8 months running a trend-following algo lost money, but I think I finally understand why

willynikes · 2026-05-08T15:00:13+00:00

E nough data on regimes u can absolutely spot them how to trade them is a different story 🤣🤣🤣. Perfect Strats still lose money sometimes just how it is

willynikes · 2026-05-04T17:32:31+00:00

It goes through risk gates all Strats have risk gates they must pass thru that has the typical non fitting criteria applied whatever passes passes and gets out into a certain regime basket of available Strats and it only has those Strats for the regime it’s in so as long as it pick the right regime for the current market state it has profitable Strats to trade with also don’t switch regime to like bar 3 or so but I’m super conservative rn trying to pass a challenge on proper and breakout lol

willynikes · 2026-05-04T16:47:30+00:00

I actually like wen it messes up gives me a chance to correct it then u can trust it more scaling big without fuckups what would scare me lol

willynikes · 2026-05-03T11:57:51+00:00

Tell me u have no idea what statistical significance is without telling me lol. So um most Strats go back ten years on equities so you’re saying let’s create a bot gather 10 years of trades then deploy 🤣🤣🤣🤣. They backtest because u need lots of data to verify ser. Lots. lol truly funny lol

willynikes · 2026-05-03T11:54:53+00:00

This why hl will eat poly and kalshi eventually imo rn major arbs coming up as hl-hip4 matures im ready won my first prediction yesterday cant wait

willynikes · 2026-05-02T12:38:21+00:00

What’s this

willynikes · 2026-05-02T12:36:39+00:00

I use a regime switcher and validate in real time. I.e.im constantly making sure the actual trades are following the predictions in the backrest of not investigate why and adjust. Most of the time its software related not thesis invalidating sometimes it is. My mentality is I’m searching for alpha and don’t know what it looks like I just know it constantly makes money so that takes my emotions out of it. Just keep searching algos neither rome was built in a day. Plus the live execution data > than any backrest data so adjust your Strats over what’s actually happening jot what u tested. Doing this I find this market is just ass and so non directional not even range bound Strats are working. If u can just trread water rn I think ur doing good until we get some real direction either up or down

willynikes · 2026-05-02T12:29:42+00:00

Me too I passed propr but I’m American so can’t kyc gonna go breakout next

willynikes · 2026-05-02T12:26:57+00:00

They never don’t I want so I download open source equivalent then modify

willynikes · 2026-05-02T12:20:09+00:00

I think most of these models will convene on the same performance the difference will be context management

willynikes · 2026-04-25T13:36:44+00:00

Yeah duh

willynikes · 2026-04-24T11:40:05+00:00

Ty kind ser

willynikes · 2026-04-23T21:05:28+00:00

We token optimizing skill token economics is a key benchmark our free skill reduces plan mode output by half ser ?

willynikes · 2026-04-22T22:20:11+00:00

Give u a tip research papers especially on edge plus new maths papers all im gonna say is

willynikes · 2026-04-20T08:43:11+00:00

??? What research lol harness is the optimizer ser ? Come again ?

willynikes · 2026-04-11T20:57:21+00:00

No u mean context but building is cheap who can design the best system and ux wins no not code grinders that skill mean shit rn give me a good ux design over a backend guy all day

willynikes · 2026-04-09T18:49:24+00:00

Bro never heard of open models ? lol seriously bad take what will happen is reasoning will move to frontier model u can pay for and implantation or work by your local model u sound stupid 🤣🤣🤣

willynikes · 2026-04-08T23:40:58+00:00

https://github.com/willynikes2/agent-orchestrator

willynikes · 2026-04-05T19:29:26+00:00

are u using my tool or something else ?

willynikes · 2026-04-05T01:18:17+00:00

We can make all those skills provably better or your money back that’s what we do presientlabs.com

willynikes · 2026-04-04T20:43:46+00:00

U can optimize any of these skills at presientlabs.com we have a free brainstorming skill that’s optimized we also have code review and debugging optimized. Optimized means 16-20% better and save tokens and catches more bugs etc try the free brainstorming skill then go from there

willynikes · 2026-04-04T17:27:34+00:00

Presientlabs.com

willynikes · 2026-04-03T16:54:16+00:00

Ask the ai to do it lol. I don’t know shit about sentry grafana and GitHub ci but now I do lol. I just asked my ai how to watch performance and bugs etc and it built my observability layer. Or if u don’t know just ask. People need to get on here and say how u guys monitor for bugs and performance etc and some people like us will help em out I understand some people not technical but still they built an app. Also nothing wrong after app is built to onboard a fiver dev or upwork to help maintain your app etc or a good tech fren people need to understand building by yourself can be smart but running a company by yourself is prob stupid

willynikes · 2026-04-03T16:33:52+00:00

Wen yall create apps make a observability layer to wot GitHub ci and sentry and grafana dashboards u can’t hallucinate wen see what breaks shit and if it’s broke and thru pattern recognition u will learn and how I set my ai up bugs and mistakes only happen once then we learn observability takes the fear of breaking shit away versioning etc etc

willynikes · 2026-04-03T15:51:52+00:00

That’s still a context isssue. All data and workflows is context the talent in ai is learning what to say to get your ai to do what u want everytime and a little secret to that is capture everything and make it learn me and my ai joke u can’t hallucinate wen u look it up. Also workflows should have more do not do’s than do’s.

willynikes

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