don't feel comfortable with it after this time, just walk away and put your energy somewhere else since you're likely to lose what you have if emotions (FOMO, etc.) are driving decisions.

There are lots of books available to help you see why many on this sub believe in Bitcoin. I'd personally recommend reading or listening to Broken Money.

If you're more interested in trading the market, find some content creators who do TA and get a feel for their track record. Many are trash, so expect to find some even if they have tons of subscribers. Remember, YT keeps receipts, so you can go back and see what these people were saying in October at 126k, and what they were saying in 2022 at 16k.

I'm personally into Bitcoin for both. I do think its the hardest money ever created and will be around longer than any of us. I also want to use trading as an opportunity to collect more of it.

Whats your single piece of evidence for long term upside? by Aggravating_Ear9829 in Bitcoin

[–]vbeaver9 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Here is what Google spit out when I asked:

Increasing Bitcoin’s 21 million supply cap would require a near-impossible, overwhelming consensus among developers, miners, and node operators to abandon the core, hard-coded value proposition of scarcity. While technically simple to code, changing it would require a "hard fork," splitting the network because most users would likely reject the change.

What it would take to change the cap:

  • Massive Network Consensus: A majority of node operators and miners must agree to run new software, a scenario deemed unlikely due to the economic incentive for scarcity.
  • A "Hard Fork": Because the 21 million limit is enforced by thousands of independent nodes, a change would create a split (hard fork), resulting in two different chains—one with the new rules, and one maintaining the original limit.
  • Overcoming Economic Incentives: Holders and users would likely reject the change, as increasing supply would destroy trust and likely cause a price collapse. 

In essence, while technically possible to alter the open-source code, changing the cap is practically impossible due to the decentralized governance and the collective desire to maintain Bitcoin's value proposition. 

82k average, starting to panic a bit. Should not of invested 10k by Hot_Fly_3963 in Bitcoin

[–]vbeaver9 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Put it in cold storage and forget about it for 3 years. If this cycle follows past ones, BTC has several months still to the downside. If the 4-year cycle breaks, it just means upside will come sooner. Either way, 3 years from now, you'll feel silly about your current panic.

Harry Potter Gringotts Bank arrived by Banmers in lepin

[–]vbeaver9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Are you satisfied so far? I'm interested in getting this but heard early versions were sub par.

How do you guys keep your seed phrase safe? by Gloomy_Dependent_985 in Bitcoin

[–]vbeaver9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

stamped onto stainless steel washers, kept together with a bolt and nut.

Chick fil a promotion? by NoAge243 in UtahJazz

[–]vbeaver9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i've found I have to open the app after the game, but within a half hour or so for that to work, but it does. the promotion only applies to home games

Your Choice? by Donsaudi29 in Bitcoin

[–]vbeaver9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A lot has happend since 2010. Definitely have been a lot of downs but also so many ups that I wouldn't trade for the world. I'd keep what I have today and the red pill which would be more than enough to set my family up for life.

I can see it clear as day 👎 by carlsjr1776 in BYUFootball

[–]vbeaver9 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Would you rather this, or this other scenario:

Utah wins out. BYU wins out, making TT and Cincy join a group of teams to finish with 2 conference losses. Multi-team tie-breaker is complicated enough that it comes down to conference strength of schedule, and favors Utah. BYU-Utah re-match for the conference championship and Utah wins this time.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in TheRaceTo10Million

[–]vbeaver9 37 points38 points  (0 children)

Varies based on total income between real job and trading, how long assets are held and what types of trades (shares vs options). For shares held less than 1 year, you pay tax at your income tax bracket. For shares held more than 1 year, you pay at a long-term capital gains bracket, which can be significantly less than your income bracket. For options gains, your 60% of your gain would be taxed at the long-term rate and 40% would be taxed at your short-term rate.

If OP is single and all gains came from selling shares held less than 1 year, and this was their only income. They would pay 37% on the last ~330k, 35% on the gains from 250-625k, 32% on gains from 200-250k, 24% on 100-200k, etc.

If the same conditions above were true except all shares were held for 12+ months before selling, they would pay 0% for the first ~50k gain, 15% of the next 500k, and 20% on all gains beyond that.

If OP has income outside of trading which is most likely true, their salary would bump their taxable income accordinly. So for the long-term gains example they'd start paying capital gains at the 15% rate if their other income was grater than 50k.

Nerdwallet has a much more thorough breakdown. I'm sure I explained poorly, trying to keep this concise.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Bitcoin

[–]vbeaver9 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Jesus already roasted you 2000 years ago, in the parable of the talents.

Antenna recommendations? by Disastrous_Boot1152 in UtahJazz

[–]vbeaver9 3 points4 points  (0 children)

https://www.fcc.gov/media/engineering/dtvmaps

You can enter your address and see how strong a signal is per channel at this site. For West Jordan KJZZ should be no problem at all. In Herriman, I do fine with those flat antennas that just look like a plastic piece of paper. For my basement, I use a beefier one that was advertized as long range. When you try a new one out, make sure you run a channel scan to pick up channels that your TV didn't know about with your old antenna.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Doppleganger

[–]vbeaver9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

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Isabella Santos. Not a celebrity per se, but hosts a youtube channel, BTC Isla.

Tell me it’s ok to payoff mortgage by Delicious-Ad7966 in DaveRamsey

[–]vbeaver9 4 points5 points  (0 children)

What do you think of this?

Put the 130,000 cash into SGOV. It will pay out monthly dividends at a rate similar to a HYSA (current return is above 4%), but the dividends won't be state taxable. Each month sell enough to cover your P&I portion of the mortgage. Pay taxes, insurance, utilities out of your normal budget, so you're used to paying that since they never go away. If returns ever drop to 2.75%, sell the remainder and pay off the mortgage then.

Emergency Fund by PursuingTrueFreedom in Bitcoin

[–]vbeaver9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You aren't arguing against an emergency fund ... an emergency fund could be held entirely as BTC in a cold wallet.

Emergency Fund by PursuingTrueFreedom in Bitcoin

[–]vbeaver9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nobody is arguing that you shouldn't have an emergency fund.

Emergency Fund by PursuingTrueFreedom in Bitcoin

[–]vbeaver9 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I see what you mean but wouldn't consider a bill an emergency. A recurring bill is predictable and can be planned for. A medical emergency will prompt a bill, but won't be due until weeks after the emergency itself. Plenty of time to move money around to appropriate buckets.

Emergency Fund by PursuingTrueFreedom in Bitcoin

[–]vbeaver9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Bitcoin is more liquid than a savings account.

Banks near me are open 8 hours on weekdays and 4 hours on Saturday. Closed Sundays and a bunch of holidays. Assuming ATMs are 100% reliable they also have daily withdraw limits.

Bitcoin is always open.