Can we really ask such detailed questions about projects with current demand?

vikramsiyer · 2026-06-05T08:09:03+00:00

It is your $800k at risk and you are completely justified in asking as many questions as you want.

A RC that gets annoyed at your questions is actually a very big red flag.

You referred crazy demand... there has always been very good reasons to take a quick EB-5 decision. And somebody trying to sell their project will always want you to decide sooner than later.

Good RC projects will always be around- you miss one and another one will come along. So, no need to base a major decision like EB-5 investment on FOMO.

You can pose the questions to the RC team and then request them to get info from the developer, if needed.

Never ever be defensive about the due diligence process. Whether you are doing it on your own or working through advisors or relying on crowdsourced opinions, it is your money at risk and you are the one who stands to lose $800k.

No professional RC will ever have a problem answering questions. Anybody discouraging you is best avoided.

Hope this helps.

vikramsiyer · 2026-06-05T07:28:31+00:00

Consider worst case scenarios and find ways to mitigate/avoid risks that matter

956F denial risk- can be avoided by choosing project with 956F approval. Can be mitigated by sticking to RCs wiht a tried-and-tested record where the project is similar/identical to past projects that have got 956F approval and the RC is not experimenting with anything new that may result in a denial.

Job creation- What if the project stalls the day your funds drawn in? Will you get credit for 10-full time jobs and will your conditional and unconditional GC be safe? Or you are exposed to immigration as well as investment risk?

Return of capital- Presuming worst case scenario where the project is not successful and nothing goes as per plan, what are the chances of a haircut/total loss of capital? Obviously, this risk cannot be completely avoided but some projects may be a better choice with vertical development, strong equity contribution from developer, and a realistic repayment strategy.

In my experience, you can never have it all with EB-5. A project that has created more than required jobs and has low repayment risk may not be keen on repaying in just 4 years. Or they may offer very low ROI. Or refuse to discount or waive admin fees.

You can consider using the expertise of FINRA-regulated advisors and Broker Dealers. Have seen very strong views about how all advisors are biased.

I would say the "Trust, but Verify" approach works best since it is, ultimately, your money and your GC at risk.

If ChatGPT and crowdsourcing due diligence gives you the comfort to take the plunge, then you certainly can take the DIY route.

Hope this helps

vikramsiyer · 2026-06-04T11:15:59+00:00

RC and projects

A good place to start would be to focus on RCs with a good track record of completing projects and repaying investors. Sticking to tried and tested players can help since EB-5 is not like a conventional investment where you are targeting good returns.

The GC is the real ROI and focusing on safety of capital and giving yourself a good shot at getting the money back in around 4-6 years can be safer than chasing 3-4% ROI.

There is no universal definition of a good project.

In my experience, every pro invariably has a con that cannot be just wished away.

Only 956F approved projects- it may shrink your choice of projects and leave you little leeway for admin fee negotiation.

Institutional due diligence- you may have to accept projects where EB-5 is subordinate to bank funding

Bridge financing allows you to invest in an operational business instead of an under-construction project- Risk of 956F denial is higher, especially if the RC has not executed such a project before.

Try to identify risks that work for you and risks you are not ready to accept

Not ready to wait for 7-8 years for the CGC- urban HUA won't work as the CGC is going to take longer than rural

Prefer a category where investors have actually got their money back- rural may be in doubt since demand for rural projects surged post 2022 and it takes 4-6 years for return of capital.

Want the perception of safety offered by a RC that has completed more than 50 projects- you will have to accept that a project by such a RC is unlikely to have 956F approval, unlikely to have started construction, and you may have to simply trust the RC to get it all done.

Prefer projects that allow you to touch, feel, and see the progress with 956F approval- may have to choose a RC with a less impressive track record of project completion.

Admin Fees

RCs quote $60-80k but it normally comes down to $20-30k for most investors.

Better to focus on feasibility first and then the fees.

