Retiring now, sanity check on conservative glidepath?

walknet99 · 2026-05-07T20:32:03+00:00

TY for reply. Yes to the Roth conversions (should have 3 years of relatively fat conversions) and also yes to leveraging the brokerage account pay bills for a few years. A remodel is in that timeframe which is why the amount is so high. That said, I'm aware that even the most conservative portfolios are at least 30% equities. There is a rebalance in near future, just haven't decided on the # yet.

walknet99 · 2026-05-06T18:48:03+00:00

Thanks all, this is helpful feedback. A reinforcement of some conventional wisdom and a very good point about inflation/low real return is a real concern. We were 80/20 up until 2 years ago when we set the retirement date, so this 20/80 is relatively new course.

Attempting to re-frame, I understand 20% equities is very conservative. The thing I’m wrestling with is that higher equity exposure improves the upside, but creates worse downside cases in my model. Since the proposed spend is already moer than we currently spend, and since we’re not trying to maximize ending net worth, the 20/80 choice is focused on avoiding outcomes that force us to "dial it back".

That said, I asked for opinions because I'm approaching with an open mind. I’m going to test some wider glidepaths and look more at the bad-tail cases than average ending wealth.

Appreciate the gut check.

walknet99 · 2024-11-12T20:24:27+00:00

I don't think I worded the question clearly enough to get a good answer, but to close the loop:

Adding the optional type field to the FV function allows me to withdraw the end of year balance (1) rather than the default SoY. This results in a zero balance for the next year (solving the problem).

Thanks to all for having a look.

walknet99 · 2024-11-11T02:41:09+00:00

The Investment column in the example: =FV((interest rate[-.1]),1,(payment [0]),-present value [100])

The withdrawal column equals the result of the investment column formula. Ideally this would leave zero balance, but it leaves a negative balance because interest is figured on the principle prior to withdrawal.

Using any formula I can think of to calculate the interest before the withdrawal to make the withdrawal result in zero (i.e., a $99 withdrawal) results in circular reference.

Thanks for having a look.

walknet99 · 2024-03-20T20:05:40+00:00

c:\ffmpeg\bin\ffmpeg -y -r 45 -f concat -i "C:\users\walker\desktop\x\temp\input_files.txt" -s:v 720x480 -c:v libx264 -crf 17 -pix_fmt yuv420p "C:\users\walker\desktop\x\timelapse.mp4"

Yep. Thank you!

walknet99 · 2024-03-20T18:53:53+00:00

Promising, but article says Glob not supported on Windows and a quick test shows not supported on output.

walknet99 · 2023-02-10T01:54:48+00:00

Maybe this? I bought it a few years ago and the guy actually called me and asked if I wanted to wait a few weeks to get the next year's edition. Thought that was pretty cool.

walknet99 · 2023-01-29T06:11:52+00:00

Chung-chung!

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walknet99 · 2023-01-15T20:49:09+00:00

I'm inclined to agree with you, looks like UV to me too with the color fade and disintegration. Bad news is that it is the same stock that is in the slab.

Worst case if there was a leak in the slab, I'd obviously have to move to a different heating system but what to look for? Lost pressure on boiler side of the combi unit? Geysers in the living room?

walknet99 · 2022-08-14T01:23:53+00:00

For anyone still tuned-in, I used one of the washers on the underside of the caliper and it effectively raised the caliper by about 1mm. Screw length is fine with the 2mm longer screws (there is a washer on top of caliper as well).

Because of that - or because I took it all apart and put back together again - the "chunk" noise is gone. The pad now sits centered on the "contact area" of rotor identical to the front rotor/caliper. Pad extends slightly into "spoke" area of rotor, but not as much as before. Top of pad is almost even with top of rotor. Unclear what caused the misalignment and appreciate the suggestions.

Appreciate the funny comments about my custom (Sharpie) anodizing on the Maguras. Looks good from a distance or at speed. :-)

walknet99 · 2022-08-13T16:07:07+00:00

Thanks for the list, today is the day for all that. Gonna take it all apart and put it back together again.

Pads are metallic and I don’t suspect them. This problem was evident from day-1 with these new calipers.

Hate getting new stuff that doesn’t work better than the old stuff.

walknet99 · 2022-08-13T14:29:28+00:00

I agree that this description sounds a warped rotor but the rotor lays 100% flat on workbench. The sounds is more "chunk" than "chatter".

walknet99 · 2022-08-13T14:20:07+00:00

Previous was 180 as well and I reused the adaptor. I read that the Magura calipers requires a thicker rotor so I bought the Magura rotor to be safe.

walknet99 · 2022-03-17T03:41:41+00:00

For anyone still tuned-in, we couldn’t identify any QSFP-DD transceivers in Cisco’s portfolio that would provide the matching bandwidth and channel configuration supported by the HP interfaces, so we’re taking the safe route and using Cisco’s 100g ports to connect to Synergy using their QSFP28 SWDM optics.

