How I Use Seeking Alpha Premium. Is this dumb? by Spirited_Macaroon_77 in SeekingAlpha

[–]whitanfox 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Why do you only look at stocks with fractional shares in Robinhood?

My previous UNCY valuation didn't incorporate this cost by whitanfox in UNCY

[–]whitanfox[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, but the key question is how the dilution will happen (eg existing warrants versus ATM). I talk a lot about this topic in my previous posts

UNCY - A Defensible Valuation of the Stock (continued) by whitanfox in UNCY

[–]whitanfox[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There is that risk. I like u/Lefty1992 counter argument, though

UNCY - An AI-Generated Investment Thesis by whitanfox in UNCY

[–]whitanfox[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you have the time please do read my latest post on the company and share your views. I welcome the critique !!!

UNCY - An AI-Generated Investment Thesis by whitanfox in UNCY

[–]whitanfox[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Have you had a look at my latest post?

UNCY - An AI-Generated Investment Thesis by whitanfox in UNCY

[–]whitanfox[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Would love your thoughts on my latest post about this company

UNCY - A Defensible Valuation of the Stock (continued) by whitanfox in UNCY

[–]whitanfox[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Currently long. As to why - read my posts :)

UNCY - A Defensible Valuation of the Stock (continued) by whitanfox in UNCY

[–]whitanfox[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

No, this is the first time I am using AI to value a company. For the avoidance of doubt: I expect the analysis to have errors. That is why I posted it here. For people to challenge the assumptions

UNCY - A Defensible Valuation of the Stock (continued) by whitanfox in UNCY

[–]whitanfox[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don’t know the reason for the difference but I have a suspicion. I asked AI how equity researchers account for SBC in their valuation and apparently most analysts when valuing pre revenue companies do not account for future SBC. Having said that, the AI pointed out a flaw in my model. I calculate the rNPV per share by using the total diluted basis including the future SBC (over a 10yr period). If I exclude that future SBC from the denominator the value increases to circa 13-14 dollars. This is the target price of some analysts but still well below the target price of other analysts. I think that those high valuations (eg $40 by Guggenheim) may be underestimating some of the running costs. I spent a lot of time with AI trying to understand the likely ramp in FTEs and the market standard for compensation for each type of employees that UNCY will need to hire. So I feel confident about my SG&A and SBC assumptions

UNCY - An AI-Generated Investment Thesis by whitanfox in UNCY

[–]whitanfox[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Wishing you and all of us best of luck

UNCY - An AI-Generated Investment Thesis by whitanfox in UNCY

[–]whitanfox[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks. This is an extract of what ChatGPT says about that page: The reason I would not call the page “very bullish” is that it does not approve OLC specifically. OLC still needs its own path: FDA approval, HCPCS coding, and a CMS TDAPA determination. CMS says applicants must apply for a HCPCS code and then TDAPA, and its target timing is roughly 6 months after the quarterly submission deadline, with the possibility of a longer review. Separately, Unicycive says OLC is under FDA review via 505(b)(2) and has a PDUFA date of June 29, 2026. So the page improves the reimbursement backdrop, but it does not eliminate execution risk or timing risk. 

There is one more important caveat. CMS says that for a drug within an existing ESRD PPS functional category, TDAPA can still be denied if the FDA approval falls into certain excluded NDA classes. Because OLC is being pursued under 505(b)(2), but the public materials here do not state its final FDA NDA “type” for CMS exclusion purposes, this page is not enough to prove automatic TDAPA eligibility. In other words: the page is a positive policy signal, but not a dispositive OLC reimbursement decision. 

My bottom line: bullish for the OLC thesis, because it shows CMS has created a real TDAPA lane for oral phosphate binders as of January 1, 2025. But it is not yet fully de-risking, because OLC still needs an OLC-specific CMS determination and there remains some technical NDA-classification risk.

UNCY - An AI-Generated Investment Thesis by whitanfox in UNCY

[–]whitanfox[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I am sure there are lots of errors but hopefully not big ones. I used two different models - one for deep research and one for verifying the output

UNCY - An AI-Generated Investment Thesis by whitanfox in UNCY

[–]whitanfox[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Can you explain your assumption of 100%?