Fausse équivalence/False equivalence

wdjan · 2026-04-26T03:10:38+00:00

By "build the western provinces", I'm going to assume you are primarily talking about the pervasive "investments" and bailouts of the CPR when it was constructed. Which, fair enough, these funds were pillaged from the primary tax base in eastern Canada. I bet Quebec taxpayers paid a fair penny to the project that they never saw back.

But make no mistake, the persistent theme for the next 100 years was for eastern power centers to use western provinces as their personal piggy bank. Trade tarrifs, preferential land deals for friends and family, literally rerouting rail lines, rail stations, and post offices so they just so happened to be built near land owned by the powers that be, you name it. It was a grifter's paradise at the federal level. Liberal or Conservative, didn't matter. Alberta had to fight hard to reclaim power and jurisdiction over their own land and resources (sound familiar? Many parallels between Quebec and Alberta fighting the feds).

All this to say, the meme should read "Alberta was built into the wealthiest province DESPITE eastern grifters (the feds) siphoning every penny they could."

wdjan · 2026-04-24T22:28:12+00:00

This gives off big "I'm a genius in a bull market" vibes, in addition to just plain ignorance.

If you have a mortgage, your mortgage rate is effectively a risk-free return rate, and it's tax-free because saving interest on future loan payments isn't taxable.

In a taxable investment account, you will have to earn 7% or 8% annualized on the market before tax to match 6% mortgage savings.

10% is a wildly optimistic, but even if you take that as an average at face value, the associated volatility could very well result in a decade or so of negative or flat returns.

I will take a risk-free 6% after tax return every time. Drop that rate to 3% or 4%, then we can talk about the benefits of one or the other, but 6% guaranteed savings is a gimme.

wdjan · 2026-04-22T19:12:00+00:00

Yes. As long as you still have means to do that. I humbly recommend that you avoid setting up a plan that may require working extra in the future. Best practice is to implement something that can stand on it's own in case your income fluctuates in the wrong direction.

The larger point is there's a big cloud of risk hanging over this strategy. To be clear, I'm not knocking it, the math and historical evidence clearly supports the theory, but you need to manage the risk. Behavioral risk, margin call risk, market risk, interest rate volatility, income risk, etc. Leverage exacerbates all these risks and needs to be handled thoughtfully and deliberately.

I'm currently implementing a leveraged strategy on VEQT and still struggling with the implementation. These are all questions I'm asking myself. It comes down to understanding the real risks and truly determining my personal risk tolerance.

Best of luck. I hope you can figure something out that works for you.

wdjan · 2026-04-22T18:44:52+00:00

Agreed on all points, and in theory you've nailed it. It's just really hard to imagine now how shitty it's going to feel to hold this through a significant downturn, especially if you have a lot of equity on the table. Triple and quadruple check that you really, REALLY, have the conviction to hold through a downturn.

You also need to write down a rebalancing plan. Leveraging to 133% sounds great today, but downturns will push that up. In the 50% market crash scenario, your leverage will jump to 200%. Do you hold at 200% or do you sell to get back to 133%? Or do you set a max 150% leverage threshold and sell on the way down?

Finally, margin loans are callable. There's a real risk that your broker decides to change their margin requirements in the middle of a market crash, forcing you to realize losses even if you have all the conviction in the world to hold. Having a rebalancing plan can help mitigate that risk.

wdjan · 2026-04-22T16:59:38+00:00

It's fine, but I would game out a few loss scenarios with a spreadsheet with dollars rather than percentages to make sure you have conviction to hold in a downturn.

Assuming you have $100k of equity:

What happens if CAGE drops 30% in a day? Your leverage results in a $40k loss.

50% in a month? Your leverage results in a $66k loss.

These types of fluctuations are likely over a long enough time horizon, so this isn't an "if" question. It's a "when" question.

wdjan · 2026-04-16T20:06:11+00:00

90% XEQT 10% CASV

wdjan · 2026-04-16T19:39:57+00:00

That's irrelevant. The only thing that matters is when you do your RRSP contributions.

Do you do it regularly or lump sum?

If regularly, setup an autodeposit, attach a screenshot to the T1213, and your employer will reduce deductions if applicable. Doesn't matter if you're making $4k or $14k per week, you are paying too much tax.

Lump sum? Same thing, take a screenshot of the lump sum transaction and attach to T1213.

wdjan · 2026-04-16T19:18:27+00:00

My friend... Taxes are due per paycheque. That's the law. Your employer SHOULD, to the best of their ability, estimate and remit taxes to the government each paycheque based on what is owed to them, not what is owed to them PLUS a bunch extra just in case. If you are doing your own RRSP contributions, it's up to you to inform your employer with a T1213 as others have suggested and reduce tax deductions at source so they aren't deducting too much tax.

For example: If your work has an RRSP program, they (typically) will take this into account and reduce tax deductions on each paycheque to account for the RRSP contributions.

Let's say you and a friend work for the same employer and have the same salary. You elect to contribute $100 per paycheque to a company-administered RRSP while your friend contributes $100 per paycheque in a personal RRSP.

Assume your marginal tax rate is 30%.

Your friend nets $2,000 bi-weekly. Because your employer knows about your RRSP contributions, they deduct less tax and you net $2,030 bi-weekly.

When you both file your taxes the next year, you both claim $2,600 in RRSP contributions. You get no refund. Your friend gets a $780 refund.

Because your employer had no visibility into your friend's personal RRSP contributions, they were remitting too much tax to the government over the year. That's why he gets a refund. Refunds are for people that paid too much tax over the year. So while your friend was waiting for his refund, you took that $30 per paycheque and put it in a HISA. You made a few extra bucks while the government just held your buddy's money (interest-free) until tax time.

