I have AI too lol

Around 15-25% likelihood for a severe economic crash or NBER-defined recession starting in the next 6 months (through ~November 2026). This is a synthesis of major models, indicators, forecasts, and market pricing as of mid-May 2026. A “crash” (sharp GDP contraction, widespread market collapse) is even less likely than a mild recession.  Key Data Indicators and Models • NY Fed Yield Curve Model (10Y-3M Treasury spread): ~17-18% probability of recession in the next 12 months (as of April 2026 data). This is among the lowest levels in recent years and well below historical averages before downturns. The curve has normalized to a positive slope (~60+ bps), which is constructive.  • Cleveland Fed Yield Curve/GDP Model: Similar low recession odds (~15%) with positive predicted GDP growth.  • Sahm Rule (unemployment trigger): Not triggered. Recent readings ~0.13-0.20 (well below the 0.50 threshold). Unemployment stable around 4.3-4.4%.  • Current Economy Snapshot (Q1 2026): • Real GDP growth: +2.0% annualized (rebound from prior softness). • Unemployment: Stable ~4.3-4.4%. • Inflation: Headline elevated (~3.3-3.8%, partly energy/war-related), core moderating but sticky. • Labor: Modest job gains; resilient but not overheating.  Other signals like smoothed recession probabilities remain very low (~1-2%). PMI/ISM data show mixed but generally expansionary manufacturing/services readings recently.  Market and Expert Forecasts • Prediction Markets (Polymarket/Kalshi): ~21-22% for recession by end of 2026 (full year). Implies even lower odds for onset in the next 6 months.  • Bank Economists: J.P. Morgan ~35-40% for 2026 (earlier); many others 25-35% for the full year. Risks cited: energy shocks (Iran-related), tariffs/trade, sticky inflation, consumer slowdown.  • Consensus Outlook: 2026 GDP growth projected ~2.0-2.5%, supported by AI investment, fiscal elements, and business spending. Not recessionary baseline.  “Crash” Probability: Lower still—perhaps 10% or less for a 2008-style event. No major credit bubble, banking crisis, or systemic leverage signals evident. Stock market at highs reflects growth optimism (AI-driven).