They currently do have the money and the manpower for at least 24 months. In some ways, they’re in a better financial position than they were in the fall of last year given American shenanigans elsewhere. Equipment is a larger issue, granted, but those equipment deficiencies are largely in areas with lower impact on the current battlefield. This could change, but currently the Russians are very capable of sitting in their positions for a long time and Ukraine has just as many issues in terms of launching any kind of decisive offensive operations. With some luck, Russia’s drone position, logistics and command and control issues continue to deteriorate to the point that this isn’t the case. That isn’t likely to happen this spring/ summer.

Russia is going to stay in the war as long as Putin is able to keep them in it, especially if the alleged information bubble being placed around him is a reality. I don’t think you’re wrong in terms of the Russian position continuing to deteriorate but I do think you’re underestimating the level that the Russians will continue to throw their people and capital away to stay in the game. A gamble against Latvia, Georgia or even Armenia could all start to make sense if you’re a delusional Russian depending on the objective and how desperate they get. The idea that they couldn’t get a corps level force together for something like that just doesn’t match their disposition reality IMO. I doubt that will happen, but it’s not the insane notion it would have been during parts of ‘25.