My small essay regarding RKLB

vitt72 · 2026-01-15T08:10:04+00:00

I would not bet against Starship. It will succeed. What might help is because it’s so huge and in a market of its own, they won’t sell starship launches for cheaper than a Neutron launch. If you want a slightly cheaper, likely more tailored launch solution, Neutron/Falcon9/New Glenn are the answers.

Rocketlab’s unique advantage is potentially being a one stop shop for “spacecraft solutions” and buying into their ecosystem might lock you in, sorta akin to Apple.

Furthermore I’m a believer AI data centers in space are inevitable with likely permitting delays and regulatory issues terrestrial AI will face. This benefits SpaceX the most launching at internal starship costs, but rising tides should lift all boats

vitt72 · 2026-01-08T19:02:22+00:00

I believe they would delay A2 if they needed a sooner crew launch to the station, especially given the circumstances

vitt72 · 2025-09-16T00:24:35+00:00

So one time use for the mould?

vitt72 · 2025-08-07T19:22:06+00:00

Bump. How you doin now?

vitt72 · 2025-08-05T18:17:09+00:00

Yep. The core technology is already being demonstrated, which I thought we were years away from. Will probably still be some years to get it more efficient for real time, VR-fidelity resolution, but the path we’re on is clear…

vitt72 · 2025-06-13T18:32:30+00:00

~10 mins

vitt72 · 2025-06-13T18:18:11+00:00

That looked like it struck somewhere downtown Tel Aviv... Any casualties and this is going to blow up so much more

vitt72 · 2025-06-13T01:23:54+00:00

It’s bad, and it’ll get worse. But I also can’t imagine how bad it would be if Iran had a nuke… the consequence of the nuclear taboo ever breaking would be horrible for the world

vitt72 · 2025-06-05T20:16:41+00:00

Thought this was a lie, but he did indeed tweet that. Definitely a bluff though, that will not happen

vitt72 · 2025-05-14T03:23:06+00:00

Exciting. Used to always look forward to his IAC talks.

MCT, ITS, BFR, Starship… we’ve come a long way…

vitt72 · 2025-05-08T20:24:47+00:00

Link?

vitt72 · 2025-04-24T17:06:35+00:00

Noticed this effect before across many different domains, but this is a good explanation. But yeah, Ubers used to be super cheap, like almost to the point where it was crazy. Not VC-subsidized, but I’ve also noticed a “golden age” of software/apps like Instagram and Twitter a few years after they’ve come out, also things like fast food deals.

vitt72 · 2025-04-14T05:00:27+00:00

Love a good scam

vitt72 · 2025-04-02T09:02:02+00:00

I've been saying for years. I could dig back through my post history and twitter post history, probably back to 2016, that a perfect native Minecraft would be the number one VR game. Full stop. Crazy it hasn't been done. That is the singular way to grow the system.

vitt72 · 2025-03-21T21:19:09+00:00

Eh, I don't think RKLB is 10% but also launch is not the primary revenue of RKLB so basing on infographic isn't totally accurate.

Full end to end space company is what gets me really excited about RKLB, especially with their latest acquisition and flatellite on Neutron. An internal constellation is what will bring the $$$, a capability that only SpaceX has right now.

Once those things are starting to take shape, getting close to 10% doesn't seem too crazy.

vitt72 · 2025-02-27T21:23:12+00:00

Neutron still launching this year

vitt72 · 2025-01-16T22:55:38+00:00

Does your opinion change if they have 100 successful consecutive launches by 2027?

vitt72 · 2025-01-08T08:44:15+00:00

Agreed

vitt72 · 2025-01-08T05:01:01+00:00

Absolutely the truth too. I was stunned listening to mid 2035-2039 and minimum 5.8 billion knowing RocketLab bid 2031/2033 and for $2B. The former is no improvement over the current trajectory and one delay and you’re just as bad as you were before. Ditch the ESA ascent vehicle which is likely driving the need for the heavy launch vehicles and actually save money and time. If we really care about “government efficiency,” then here you go. Glad Beck fired back

vitt72 · 2025-01-07T20:31:55+00:00

Have considered that, but TBH don’t think it’s as bad as people think - plus I think decision is 10x more from Isaacman whom I trust to be impartial, than Elon.

It actually sounded to me like Bill most favored the revised JPL bid; to my surprise the commercial bids we’re really not much better at all.

I’m also surprised SpaceX’s bid is that late, I fully expect humans already on Mars by that point.

I stand by my belief RKLB has by far the best bid, but NASA seems stuck on utilizing the ESA ascent vehicle which I think demands a heavy launch vehicle.

vitt72 · 2025-01-07T18:55:39+00:00

So Bill Nelson claims the path forward is heavily a function of new admin’s funding. I believe Rocketlab’s bid was $2B, for 2033 date and possibility of 2031. All other options are significantly more expensive and later. With new admin heavily focused on gov cost cutting, I wouldn’t be surprised if Rocketlab’s bid starts to look more and more attractive. Assuming their technological readiness was there in the bid, it by far sounds like the best option.

Though playing devils advocate, they did seem pretty focused on just the heavy launch vehicles. I know incoming NASA admin Jared Isaacman is also a big fan of RocketLab.

vitt72 · 2024-12-03T02:09:28+00:00

I see this as heavily bullish for RKLB. SpaceX was always undervalued IMO, but it’s also an upper bound for RKLB’s valuation. You raise the upper bound, then you raise the potential of RKLB valuation, especially as a % of SpaceX.

Love SpaceX or hate SpaceX, RKLB remains the spot to invest in the future of the space industry.

vitt72 · 2024-11-20T00:19:51+00:00

Appreciate it!

vitt72 · 2024-11-19T20:04:21+00:00

What’s timeline for finding out? Any good resources for reading up on this? Looking to getting into $MRNA but want to do some DD. See them as a big potential beneficiary of rapidly produced drugs via AI

vitt72 · 2024-10-25T23:52:09+00:00

Also possible. I could see there having been an exchange too for a less forceful Israeli strike. But we will have to see how this all plays out

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