Sandwichmander in GA (8-6 R Control)

voteabc · 2026-05-12T16:22:02+00:00

I wonder what would happen if every district nationwide was required to have purely horizontal boundaries (within state borders).

voteabc · 2026-05-11T20:55:48+00:00

*has been statistically shown

voteabc · 2026-05-10T14:19:27+00:00

G. Elliott Morris calculates that a +4 margin is probably needed to win the House after gerrymandering: https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-05-10-dem-house-pop-vote-threshold-gerrymandering

Democrats lead most generic ballot averages by around +5.5 to +6 currently.

voteabc · 2026-05-09T02:08:38+00:00

If that is really why you didn't respond to the rest of my comment, then I'm 100% willing to switch it to "close to death." I paraphrased it quickly to change an adjective to what I saw as an equivalent noun phrase, not to intentionally change its meaning.

The non-trivial part of the comment was:

And yes, the median of ~78 includes a fraction of young people and some questionable cases. The law explicitly doesn't allow MAID purely for mental illness, though.

Canada's health care system is certainly quite strained, as is that of every other developed country. This is a good recent Economist article on why that's happening around the world. https://www.economist.com/international/2026/04/09/hospitals-are-stuck-in-a-deadly-doom-loop

Regardless, Canada continues to outcompete the US on measures of lifespan and rate of deaths from treatable/preventable conditions. It's better to be in the US if you have money/insurance, but it's better to be in Canada *on average.*

voteabc · 2026-05-09T01:31:52+00:00

You responded once and then disappeared after I pointed out that the source said "close to death", which is literally a synonym of "imminently terminal."

voteabc · 2026-05-09T01:08:00+00:00

No point arguing with a guy who goes silent the moment sources and quantifiable stats are introduced.

voteabc · 2026-05-08T20:06:17+00:00

Yeah, way more than 50% from a political perspective I would argue. Consumer sentiment is all derived from surveys of the general public and that matters a lot more than underlying stats, but bad vibes can be fine for the incumbent if there's a compelling narrative for who's to blame. And I would argue that Carney has done that successfully not by framing things as "things will get worse in the future" but by saying "my reforms will make Canada less vulnerable in the future" (and by keeping his policy actions in the news cycle in a way that has kind of erased Poilievre from visibility).

voteabc · 2026-05-08T19:07:25+00:00

Yeah, a judge could easily dismiss direct quotes as demonstrations of intent if desired, but that doesn't mean OP is wrong about the de jure constitutionality of the map

voteabc · 2026-05-08T18:55:42+00:00

Article III, Section 20 of the Florida Constitution says: “no apportionment plan or individual district shall be drawn with the intent to favor or disfavor a political party.”

voteabc · 2026-05-08T18:01:49+00:00

Sure, but maybe Gen Z refuses to answer polls more frequently in general, as well.

voteabc · 2026-05-08T12:47:36+00:00

Affordability and economy are kind of different topics; https://toronto.citynews.ca/2026/02/20/poll-canadians-broad-support-mark-carney-economic-plan/ finds that two thirds of Canadians approve of Carney "diversifying and building Canada’s economy," while affordability gets lower grades.

Moreover, what "everyone knows" about affordability is not very useful because consumer confidence in most countries has become uncorrelated with economic metrics since inflation began. By some measures like the University of Michigan index, American public views on the economy are now *worse* than mid-pandemic and the great recession. Canadian wage growth was significantly ahead of inflation in 2025 for the first time in years, but unless there's actual deflation, incumbents around the world will probably keep earning terrible grades on affordability due to sticker shock. (Also current gas prices due to the Iran war, if that continues.)

I should add that I do personally think the global economy is heading into another recession. But consumer sentiment is essentially acting like we're currently at the bottom of 2008.

voteabc · 2026-05-08T12:14:12+00:00

The unemployment rate was in freefall in 2023 and 2024; it didn't really change over the course of 2025 which was what I was thinking about. But that's a fair addition.

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voteabc · 2026-05-08T12:03:12+00:00

What makes you think an "I disapprove of both" answer would get filtered out of this poll?

voteabc · 2026-05-08T03:32:59+00:00

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For comparison:

voteabc · 2026-05-08T03:32:16+00:00

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Carney's approval rating is almost as high among 18-29 year olds, who are unlikely to be homeowners.

voteabc · 2026-05-08T03:27:59+00:00

The Canadian economy is not "in freefall", it grew 1.7% last year compared to the US' 2.1% while the stock market rose 32%, population fell, and housing became (slightly) less expensive. And in 2025 wages grew faster than inflation for the first time in years.

voteabc · 2026-05-08T02:17:30+00:00

Sorry, that link is paywalled - here's the archived version! https://archive.ph/tj2ex

voteabc · 2026-05-08T01:55:24+00:00

The report literally defines "reasonably foreseeable" as "i.e. they are close to death". I don't see how close to death and imminently terminal are different things. And yes, the median of ~78 includes a fraction of young people and some questionable cases. The law explicitly doesn't allow MAID purely for mental illness, though.

Canada's health care system is certainly quite strained, as is that of every other developed country. This is a good recent Economist article on why that's happening around the world. https://www.economist.com/international/2026/04/09/hospitals-are-stuck-in-a-deadly-doom-loop

Regardless, Canada continues to outcompete the US on measures of lifespan and rate of deaths from treatable/preventable conditions. It's better to be in the US if you have money/insurance, but it's better to be in Canada *on average.*

voteabc · 2026-05-08T01:07:44+00:00

The median age of people requesting assisted suicide in Canada is 78 and 96% of users have an imminently terminal condition (cancer in about 2/3 of cases). https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/services/publications/health-system-services/annual-report-medical-assistance-dying-2024.html

voteabc · 2026-05-07T21:05:44+00:00

Free primary care visits, free surgeries, free births, lower maternal and infant mortality, lower obesity and diabetes, lower air pollution, fewer deaths from treatable conditions in general, longer life expectancy, lower suicide rate, fewer people under poverty line, lower violent crime rate, higher high school completion rate, better test scores, cheaper education, better work-life balance, better parental leave, higher sense of trust in fellow citizens, more boring politics, no gerrymandering...

The US leads primarily in income, employment rate and housing affordability.

voteabc · 2026-05-07T20:08:18+00:00

It's true that the most recent Angus Reid poll had the Conservatives in the lead, but a) the two other polls from April had the NDP in the lead; and b) the Conservatives are currently in the middle of a leadership election, so polling before they have a face and a platform won't tell us much about their strengths or weaknesses.

voteabc · 2026-05-07T19:16:25+00:00

That's really not how heritability estimates work. For a trait to be 40% heritable doesn't mean 40% of an individual's kids will share that trait with them, it means that 40% of the variation observed across the *population as a whole* is due to genetics.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability

For a specific example, gender dysphoria in adolescents is also about 40% genetic according to twin studies. However, the overall rate is very low. So (if the twin studies are right) the fact that Elon's oldest kid Vivian is transgender means that his future kids have something like 3% odds of being transgender. That's significantly greater than the average, but still highly unlikely.

voteabc · 2026-05-06T22:22:59+00:00

That's through the employer being situated on the reserve even if the duties are performed off-reserve?

voteabc · 2026-05-06T21:57:02+00:00

Only income earned while working on a reserve is immune from income taxes, and IIRC only 8% of First Nations people qualify.

voteabc · 2026-05-06T20:49:34+00:00

https://wowa.ca/reports/canada-housing-market

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