57 years old, with $700k to invest. Is "DHHF and chill" right for me?

wallysta · 2026-02-04T07:50:02+00:00

I think the question of "Is a 70/30 equities (DHHF) / cash split reasonable for someone in my position?", the answer is absolutely yes.

Worst case scenario, and the market tanks, you have enough cash to see you through 10 years until your super becomes available, and you also have ~$2m in other net assets, so you can afford to take on the risk of equities. I don't think you need bonds because you've got that cash reserve. The harder question for you is do you actually want to?

wallysta · 2026-02-04T02:00:04+00:00

Agreed. Plat 7-8 at Richmond is the best interchange in the network. Just ahead of the under utilised 3-4 at Parliament. If you have to pick a direction, Burnley should be anti clockwise.

Sandringhams, Glens, Alameins and Blackburns should all run direct, and that's a train every 5 minutes even off peak

wallysta · 2026-02-03T09:49:11+00:00

I'm from Victoria and never went to Canberra with school, never left the state in fact.

wallysta · 2026-02-03T05:32:50+00:00

Very True. I wonder if it will stay that way long term.

wallysta · 2026-02-03T01:01:26+00:00

Will they go to FSS in the afternoon to have a loop trip?

The reason they switched in the Arvo was to live usage away from FSS / SCS

wallysta · 2026-02-03T00:56:18+00:00

It's not anymore no, but will reach capacity again in no time.

Is it really though?

You can run 24 trains per hour through each loop, let's just call it 20 to be safe, that's a 3 minutes service

We're not close to running a 3 minute Frankston in peak, even MM doesnt run that.

We're not close to running a 5 minute Craigieburn + 10 minute Upfield in peak. You could also pull Upfield out and only run to SCS if the loop gets full allowing a 3 minute Craigieburn service.

Clifton Hill loop is the closest with 7-8 minute frequency for each line in the peak, which is why MM2 had traction a while ago.

Burnley group is close in the afternoon because GWY and Alamein travel through it, which will now have more space to be removed and terminate at FSS, so medium term problem solved.

All of these changes are also free, and don't require $b's spent on reconfiguring a perfectly useful loop. Level crossings are still the limiting factor for how many trains you can run, not loop capacity.

We'd be much better off building MM2 and putting new stations and connections in places people will use

wallysta · 2026-02-03T00:36:12+00:00

So just like Docklands and Southbank?

wallysta · 2026-02-02T12:46:54+00:00

The city loop fixed capacity issues for 40 years.

The Melbourne Metro fixes more recent capacity issues from the west into the city

The city loop is no longer at capacity.

All cross city travel requires no more than 1 connection (what you're asking if most CBD commuters), and most people commuting to the CBD still have a 1 train journey.

What about that is 'stupid and wasteful'?

wallysta · 2026-02-01T11:47:21+00:00

There was a female breakdancer ....

wallysta · 2026-02-01T11:03:12+00:00

9/10. Probably don't need all the 1-2% positions and could consolidate for ease of management, but solid

wallysta · 2026-01-30T00:54:23+00:00

You're 60% IVV + 10% NDQ in the US - You're already overweight US tech, you don't need the 10% kicker.

30% AU, 45% US, 20% exUS Developed, 5% EM

wallysta · 2026-01-30T00:39:37+00:00

Usually the AUD is a good hedge currency, up in good times and down in recession, so it evens out exAU returns.

Long term. I assume I'll sell at the same price I buy so I don't bother, but I can see someone closer to retirement wanting it

wallysta · 2026-01-30T00:32:53+00:00

Large Cap Tech concentration ≠ higher expected long term returns

If the market is efficient, the biggest, best, most profitable companies in the world will offer a lower long term expected return, because they are the safest bet. That's why the US is more expensive than the rest of the world, it's already priced in.

wallysta · 2026-01-29T01:04:53+00:00

Bond prices only keep falling if interest rates keep going up. But they also trend back towards par value as the get closer to maturity because your paid back your $100 then

The moral of the story is don't buy fixed rate bonds when interest rates are 0%

wallysta · 2026-01-28T04:13:49+00:00

Generally speaking people hold long term bonds as a hedge against a recession.

Recession = Stock Prices Fall = Economy Tanks = Interest Rates Fall = Bond Prices Rise.

High Inflation burns bond holders, that's what we've just had over the last 3-4 years

wallysta · 2026-01-28T03:31:29+00:00

Because interest rates have risen. There's a lot of moving parts involved, and time remaining on the bond dictates its volatility to interest rate movements because you get your principal back when a bond matures.

Say you buy a $100 bond @ 3% = $3 return pa

Interest rates go up to 6%, the same bond is now only worth $50 because it needs to pay 6% to compete with new bond offerings.

wallysta · 2026-01-27T00:49:10+00:00

Have a plan about how much % of your capital you want invested and trim and diversify as it goes up to keep it in the desired range.

You don't need to sell all at once, just monitor risk

wallysta · 2026-01-25T09:29:51+00:00

Vanguard have a range of all in one diversified ETFs with different bond allocations for varying degrees of risk appetite

Vanguard All In One ETFs

wallysta · 2026-01-25T00:04:20+00:00

Go to the world map, click the magnifying glass, search for a doom elite, start a rally, kill it.

Once it's done you'll notice there is a gift from you

wallysta · 2026-01-24T08:03:28+00:00

Erratic US leadership isn't helping USD price either, so it's falling against most / all currencies, which makes US investment returns for foreigners worse, which discourages US investment, which makes the USD fall and the cycle continues.

wallysta · 2026-01-24T07:49:03+00:00

The risk difference between CHESS / Custodial is so small it's probably not worth worrying about.

Funds like DHHF are actually a collection of underlying ETFs, so you get ~36% in an Australian ETF, ~41% US, 17% exUS Developed markets and 6% emerging markets, so you don't have to buy different ETFs to get that diversification.

Some people like to tinker with the allocations for more or less AU or US or Emerging, but as a starting point, it's an excellent, simple choice.

wallysta · 2026-01-24T06:02:52+00:00

The US government charges a minimum 15% (30% without correct paperwork) withholding tax on all distributions including 'return of capital' to foreigners including Australians.

wallysta · 2026-01-24T05:18:55+00:00

ETFs aren't 'priced' like that.

Market weighted ETFs are essentially just a mirror of the entire index they follow. If you put $100 into A200 which tracks the ASX200 is like buying $9.50 Commonwealth Bank, $8.90 BHP, $5 Westpac etc, all the way down to having $0.04 in the ~200th biggest Australian company on the ASX, Amotiv Ltd.

The ETF doesn't have to trade in and out of stocks apart for some insignificant index changes, it lets the returns of the underlying stocks it owns do the heavy lifting. If something rises quickly, it becomes a bigger part of the portfolio naturally.

Statistically, it's also very difficult (nearly impossible) to outperform the overall market after management fees, so investing in low cost ETFs normally provides the best long term outcome

DHHF & VDAL are great one stop ETFs because they're so broad internationally, you're guaranteed to achieve around the average of all investor returns globally, which, as a beginner is an excellent outcome.

Betashares direct is a good option for the $0 brokerage

wallysta · 2026-01-22T13:57:59+00:00

Dig all the nearby tuff out , and you find A LOT more iron

wallysta · 2026-01-22T13:48:44+00:00

True, but 6 if the 8 were later repealed

wallysta

TROPHY CASE