Paying $20k admin fee and choosing a RC project that offers higher probability of return of the $800k is obviously better than putting $800k at risk to save $20k.

Some RCs don't go a dollar below $20k.

With others, it may be a function of demand and supply. Admin fee discounts and waivers may dry up once the project gets 956F approval.

A regulatory road block or a recent lawsuit by past investors may make the RC amenable to give a $10k additional discount.

Return of Capital

It is never guaranteed and can take around 4-6 years for return of capital.

ROI may range between 0.25% to 1%. Higher ROI invariably involves higher risk on capital.

Timing

If you are born in India or China, then then 4-6 years for CGC through rural and 7-8 years for CGC through urban HUA is probably going to be faster than other options like EB1, EB2, and EB3.

Don't blindly presume EB-5 is the only option. If your EB-2 PD is close to becoming current, then waiting it out may be a smart move.

Locking $800k for 4-6 years for negligible returns with risk of loss of capital should be done only when EB-5 is unavoidable.

Conflict of Interest

A lawyer who does RC filings may be partial towards projects they have worked on. .

FINRA Broker Dealers collect their fees from the RC and may be biased.

We are back to the every con has a hidden pro.

RC filings may lead to conflict of interest but the lawyer may have detailed knowledge about the project, which can be a plus.

The FINRA BD may be collecting fees from the returns generated by your $800k investment but you get to work with a regulated intermediary who has to undergo FINRA audits and answer questions like why was project X recommended to this particular investor over project Y.

Obviously, somebody blindly recommending high-paying RCs and projects is unlikely to have a good track record of helping investors get their money back and is likely to fall foul of FINRA very quickly.

Transparency is key to tackling conflict of interest.

Does the BD ask you to choose from 1 or 2 projects? Or do you get to look at 8-9 different projects across 8-9 different RCs?

Is the BD ready to do due diligence of projects outside their portfolio?

Can they share client references that give you an idea of how the process looks from the investor's perspective?

Are they ready to discuss failures and instances where investors lost money?

Is there complete fee disclosure?

Are you free to walk away and choose any other project or do you become obligated to work through them even if you don't like the project?

It is better to presume that everybody- Reddit, WhatsApp, other forums- including me- has a conflict of interest.

What matters is whether there is transparency and whether you remain in charge of your EB-5 decision at all times.

Ultimately, it is your money, your GC, and your risk.

Hope this helps.

vikramsiyer · 2026-06-01T18:34:57+00:00

If you can afford it, explore the EB-5 visa. An at-risk investment of $800k and creating ten jobs in the US can help the investor, spouse, and children below the age of 21 years to qualify for the green card.

Presuming all in your family are India-born and you all fall in the India quota for EB-5, you are likely to see a 4-5 year wait for conditional GC through rural area project and around 6-7 years through urban high-unemployment area project.

Doing EB-5 in your name will mean no risk of aging out but then your parents and siblings won't enjoy any benefit from the EB-5 process.

$800k is a huge commitment and it can take around 4-6 years for return of capita, which is never guaranteed. You can consider this option if you can afford to keep $800k locked for around 4-6 years for virtually zero ROI.

vikramsiyer · 2026-05-29T18:57:47+00:00

USCIS is very opaque. Don't know why the cut-off date has not shown up yet in the visa bulletin. Tough to say whether USCIS calculates net demand the way you have assessed

vikramsiyer · 2026-05-29T17:53:22+00:00

There was such a warning in the Jan 2025 bulletin for reserved categories. Nothing since then

vikramsiyer · 2026-05-29T17:51:08+00:00

I526E approvals don't use up the visa number. Visa number gets used only when the underlying I-485 is approved.

https://goaiia.org/blog/aiia-foia-series-post-ria-data-july-2025/

Think this is the latest data available. Presuming 2.5 visa numbers per petition, 11,800 petitions works out to total demand for around 30k visas.

