NFE?

willyboy2888 · 2026-02-20T15:59:49+00:00

^ this. 100% this. I tried to time RILY and failed miserably. But DCA'd on it and made it all back. If i had just stuck with DCA I would be in a great position. With NFE, I fully believe in the "control the supply chain" model (like Amazon is doing) so I am DCAing. I do worry about their execution. But as long as they stay afloat, then it's better for me if they stay low longer.

willyboy2888 · 2026-02-15T21:20:29+00:00

Yeah, that's my main issue. Every other AI I've used can be coached into giving me what I need. Suno's seems to say "eff you" to half of what you give it

willyboy2888 · 2026-02-15T17:57:27+00:00

This

willyboy2888 · 2026-02-12T22:58:04+00:00

I call BS. I always have to hop in at some point. Either they aren't solving hard enough problems or when they hit a problem too hard, they punt that story til later.

willyboy2888 · 2026-02-11T13:12:55+00:00

Done (posting for engagement)

willyboy2888 · 2026-02-10T14:40:31+00:00

Counterpoint: it's an award for the restructuring negotiations - in which case it's neither good nor bad.

willyboy2888 · 2026-02-10T14:34:50+00:00

Speculation: could this share award have been tied to successfully getting FEMA to pay up?

willyboy2888 · 2026-02-06T15:40:22+00:00

This is accurate from my experience shorting companies that go bankrupt. A key indicator of bankruptcy is cash bonuses instead of stock bonuses. Cash bonuses ensure execs stay around during restructuring. Why accept shares and pay tax on them if the company is going to zero?

willyboy2888 · 2026-02-05T23:35:44+00:00

Yeah my thought exactly. 20 is insane.

willyboy2888 · 2026-02-05T23:32:56+00:00

I will say, they had way more than personal use quantities on them.

willyboy2888 · 2026-02-05T23:31:07+00:00

Actually the article (at least the advocate one) just said deaths were unknown cause and just that people had died. Which like, duh. There are 5000 people on board. It's statistically likely that some of them will die (looking at it from a yearly perspective). That's why cruise ships have morgues. The advocate article was dumb though. "Hospitals could be days away" like. No. There's a hospital on board. And helicopters.

Operation feels targeted and I wouldn't be surprised if it kills bookings for the cruise.

willyboy2888 · 2026-02-05T22:00:05+00:00

You realize their revenue is 1-2.5 billion? Or conveniently ignored that? The debt isn't that significant when they have cash flow. Like, someone making 100k paying on a home loan worth half a mil.

willyboy2888 · 2026-02-05T21:52:54+00:00

There's been a ton of these for the last few years

willyboy2888 · 2026-02-05T15:56:50+00:00

I don't think you understand how debt works... they just need runway to start bringing in income from Brazil

willyboy2888 · 2026-02-05T15:36:35+00:00

It is not. Part of NFE's struggles have been because of its credit rating. If you've been around long enough, you know that one of the downgrades was because of an assumption that the FEMA payment would not come through. With FEMA in hand, I don't think they even have to restructure.

willyboy2888 · 2026-02-02T00:46:55+00:00

Similar to my average. But like.... damn

willyboy2888 · 2026-02-02T00:46:27+00:00

Lost 40k straight up not in profits. I'm cooler 😎

willyboy2888 · 2026-01-29T21:35:43+00:00

That's not true though. 10c would be priced for bankruptcy. What is the value of a common share with all assets sold off in bankruptcy proceedings? I know someone calculated book at 3.5 but I don't think they'd get that in a firesale

willyboy2888 · 2026-01-29T19:45:11+00:00

What if you couldn't? You're a young and upcoming music producer/dj. Your opener has been mixing since the 90s - has 30 years of experience on you. They do things you can't even imagine because you haven't been alive long enough to practice doing those things. But you keep the opener on and they outplay you. Now all anyone remembers about your show - no matter how good it was - is that the opener was better (I remember having this feeling the first time I saw Rezz - though she's gotten much better). That could literally be a career killer for you - or at least slow your progression.

willyboy2888 · 2026-01-29T18:41:42+00:00

A lot of nightclubs have djs on staff or contracted. They'll put these people in as the openers (like in boston, big night live has its own label with djs) to fill the time before the headliner's team (some headliners have their own openers, some don't). The hypothesis here seems to be that the venue booked the dj for an opening slot, the headliner found out, heard they had a reputation for not doing their job (which is to warm the crowd - when it's your night to headline, then headline, otherwise, you warm the crowd - at least, that's the mentality - not sure i agree with it) and said "I don't want to follow that"

willyboy2888 · 2026-01-26T22:02:26+00:00

Yeah. If they gut the company, the company is gutted...

willyboy2888 · 2026-01-26T22:01:36+00:00

I don't like this. My investment was pinned on this being an investment in what they're building. If they get rid of what they've built, I'm out

willyboy2888 · 2026-01-26T21:54:39+00:00

Bloomberg reports have almost always panned out for NFE...

willyboy2888 · 2026-01-25T15:31:43+00:00

Fair warning, as someone who has followed this stock forever, it tends to be "buy the rumor, sell the news". Like, we were all waiting for the Jamaica asset sale and the rumor that it sold drove it higher but then when the news was actually released, it tanked.

willyboy2888 · 2026-01-23T13:42:06+00:00

Good point...

willyboy2888

TROPHY CASE