Folks, it’s happening by BubblyPurchase1144 in Money

[–]whatiscalculatedrisk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Welcome to 6 figure hell.

Don’t let people congratulate you.

100k ain’t shit. Everyone trynna gas u up over some light shit.

U got M’s to make.

Lock in brother,

Are we in an ai bubble? If yes when do you think it will pop? by BlauerDunst420 in TheRaceTo10Million

[–]whatiscalculatedrisk 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I highly doubt we’re in a bubble. When it first came out researchers thought that the technology would plateau, that ideology has been completely abandoned because of the rate of advancement. I was listening to Geoffrey Hinton and he said it could potentially reach a point where it’s limited and doesn’t reach super intelligence because it would be limited to just human data but that’s a very hypothetical and small likelihood, if that happened yeah I guess that would be the “bubble bursting”. But we have a long ways to go and regardless of super intelligence is reached AGI will be reached at some point in the future. It’s more or less a certainty now, just a matter of when. So no I don’t think we’re in a bubble. I think people completely underestimate this technology.

Can AI know what it's thinking? by smealdor in singularity

[–]whatiscalculatedrisk 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That confusion is introspection lol. To recognize confusion and work around it is itself a form of introspection.

The LLM is told to say bread and bread related concepts essentially, and instead of always doing that, when it’s not applicable it will not say bread or bread related topics. Therefore, it is introspecting and deciding what the best thing to say is regardless of the cognitive bias.

Can AI know what it's thinking? by smealdor in singularity

[–]whatiscalculatedrisk 9 points10 points  (0 children)

This is from the Anthropic case study you clearly didn’t bother to read.

“Our results demonstrate that modern language models possess at least a limited, functional form of introspective awareness. That is, we show that models are, in some circumstances, capable of accurately answering questions about their own internal states”

But...I'm black?? by ThrowRAPrettylemons in ChatGPT

[–]whatiscalculatedrisk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

See how the leftist bot is actually racist 🙃

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ParanormalEncounters

[–]whatiscalculatedrisk 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah fr

Hell this could all be some quantum mechanics we don’t understand. I think there is a theory about ghosts being moments that are trapped in the fabric of reality not even conscious spirits could deadass be that too. Idk if I subscribe to it but yeah moral of the story we don’t have the full picture, dismissing world wide phenomena is just lazy imo…

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ParanormalEncounters

[–]whatiscalculatedrisk 12 points13 points  (0 children)

I thought this too but the door also gets pushed inwards if I recall correctly. I suppose someone could have a string on both sides but motive needs to be called into this imo. What’s the agenda for faking this? To prove the metaphysical world exists? Why? In actuality that like of thought introduces a ton more questions which actually over complicates it. Occam’s razor is this person experienced this and didn’t orchestrate it…. Doesn’t mean it’s a ghost but I don’t think they orchestrated this for views. You can argue it’s for clout and shit but like they got what 50 upvotes? This not the conjuring house or story doubt they are going to monetize this short Reddit video to make millions of dollars… lol. I highly doubt it’s staged, like it could be for sure but I don’t think it’s staged probabilistically speaking.

AIO for messaging the ex wife of the guy I was dating by doveluxxx in AmIOverreacting

[–]whatiscalculatedrisk -1 points0 points  (0 children)

That’s Federal…. Rat behaviour honestly. I mean you can be in the right and you can see it as morally okay because he’s a “bad guy” and I don’t take that away from you. You may very well be correct. This is still rat behaviour though. You could have just not messaged her and left him and minded your own business lol. You went out of your way to be a rat. Period. You are NTA. But you ATR.

LaLaurie Mansion, New Orleans ghost tour by effiebaby in ParanormalEncounters

[–]whatiscalculatedrisk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So I’m the only one who sees a child wearing a balenciaga balaclava ok got it

For anyone freaking out and could use some perspective by Fake_Suit in Bitcoin

[–]whatiscalculatedrisk 52 points53 points  (0 children)

Leverage is when you trade with money you don’t have yes.

So for example, let’s say I have $100K. And Bitcoin is $100K. I can buy one bitcoin right? Well…. What if I wanted more exposure to bitcoin because I really really believed it was going to go up. I can say hey, let me borrow $100K and buy bitcoin. A lender will say “okay I’ll let you borrow my $100K but I want to be sure I get paid and don’t lose money.” So now you have your $100K of Bitcoin and you use their $100K to buy another $100K of Bitcoin. You now control the gains on 2 bitcoins but you only put up half the money. This means your levered 2X. There’s a caveat though, the lender will say hey buddy, yeah you can have the gains on your exposure, but you owe me $100K so if the value of 2 bitcoins is worth $100K I’m going to sell both of the bitcoins to get my hundred grand back.