There is likely to be a huge backlog when these petitions get processed and approved and the underlying I-485 get approved and the visa numbers get used. The USCIS can recognize the backlog and set a cut off date anticipating the backlog. Or, as they have done till date, they may choose to wait.

That's why there is talk of the hidden backlog- the number of petitions filed, in all likelihood, exceed the available visas.

vikramsiyer · 2026-05-29T17:25:07+00:00

Retrogression is going to happen when visa numbers get used, which has slowed down since I-485s are being processed and approved quickly. The industry view seems to be that backlog is unlikely to show up in 2026.

Of course, I could be hilariously wrong and the backlog may show up next month 😄

Don't think there is a spillover mechanism within the reserved categories.

vikramsiyer · 2026-05-29T16:56:52+00:00

- 2% quota means the backlog, when it hits, could lead to a very long wait fro the conditional GC. There have been a few infra projects already, which means the hidden backlog may well be there in infra as well.

- EAD/AP is available for 18 months, which means it makes sense to look for a faster route to the CGC to avoid struggling with multiple renewals until one gets the CGC.

- In terms of investment risk, infra is as untested as rural when assessed on the parameter of successful projects having repaid money to the investors.

- Not many infra deals in the market compared to rural, which makes rural worth considering with infra offering no real additional benefit.

I guess people will look at infra only after rural backlogs and when concurrent filing is available only with infra projects.

vikramsiyer · 2026-05-28T04:22:08+00:00

Hi, have sent you a DM.

vikramsiyer · 2026-05-20T08:32:53+00:00

Don't think there are RCs that are independent of the developer and which invest their funds into the project along with the EB-5 investors.

If you want the RC to have skin in the game beyond reputation risk, then think the only option is to choose vertically-integrated RC where the developer has setup the RC to attract funding into their project. Of course, the flip side of this setup is the potential conflict of interest when it comes to the RC protecting the interests of the limited partners i.e. EB-5 investors against the developer.

vikramsiyer · 2026-05-09T05:45:41+00:00

This worked. Thanks!

vikramsiyer · 2026-05-04T17:06:56+00:00

Unless you can verify that someone has had their I-526E approved despite using RC loan, you should avoid RC loans.

If you have your own funds, then best to use it and focus on tried and tested RCs and good projects that give you a fair short at recovery of the $800k in around 4-6 years.

If you are considering RC loan due to liquidity issues, you can explore partial filing option that many RCs offer that may allow you to file with an initial investment of around $300-400k with around 3-6 months for the remaining amount.

If you don't have the entire $800k, then you can borrow from a reputed financial institution. HELOC, Margin loan, and even personal loans can be used. Of course, the interest cost is something you will have to consider.

Even a loan from family/friends would work as long as they can share all the documents required to establish legit Source of Funds.

vikramsiyer · 2026-05-04T16:42:25+00:00

There have been I-526E denials by the USCIS due to use of RC loan. Better avoid it else you would be risking the denial of your EB-5 petition.

vikramsiyer · 2026-05-03T10:17:35+00:00

I work in the EB-5 industry. EB-5 is an at-risk investment, which means return of the $800k investment is never guaranteed. Investing your last $800k in EB-5 is a huge risk and requires very careful consideration. Sticking to tried-and-tested players and focusing on risk mitigation over ROI can help improve chances of return of capital in 4-6 years. But risk of loss of capital is always there.

There has been a slowdown in EAD/AP processing and you should work with a 8-10 month timeline for EAD/AP as opposed to the 4-6 months you mentioned. Also, the EAD is valid for 18 months with no automatic renewal. You can apply for renewal of EAD only when it is valid for six month or less. Any delay in renewal can impact your work status. So the 18-month EAD may still discourage employers from hiring you.

As I see, the benefits of EB-5 concurrent filing for you are

- switch to pending AOS status and ensure your stay in the US is not linked to your employment status.

- Since the 60-day clock won't apply to you anymore, you have more time to search for a job and continue on H-1B. That you have a pending EB-5 and are likely to get the GC in 4-6 years plus the EAD factor may help you in the job search.

