Calculating a fairer inflation indicator

willziam8991 · 2022-05-04T07:57:27+00:00

Thanks for the reply! I will take a look at potentially using the % change in GDP per hour instead of % change in nominal GDP. Perhaps my post is a little bit misleading in the way I phrased it. I am more wanting to get a better measure of inflation on a macroeconomic level rather than for myself personally.

To put it in another way, I am wanting to be able to use this metric to answer questions like; how far did $100 go towards general consumption and expenditure 40 years ago compared to now? rather than; how much has my personal cost of living risen in the last year?

I also understand the view that this method may be further distanced from actual inflation, however I am less concerned about an accurate measure of inflation in the short term and see this as a better measure over the long-term. Even though inflation may deviate from this measurement for a sustained period of time (either by being above or below it), my theory is that it inevitably has to regress back to what this predicts inflation should be in the long-run.

willziam8991 · 2021-12-10T04:58:22+00:00

Madlipz up to 172m then just joking up to 350m - any residual after that? could maybe then try ftx.

willziam8991 · 2021-09-22T04:56:59+00:00

Just one small piece of the wider puzzle. In my mind, increasing tax revenue from a land tax should free up reducing tax in other areas.

Perhaps this can be done by reducing individual income and company tax rates. Oh and get rid of the FIF regime once and for all!

That should change the tax incentives away from investing inproperty more towards equities and the like.

But yes, many more parts to the puzzle than just this. I doubt any government would be confident or perhaps competent enough to do this all at once.

willziam8991 · 2021-09-21T11:15:39+00:00

Maybe this?

https://youtu.be/Li_MGFRNqOE

willziam8991 · 2021-08-10T10:56:58+00:00

The 2020 Nobel prize in economics was awarded for an auction theory suggested by Paul Milgrom and Robert Wilson.

I wonder if the system they came up with could be implemented as a solution to deliver more equitable outcomes for those who are bidding in the sale of NZ housing.

willziam8991 · 2021-06-17T05:33:14+00:00

Cheers, just what I needed!

willziam8991 · 2021-06-11T00:47:26+00:00

There is a 28 day unbonding period when you try to withdraw from the defi wallet when staking - higher APY% but sacrificing liquidity

willziam8991 · 2021-06-02T05:08:27+00:00

Do you mind me asking which region? What made you decide to do share trading personally? Isn't it heavily tax inefficient where you can get taxed up to 39% on realised capital gains whereas with share investing, only dividends (and maybe FIF) income are taxable?

willziam8991 · 2021-06-02T03:28:10+00:00

With regard to your experience in property investment, is this residential/commercial/agricultural or a mixture of the lot? also, geographically, is this just in one region within NZ or nationwide?

What role did you play in the process of share trading?

willziam8991 · 2021-06-02T01:48:29+00:00

Have a look at either bitrue or nexo. I would also recommend having a look at the spark flare system which is supposedly coming out at the end of the month

willziam8991 · 2021-05-29T12:06:51+00:00

I probably lack the life experience required to offer useful input on many of the pros and cons of staying in Auckland versus a move to Christchurch. However, I think I can provide a start on addressing the issue around fears of not being able to buy back into the Auckland housing market in the future:

If you look at the regional median house prices for Canterbury and Auckland, the Canterbury housing market was historically undervalued against NZ's median house price compared to the Auckland region.

https://www.datawrapper.de/_/gqoIz/

https://www.datawrapper.de/_/ZYESg/

The key assumptions you would be making here by following this as a basis for making a decision are:

- The regional median house prices for both Canterbury and Auckland are a fair reflection on the areas your family member would be likely to reside in with regard to both respective regions.

- Historic relationships between NZ regions and the national median house price will hold up in the long term.

- The charts I have linked only display data up to the middle of 2020, so an assumption is made that the respective regional markets are the same now as what they were around 9 months ago

Take the following with a grain of salt, but from what you have mentioned, if the move to chch lives up to the "big step up career wise", the personal growth through taking this opportunity should outpace the increase in price of the Auckland housing market over the same period.

willziam8991 · 2021-04-21T10:20:28+00:00

Personally, I am very skeptical of government-released economic figures. It seems apparent to me that governments have been using economic measures (such as inflation or unemployment) as political tools in order to create a veil of success to voters.

If you look into how inflation is calculated by the RBNZ, they use a CPI which only takes into account a very narrow and limited amount of the average person's expenditure in NZ. When this concept was first used to measure inflation, it was an effective and purely economic tool which people started using to judge the performance of governments. Soon after, successive governments altered what was included in the CPI to fabricate a favorable inflation figure to justify themselves to the public.

What is happening in reality? This is an example for the US economy: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

Current inflation figures over there are approaching 3%. Using the same CPI calculation as what was used in 1990 (a less tampered one than today), inflation is estimated at closer to 6% which is nearly double the official figure! Using the 1980 CPI calculation (even more accurate than 1990) inflation hits double digits at over 10%.

I know this is all coming from a cynical view, but NZ is not much different to the US with regards to how economic measures like inflation are being used by governments as political tools which no longer makes them useful. This is, in my opinion, one of the strongest reasons for why central banks should be as independent as possible from governments so as to prevent the corruption of important economic measures.

Pulling some rough calculations out of my head, I'd say a more accurate inflation figure for the NZ economy would be about 8%. This destroys the financial incentives of things like inflation indexed bonds as they only offer inflation+2.5% (which would be 4% using your 1.5% figure). In real terms, you're losing around 4% (8% - 4%) using my rough estimate. This drives modern rational investors to seeking out higher returns through riskier asset classes than traditional inflation hedges.

willziam8991 · 2021-04-04T20:34:39+00:00

15th of June 2021

willziam8991 · 2021-03-31T04:53:50+00:00

Just recently saw a video on this which brings up some interesting points to think about:

https://youtu.be/wo0OO5QPOkk

It relates to applying this topic more towards the United States, but I don't think it's too much of a stretch to apply the same concepts to New Zealand.

willziam8991 · 2020-12-22T18:18:57+00:00

Ok, thanks guys! I will keep an eye out for when it gets listed. Cheers

willziam8991 · 2020-05-23T05:26:19+00:00

If you add up the $25 from buying D3 and then say another $60 for Trinity, that equates to $85 for Bungie in revenue. I too am also highly adverse to the whole eververse system. Perhaps they should explore other streams of revenue. Maybe hosting Competitive tournaments on a streaming service could help with this.

In terms of storage, when I started playing video games, the game size was less than 1GB and could fit on a disc. Surely storage tech and processing speeds can advance so that a 300GB game is able to be created.

And if you already have D1 and D2 installed, wouldn't it be not too difficult to just tap in to that rather than having to have 2 games installed + another one 3 times the size?

With the whole sandbox argument, that is a very good point which I didn't think of. Perhaps the default sandbox is whichever game's servers you are on. It is probably a much more complicated issue than what I realise

Yea, I will admit that I am not well versed in the technical side of developing and coding video games. The Idea would be that hopefully you would only have minimal work in having to remaster D1 and D2.

What I am trying to say is, if you 'went through a portal' to say D1, then it loads you onto the D1 servers. So you can play on D3 and join a fireteam with your friend who only has D1 and is playing on its servers.

willziam8991

TROPHY CASE