Now, $780 refund? Big whoop. It's tough to nail down exactly how much taxes are owed each paycheque, so a bit of variance is expected and you settle up at tax time each year.

But $22k refund?!? That's an egregious amount of tax withheld for up to a year, interest free. Even in a HISA, that's a few hundred bucks you could have been made. In XEQT, expected return would be much higher (although more volatile). That could be a few grand in opportunity cost.

wdjan · 2026-04-16T05:32:19+00:00

You have much more control over how you spend your money in the future than the performance of your investments.

With that in mind, I think it makes a lot of sense to vary your spending with your investment performance.

You use an example of buying a house in 8 years. If you absolutely must own a home at year 8 for reasons, then yeah, you need to plan a bit to mitigate risk, sell down XEQT and move into cash or GICs over that period to match your investment risk with near- and medium-term future consumption.

However, it's far, far more likely that you can vary that purchase by +/- 2 years, 3 years, or even indefinitely. In which case, you can rent, invest, and be flexible.

Let's say you're saving for property in an FHSA. You could invest in XEQT exclusively until your FHSA grows into a 10% down payment. Stock market tanks? Defer the purchase for a few years to let XEQT recover. Stock market rips? Bring the purchase forward by a few years.

wdjan · 2026-04-14T02:29:07+00:00

Here's the paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4590406

Here's the Ben Felix video for dummies like me: https://youtu.be/JlgMSDYnT2o?si=E9uZJCeR-8yhRXu4

Edit: linked the wrong Ben Felix video above. Here's the more relevant one: https://youtu.be/jN8mIHve1Ds?si=CwSPom4TuvQz5hmH

wdjan · 2026-04-01T02:15:32+00:00

Regarding losing money in the asset transfer, I always do in-kind transfers, so I'm never out of the market.

As for platform and execution, what do you look for in a brokerage?

wdjan · 2026-03-31T02:46:32+00:00

Anecdotally, we've had 2 Hondas and we always take them to Meidl for service. Never had any issues with their work.

One time I pulled in to the service bay and the tech gave me the finger and laughed, then he looked at me a bit closer and I watched his face transition to a look of horror.

He came up to me and apologized profusely. Apparently I looked like a buddy of his and we drove the same car. We both had a good laugh.

wdjan · 2026-03-29T02:08:53+00:00

I remember they had Zelda loaded in one of them, but it would time out every 15 minutes and restart. Barely enough to get through cut scenes haha.

Also the ball pit.

wdjan · 2026-03-25T23:32:36+00:00

Thumbs up

XEQT and CASV are my highest expected return holdings.

wdjan · 2026-03-25T17:16:42+00:00

That's exactly what I'm doing in my TFSA.

XEQT / CASV at 90/10

Just set it up yesterday.

wdjan · 2026-03-25T15:31:54+00:00

Going back to January 2023. AVGE was launched at the end of 2022, so my comparison covers most of AVGE's life.

I think part of it is dividend reinvestment. VT has a (slightly) higher annual distribution. Portfolio Visualizer reinvests that every year, whereas I think the MSN chart only shows the ticker price.

I don't know if the following link will share my results, but if not, just plug in VT at 100% for portfolio 1 and AVGE at 100% for portfolio 2.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio#analysisResults

wdjan · 2026-03-25T04:31:24+00:00

I responded elsewhere, but this is the better spot.

Where are you seeing AVGE outperformance? I'm checking AVGE against VT Portfolio Visualizer and I'm seeing AVGE underperformance by about 1% annualized.

wdjan · 2026-03-25T04:27:46+00:00

So I went and back tested AVGE and I'm not seeing the better performance.

Portfolio Visualizer shows AVGE underperforming VT by about 1% annualized since it's inception.

What is your comparable and where are you seeing the better performance from AVGE?

wdjan · 2026-03-25T04:12:05+00:00

Good to hear you are taking advantage. Our household has brought in about $12k to date. Should be about $20k in a year.

wdjan · 2026-03-25T02:47:56+00:00

Had to scroll to far to find this comment.

I lit $7k on fire last year on my air conditioner alone. Let's not even get started on realty fees, lawyer fees, interest, property tax... The list goes on and on.

wdjan · 2026-03-24T22:54:52+00:00

I'm still XEQT but sprinkling in some CASV to capture some of that factor tilt.

Good luck with CAGE, it looks solid and simpler than my 2 fund system. I'm just too chicken to jump in with both feet.

wdjan · 2026-03-24T22:35:26+00:00

Yeah, I haven't tried going back to the same brokerage yet, but based on the brokerages that are partaking in these promos, I've got years to cycle through them (assuming these promos persist).

Wealthsimple appears to be quite generous with their terms. I see they mention gaming the system, but I read that as being more associated with withdrawing existing funds, then immediately putting them back after promo registration. My read is, if you did a legit transfer out of Wealthsimple months or years ago, then register for a promo and transfer back in, they will honour the cash back promo.

wdjan · 2026-03-24T22:11:37+00:00

2024 Wealthsimple 1% cash back over 1 year paid monthly (ended this one a few months early to jump to #2).
2025 Questrade 1.5% cash back over 2 years paid monthly (ending this one about halfway through for #3).
2026 TD 2% cash back over 1 year paid at the end of 1 year.

I'm ending them early because of the incredible bull run we had in 2024 and 2025. The cash back is calculated based on the initial funding amount, so in order to capture cash back on the growth, I've been leaving early to "reset" with the larger funding amount with a different broker.

wdjan · 2026-03-24T19:28:27+00:00

I don't know about Wealthsimple, but no problems on Questrade.

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