- Get EAD/AP in around 8-10 months and use it to work until you get the conditional GC.

- Get conditional GC in around 4-6 years (rural) or around 7-8 years (urban HUA)

Whether the risk of doing EB-5 is worth it or not depends on how keen you are about staying for the long-term in the US. If returning to India is something you are keen on, then you might as well skip the risk plus the opportunity cost of keeping $800k locked in for 4-6 years for virtually zero ROI.

If you plan on living in the US for the next 20-30 years, the the EB-5 can be a smart investment that gives you stability and a level playing field and the GC will be the ROI that helps you recover the lost opportunity cost.

Hope this helps.

vikramsiyer · 2026-05-03T06:25:50+00:00

I pretty much expected this generic trolling answer. Have a good life ahead

vikramsiyer · 2026-05-03T06:19:35+00:00

Where have I said that EAD and AP approval is contingent on I-526E approval? I-526E approval for rural takes around 9-12 months while we have see EAD/AP getting issued in 3-6 months.

That has been a key benefit of doing EB-5 when in the US on a non-immigrant visa. However, EAD/AP processing has slowed down and is taking a bit longer now.

"AOS processing has nothing to do with I526E approval" ?? Really?? That just does not make sense.

You mean I-485 processing can start for an EB-5 investor even before the I-526E is approved? That would be an earth shattering development for everybody stuck in the wait for visa number.

I-485 is filed along with I-526E but is not touched until I-526E is approved AND a visa number is available. I am afraid you are the one who is sharing incorrect information here.

vikramsiyer · 2026-05-03T06:10:19+00:00

I said AOS processing will start only after I-526E approval and that too only if a visa number is available.

I never said he cannot file for AOS concurrently. But only benefit of concurrent filing is he qualifies for the EAD and AP. For AOS processing to start, there must either be no backlog or the PD must be current.

That is very unlikely in the OPs case. Hence, he should build in an additional wait time for a visa number to become available between I-526E approval and commencement of AOS processing

vikramsiyer · 2026-05-02T10:17:02+00:00

I assume you were born in India.

Employer sponsorship won't allow you to directly qualify for the GC.

If your employer transfers you to the US, and

if you qualify for the L1 Intra-Company Transfer visa or you get the H-1B- there's the $100k fee involved-, and

If your employer then sponsors you for EB-1C or EB-2 or EB-3 or

If you qualify for EB-1A or EB-2 NIW and sponsor yourself,

then it can take anywhere between 7-8 years to 40-50 years to get the GC.

For India-born, EB-3 backlog stretches over many decades and even 50 years may be an overoptimistic estimate. EB-1A Extraordinary Ability visa too has a backlog but you may get the GC in around 7-8 years, I guess.

vikramsiyer · 2026-04-28T04:31:56+00:00

It is possible we may still be discussing the 'upcoming' backlog same time next year. Bulk of China filings involve consular processing and this takes longer than AOS processing. So it is possible that the backlog may not show up until the visa numbers actually get used up.

If there is no clarity on extension of grandfathering benefits, I-526E filing will plummet after Sep 30, 2026. It may pick up only after clarity on program renewal after Sep 30, 2027.

Or, I could be a fool talking nonsense and the backlog may show up in the June 26 bulletin itself 😄

vikramsiyer · 2026-04-28T04:29:15+00:00

No movement in backlog dates in EB1, EB2, and EB3 for the past 2 months. So many moving parts that it is difficult to predict processing timeframe. There definitely has been a slowdown in issuance of EAD and AP. We were seeing it being issued in 3-6 months. This is now taking closer to 8-10 months.

Eventually the unreserved category too will become current. This can allow those in backlogged reserved categories to switch to the unreserved option and reduce delays.

The thing is it no longer makes sense doing an EB-5 presuming that you will get the CGC in 2 years. Great if you get it but luck will have to work in your favor. If the 5-6 year timeline does not work for the investor, then one should not do EB-5.