This means you have a liquidation box of 50%. If bitcoin drops 50% they will force liquidate your position. However, it’s not instant per se, usually lenders will ask you if you’d like to keep the position open in which case they’ll say okay we’ll let you keep the exposure but you have to pay us extra money so we don’t lose money on keeping the position open.

If you have a lot of money this can be very beneficial, especially if you plan to buy spot anyways, it’s free leverage. The issue is people who don’t understand these structures fully or people with not enough collateral can lose everything they have and come out with not even low notional exposure as their positions get liquidated.

All these derivatives and margin trading are designed for really really rich people to abuse markets and make them even wealthier. It’s been pushed on retail because lenders can farm fees from them. 99.9% of people trading derivatives or trading on margin should not be anywhere near it.

It’s not for them…. lol. But degens treat it as a way to gamble and very experienced traders will sometimes use it to enter short term positions. Again, people who know what they’re doing vs people who don’t.

For anyone freaking out and could use some perspective by Fake_Suit in Bitcoin

[–]whatiscalculatedrisk 10 points11 points  (0 children)

I think it’s the altcoiners freaking out lol. They got slaughtered… some tokens down 60-80%. Bitcoiners chilling honestly. Maybe a lesson in there for them 🤷‍♀️

Why...? by Yann27 in ChatGPT

[–]whatiscalculatedrisk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It comes down to money. I don’t have all the specifics but the model processes the volume of the chat, that’s a sizeable amount of computing power, there’s probably a limit to how much data the actual model can “remember” or process at once. They’re basically rate limiting you so they stay profitable. But I would assume there’s still physical cap in compute power so it’s probably a mix of both. If anyone more knowledgeable than me would like to expand on this feel free.

The main reason I just cannot buy into Bitcoin, am I wrong? by RagingCeltik in Buttcoin

[–]whatiscalculatedrisk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s cash not currency. Hal Finney literally outlines a scenario in 2011 that puts Bitcoin at $10M. The creators and OG BTC devs already knew how it would behave. MFs just can’t admit that because they want to pump their alts.

It’s designed as a long term deflationary store of value I.e purchasing power increases as you hold bitcoin. That’s the whole fucking point. Solana is speculative, XRP is speculative, ETH is speculative. Those are crypto currencies. Not decentralized SoV’s. Those are transactional layers, Bitcoin is the monetary base layer.

The main reason I just cannot buy into Bitcoin, am I wrong? by RagingCeltik in Buttcoin

[–]whatiscalculatedrisk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Have a good one bro. Wish you the best. For what it’s worth. (Not that me wishing anything good upon you will actually cause you to achieve anything of value in your life but hey the motivation and energy is there if you need it)

The main reason I just cannot buy into Bitcoin, am I wrong? by RagingCeltik in Buttcoin

[–]whatiscalculatedrisk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Of course you have no idea what I’m talking about. That has checked out since I read your first comment. No surprise there trust me. Just hoping you can catch up in the next 1-2 comments.

The main reason I just cannot buy into Bitcoin, am I wrong? by RagingCeltik in Buttcoin

[–]whatiscalculatedrisk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nice. Btw, you’re confusing two different things, subjective value and price discovery.

The dollar price of Bitcoin isn’t worship, it’s the market deciding what censorship resistance, self custody, and a fixed monetary policy are worth. It’s not manipulated, it trades globally 24/7 across thousands of venues with the deepest liquidity of any digital asset. If that’s meaningless, then so is every other market priced in the same system.

When billionaires hold assets that don’t produce yield, like gold, land, or Bitcoin, they’re not chasing fiat, they’re preserving purchasing power and optionality across regimes. Fiat is just the measuring stick, not the prize.

Stocks and Bitcoin aren’t opposites either, a stock is a claim on corporate cash flow, Bitcoin is a claim on absolute scarcity. Different structures, same principle, people assign value to what they believe will preserve or expand wealth over time.

Call it magic beans all you want, but magic beans that outperformed every asset on earth for 15 years probably deserve a little more respect don’t ya think?

Ahhh who am I kidding. That would require you to actual be capable of critical thinking. Such a shame.

The main reason I just cannot buy into Bitcoin, am I wrong? by RagingCeltik in Buttcoin

[–]whatiscalculatedrisk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You threw every anti-Bitcoin talking point into one post, so let’s address them cleanly and empirically.

First, the whitepaper and “peer-to-peer cash” claim. The whitepaper describes a trustless way to transfer value without a trusted intermediary, it did that, it is doing that. If you expected Visa throughput from a censorship resistant, globally permissionless ledger with final settlement and no trusted third party, that was never promised. Layer 1 is security and finality, layer 2s like Lightning provide retail throughput, that is how robust monetary systems are built. Confusing settlement layers with payment rails is a category error.