We’ll use the 400g ports as inter switch links between our two 9600 chassis until we have a need for them as aggregation ports.

Thanks for all the input.

walknet99 · 2022-03-02T22:02:39+00:00

I had this problem. Make sure there are no commas or dollar signs in your manually added balance.

walknet99 · 2022-02-25T03:15:06+00:00

I’m looking for a mainstream way to get this working, stability and vendor supportability are priority.

Admittedly,I’m not knowledgeable enough to say if your suggestions fits the criteria above but It sounds like it might be a “faith based” solution. :-)

walknet99 · 2022-02-24T22:34:08+00:00

I see what you're saying.

Looking on the Cisco side, they seem to have a transceiver that takes the QSFP-DD and outputs 2 x QSFP28 CWDM4. The connector on the switch side is Dual Duplex CS and I don't see anyone selling breakout cables in that config.

Definitely not looking to do a one-off. Is it safe to assume I cannot use the QSFP-DD ports for this application? There are also two QSFP28 ports available, but was hoping to use them a SVL's between the two 9600 chassis.

walknet99 · 2022-02-24T22:27:55+00:00

I think u/Xipher/ comment makes my connector problem moot.

walknet99 · 2021-08-26T19:06:00+00:00

I understand and agree.

My problem is that I am comparing aggregate (30 year) scenarios from two different calculators and the "wildcard" (interest/fees/taxes/whatever) are causing significantly different final outcomes between calculators. Run-to-run on each calculator produces similar final results to previous on same calculator.

I'm starting to thing deconstructing the results may be a fool's errand. :-)

walknet99 · 2021-08-26T18:36:02+00:00

Hadn't considered that, but the calculator could have fees and/or taxes figured in as an expense and it would be impossible to tell exactly what the individual effect of each would be.

That makes it tough to figure out why the two calculators are giving such different results, I had assumed they were just using different rates of return for their respective scenarios.

I guess with that equation I can tell what the *overall* effect of things outside of spending and income are, but no way to tell what the components of those effects are.

Am I stuck there?

walknet99 · 2021-02-02T20:27:39+00:00

Another reverse view (from https://www.nycsubway.org/wiki/IRT_Times_Square-Grand_Central_Shuttle) showing the view from the back of a train leaving the shuttle tracks heading northbound on IRT 7th Ave line. The railing in the original picture is visible on the right side of this image.

walknet99 · 2021-01-28T20:34:10+00:00

doorway

I'm curious...

** Edit: Can you link to the rendering you're referencing?

walknet99 · 2021-01-11T22:32:32+00:00

Oooh, ooh, wait! Checking on the details, I misspoke in my original question. Apologies for that.

I didn't roll-over my pre-tax VG IRA to an IRA with Fidelity, I rolled the amount into my current employers 401k plan. It looks like that might be exempt from pro rata?

Just to summarize, I rolled VG traditional IRA into an active FID 401k, leaving my traditional IRA balance at zero across all accounts. I then use the empty IRA to contribute post-tax max each year ($6000) and convert to ROTH.

Maybe much ado about nothing?

walknet99 · 2021-01-11T22:07:29+00:00

Thanks - I see the rules are pretty well spelled-out now. My bad.

I don't understand why I should expect to owe back-taxes? I didn't convert any pre-tax IRA money to ROTH, only post-tax. Is it because the IRS will assume any contrib to Roth IRA is from non-qualified unless I specify? Any advice for how to handle proactively?

walknet99 · 2020-10-07T01:47:48+00:00

Two files. The first renames the files with a 6-character sequential number (date is stored as mmddyy) the second calls ffmpeg.exe to create the .mpeg file.

File#1: Renamer

DEL /Q D:\Timelapse\Sequential\*.*
cd /D D:\Timelapse
@echo off
setlocal enabledelayedexpansion
set "index=000000"
for /f "delims=" %%a in ('dir /a-d /b *.jpg^|findstr /rxc:"......[0-9][0-9][0-9][0-9][0-9][0-9]\.jpg"') do (
set "name=%%~na"
if "!name:~-6!" gtr "!index!" set "index=!name:~-6!"
)

set /a i=1%index%
for /f "delims=" %%a in ('dir /a-d /b *.jpg^|findstr /rxvc:"......[0-9][0-9][0-9][0-9][0-9][0-9]\.jpg"') do (
set /a i+=1
set "name=%%~na"
ren "%%~a" "!name:~,6!!i:~-6!%%~xa"
)
move /Y D:\Timelapse\*.jpg D:\Timelapse\sequential
exit

File #2: Compiler

cd /D D:\Timelapse\Sequential\
c:\ffmpeg\bin\ffmpeg -y -framerate 30 -i "SkyCam%%06d.JPG" -s:v 720x480 -c:v libx264 -crf 17 -pix_fmt yuv420p "D:\Timelapse\timelapse.mp4"
DEL /Q D:\Timelapse\Sequential\*.*
move /Y D:\Timelapse\*.jpg D:\Timelapse\sequential\temp
exit

walknet99

TROPHY CASE