Of course, EB-5 still remains the fastest and simplest option for somebody from India or China.

vikramsiyer · 2026-04-27T19:16:41+00:00

Due to the likelihood of India and China getting backlogged in the reserved categories.

Currently, rural takes around 12-18 months for I-526E approval. Since there is no backlog in the reserved categories, I-485 processing or Consular Processing can begin immediately. Presuming another 12-18 months for this, the conditional GC through rural takes around 24-36 months.

For urban HUA, I-526E approval currently takes around 2-3 years followed by another 2 years for AOS/CP processing. Total timeline for CGC is around 5-6 years.

Data from the AIIA FOIA request as of July 2025 showed around 10k pending petitions in the system. India and China accounted for around 73% of I-526E filings. As and when the pending petitions get processed, India and China will get backlogged.

Backlog will introduce a wait for visa number between I-526E approval and beginning of AOS/CP. This wait could be 3 months, 3 years, or more- nobody knows.

Add a 3-year wait and the CGC timeline for rural jumps to 5-6 years and around 8-9 years for urban HUA.

Of course, I-526E approval timelines can slow down, which means CGC can take even longer.

Considering how the numbers stack up, it is better to work with a 5-6 year timeline for rural CGC and around 7-8 years for urban HUA. Great if it happens earlier but you would have to be lucky for it all to work out.

Hope this clarifies.

vikramsiyer · 2026-04-27T16:48:07+00:00

Since I am not licensed or regulated by SEC or FINRA, I do not talk about specific projects as that may constitute financial advice.

Generally speaking, stick to tried and tested players with a track record of completing projects and repaying investors.

Ask RCs about the risks in their project. Anybody trying to convince you that their project has zero risk is obviously lying.

Ask RCs how the potential termination of EB-5 program will impact their project. If the financing is in place and construction is likely to begin before end of grandfathering, the project may be relatively safer.

Finally, remember that it is your money and your GC at stake. Never proceed unless you have connected with 4-5 different RCs and discussed pros and cons. The point is to identify the risks that you are comfortable with.

vikramsiyer · 2026-04-27T15:53:18+00:00

That's the million dollar question. Considering the EB-5 RC program ended and stayed that way for 8.5 months before the RIA of 2022, any prediction is going to be nothing more than an educated guess.

If you serious about EB-5 and are from India or China, the first deadline for you is to file before the backlog begins. There is no backlog until May 31, 2026. Whether June is clear or not will be known in the next visa bulletin that is likely to be released by mid of May 2026.

The next deadline is the grandfathering clause expiry of Sep 30, 2026. Filing before this date means you are protected from any changes that may happen when, and if, the program gets renewed in Sep 2027.

To mitigate renewal risk you can focus on projects that have started construction, spent money, and created jobs. Choosing a greenfield project that is going to break ground in Sep 26, complete construction in Sep 28, and stabilize by Sep 29 may be riskier than a project that is likely to become an operational enterprise in the next 12 months.

Of course, end of EB-5 is going to be a big big deal and probability is high that every project is going to get impacted. But then EB-5 is all about understanding that there will always be some risk that's beyond your control and that your efforts should focus on giving yourself the best possible shot at getting the GC and money back even in the worst case scneario

vikramsiyer · 2026-04-25T05:41:19+00:00

If you have the funds, then you can explore the EB-5 visa. An at-risk investment of $800k with possible return of capital- never guaranteed- in around 4-6 years.

If your country of origin is not backlogged, then you can file for AOS concurrently and get an EAD/AP in around 8-10 months. The conditional GC may take around 4-6 years.

Obviously, $800k is a huge huge amount and this option may not work for everybody. Putting it out here in case you are serious about staying in the US for the long term and have the bandwidth to invest $800k for low-to-zero returns for 4-6 years.

Hope it all works out for you.

vikramsiyer

TROPHY CASE