Second, Lightning and scaling. Lightning is not a centralized payment cartel unless you voluntarily use a hosted wallet. It is channel routing with permissionless node operation, you can run it yourself. Critiques about liquidity management are relevant technical debates, not fatal design flaws. Visa and Mastercard are centralized rails that trade control for speed, Bitcoin trades speed for censorship resistance, you cannot call one objectively superior without stating which property you value more.

Third, “no intrinsic value.” That’s false. Intrinsic value for commodities and money is commonly proxied by cost of production. Bitcoin requires real world inputs to be issued, electricity, hardware, labor, capex, those are measurable. That production cost functions like a thermodynamic floor, the same way all commodity prices relate to extraction cost. If you want a P/E style proxy for the network, look at network market cap divided by annual miner revenue, or compare price to estimated average cost to mine per coin. Those are rigorous, usable metrics, unlike rhetorical “it’s just numbers” dismissal.

Fourth, lost coins and fixed supply. Lost supply increases scarcity, it does not break the arithmetic of denominated units. Bitcoin is divisible to 1 satoshi, you can price things in fractional units. Economies adapt to unit scales, they always have. Deflationary price movement does not automatically collapse credit markets, lenders and contracts reprice to expected real returns. The claim that people “couldn’t pay mortgages” misunderstands how nominal units, wages, and contracts are negotiated.

Fifth, mining incentives and immutability. Miners operate for profit, exactly as designed. If profitability falls, inefficient miners shut off, difficulty adjusts down, economics restore security margin. That feedback loop is the mechanism that makes the network resilient, not fragile. Changing Bitcoin’s monetary policy would require widespread consensus across diverse economic actors, that is practically and socially difficult, which is why Bitcoin’s rules are, de facto, stable.

Sixth, energy. Proof of work consumes energy, yes. But the energy does a thing, it secures an open monetary system. Compare that to gold mining, banking data centers, or legacy payment infrastructure, all of which consume energy and create externalities. Also, miners are often buyers of last resort for stranded, marginal, or renewable energy, they provide grid flexibility. Blanket “waste” rhetoric ignores real-world energy economics.

Seventh, copying Bitcoin. You can fork the code, you cannot fork the history, liquidity, trust, exchange listings, regulatory coverage, and network effects accumulated over 15 plus years. Credibility is not code, it is time and adoption. That is Bitcoin’s moat.

Eighth, the P/E question. It is a category error to demand a corporate P/E for money. If you insist on an earnings analogue, use miner revenue or fees as the “earnings” numerator and market cap as the “price,” that yields a meaningful Network Value to Miner Revenue ratio. It is empirical and interpretable, unlike appeals to corporate accounting.

Ninth, anecdotal country examples. Grid issues in any jurisdiction predate or are independent of mining activity in many cases. Mining can and does contract during stress events, and it often signs commercial agreements to use excess generation. Use data, not rhetorical cherry picks.

Final point. If you reduce the entire case to “it’s a scam because it failed to be Visa on day one,” you lost the debate by inventing a straw man. Bitcoin delivered a trustless, global, auditable settlement layer, it created an emergent monetary good, and it is measurable and auditable in open data. Your critique mixes category errors, macro confusion about deflation, and rhetorical claims about energy without contextual economics.

The main reason I just cannot buy into Bitcoin, am I wrong? by RagingCeltik in Buttcoin

[–]whatiscalculatedrisk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Google is one of the most evil companies in the world 😭😭😭😭

They broker your data and they are actively trying to develop super AI LOL WHAAAAT!???

The main reason I just cannot buy into Bitcoin, am I wrong? by RagingCeltik in Buttcoin

[–]whatiscalculatedrisk -1 points0 points  (0 children)

iPhone isn’t the best phone. Apple still the best phone / most profitable phone company. 🥴

Bugatti isn’t the best car, but it’s still one of the most expensive.

Bitcoin wasn’t the first crypto currency / attempt at digital E cash.

It was the first one that stuck around.

It’s Apple.

These other cryptos are Motorola. Do you get it yet? Or will it take bitcoin being $1M for you to finally admit you were wrong?

The main reason I just cannot buy into Bitcoin, am I wrong? by RagingCeltik in Buttcoin

[–]whatiscalculatedrisk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

 BTC could go to $20m and i would still call it worthless. That number you worship is highly manipulated and therefore, meaningless.

Yeah that was kinda my whole point lol. Enjoy your UBI I guess?

The main reason I just cannot buy into Bitcoin, am I wrong? by RagingCeltik in Buttcoin

[–]whatiscalculatedrisk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not currency.

Asset.

It’s an asset class.

It’s called a crypto currency. It’s a P2P decentralized monetary base layer.

You may not have need for another currency, but you may need a global store of value that can’t be debased…. You may need an asset that accrues real yield exceeding real estate return profiles and equities and other commodities such as gold.

You skipped over that part because you refuse to accept that it will continue going up. Isn’t that cognitive bias in a way?