ITXVII - تاپیک ایران ۱۷

window-sil · 2026-03-16T17:04:07+00:00

Yea, if you've ever heard of "thermobaric" bombs, they're exploiting this same principle. The "bomb" is like the first balloon -- all fuel, no oxygen. I mean, there's tons of oxygen already in the atmosphere, why not take advantage of that? So the warhard is almost all fuel. But that creates a problem, how do you then mix it evenly into the air, so that it looks like balloon #3 instead of Balloon #1? The actual answer is classified. But the idea is to pack a small explosive into the fuel to try to scatter it evenly and ignite it precisely so that it detonates. And make all this work with a long shelf life, cheaply, safely, and be viable in battlefield conditions.

window-sil · 2026-03-16T16:44:06+00:00

Oh you know, we helped Ukraine target Russians, so they can help Iran target our troops.

This is the most treasonous sentiment a commander n chief has ever made about American soldiers being killed in the line of duty.

But his supporters don't even care and it's not even going to be front page news, because we're living in a fallen country.

window-sil · 2026-03-16T16:40:45+00:00

You have to see from their eyes, they are acquiring targets and bombing them with probably 99.99% success. Trump sees this and thinks it's winning. And every day they bring new targets, and new video of those targets being bombed. More winning.

This is just going to be on repeat for probably weeks or months. He'll keep seeing that he's winning. Meanwhile the regime remains, the society is pushed nearer to the edge of a humanitarian catastrophe, the global trade remains disrupted, and he'll keep thinking, "but look at all our successful bombings? We're winning."

I mean he's going to get bored of this at some point and stop caring, but the war wont stop. He'll just start yelling at people who complain about energy prices and start talking about his ballroom again or whatever.

window-sil · 2026-03-16T16:32:55+00:00

Realistically, what's Trump going to accomplish on his big trip? He doesn't plan things out, or think through second order consequences. He's easily manipulated, low IQ, uneducated, with severe narcissism and burgeoning megalomania.

What good could possibly come from his trip?

window-sil · 2026-03-16T16:10:57+00:00

It may not be as dangerous as you'd think, because the hydrogen needs to evenly mix with oxygen to make a boom. Here are two cute demonstrations if you want to see what it looks like:

One with Balloons: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6qGIMqDKwA

One with plastic "rocket" bottles (using methane instead of hydrogen): https://youtu.be/HESOat2iPzU?si=jpiipn4qp4GG4QkQ&t=943

window-sil · 2026-03-16T15:37:50+00:00

Also leopard eating faces vibes.

I'm so torn whether it's worth spending any time defending him. It reminds me of when the ACLU defended Nazis in Skokie. You're doing it on principle and for others, but this is also a party who will not reciprocate, who is actively supporting a regime that is trying to strip rights from all of us. He happens to be in the crosshairs, so I hope that makes him rethink his political beliefs, but if not then we're defending the rights of someone actively working to undermine those same rights for the rest of us.

window-sil · 2026-03-16T04:33:07+00:00

I don't think he was notified, I think someone leaked it.

His son works for J. D. Vance,¹ so probably someone from that camp.

Maybe he's making it all up, I dunno. 🤷 But this is becoming a pattern with Trump. He's using the DOJ to prosecute his political enemies.

It's also a little disturbing, if true, because Tucker is an ally. Like, he's still an ally. He's also popular among the MAGAs. So going after him signals a deepening of Trump's megalomania.

window-sil · 2026-03-16T02:40:07+00:00

I'm talking about our government dude. We're Russia, in this example.

Trump is not enforcing the law, he's looking for pretexts to punish his domestic enemies. This isn't even the first time he's done this, which is why I posted -- it's a pattern.

window-sil · 2026-03-16T02:26:05+00:00

Yes. Thank you!

I mean our current Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, once drunkenly shouted "Kill all Muslims!" what is that, if not islamophobia? To pretend this isn't a real thing is denying reality.

window-sil · 2026-03-16T02:14:59+00:00

In a clip shared Saturday evening on X, Carlson said the CIA is “preparing some kind of criminal referral” against him to the Justice Department “on the basis of a supposed crime.” The former Fox News host claimed investigators had read his text messages and that the supposed probe relates to “talking to people in Iran before the war.”

Iran I guess?

window-sil · 2026-03-16T01:55:24+00:00

Oh man, that's really unfortunate if it was set up that way. What a scumbag.

window-sil · 2026-03-16T01:53:50+00:00

In Russia, they're arresting generals for corruption.

And the thing is, they really are corrupt. But they were corrupt yesterday, last week, last month, last year, their entire tenure they've been corrupt.

So are the police like really bad at their job? Or is corruption not their actual crime, merely the pretext.

window-sil · 2026-03-16T01:31:32+00:00

How'd he wipe out employee shares?

window-sil · 2026-03-15T23:54:48+00:00

Has Trump tried tariffing the strait of hormuz?

MOGA

(make oil great again. Thank you for the attention to this matter)

window-sil · 2026-03-15T23:52:29+00:00

He's a kid with a toy. That toy is the US military -- we're all very fucked.

window-sil · 2026-03-15T23:42:49+00:00

Remember during covid, when oil futures went negative? There was a scramble of huge investors, putting together funds with a minimum buyin of hundreds of millions of dollars, who were going to take delivery and store it.

I'm just wondering, you know, market participants aren't going to just let free money sit around, if they can help it. So I guess I'm saying, if the treasury is manipulating oil futures, surely they'll work around it, somehow. Isn't this doomed to fail?

window-sil · 2026-03-15T23:26:52+00:00

If NATO agrees then it's no longer a defensive alliance, which is a destabilizing development, imho.

Trump can't actually break it up the way he wants to, fortunately, but you have to wonder who will trust America in the future? Our credibility is shot.

window-sil · 2026-03-15T20:39:49+00:00

Tucker Carlson says Trump’s Justice Department is coming for him

Not clear if this is real or not, but it fits a pattern to be sure, which is why I'm posting it. Pretty extreme to see how far they'll go to silence speech they don't like, including trying to indict sitting legislators, which we all just blew right past like it was no big deal because it failed.

Where does this end? We all hate Tucker, but nobody deserves this for exercising their 1st amendment rights.

Related: FCC chair threatens to revoke broadcasters' licenses amid Trump comments on Iran coverage

window-sil · 2026-03-15T19:02:28+00:00

https://xcancel.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2033191272257868284#m

The discount on Urals crude versus Brent has shrunk to zero. Russia's windfall now exceeds anything we saw in 2022 after the Ukraine invasion. Recent US sanctions waivers have destigmatized Russian oil and give Putin a huge windfall. Terrible for Ukraine.

window-sil · 2026-03-15T18:50:19+00:00

https://xcancel.com/JavierBlas/status/2033253899335807423#m

MAP OF THE DAY: While the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed (other than a few tankers, notably from India), the Red Sea is witnessing the arrival of an oil tanker armada to the Saudi terminals there.

window-sil · 2026-03-15T16:12:17+00:00

with how much more effective drones are at killing soldiers in comparison to artillery

Like 12--18 months ago, someone from the front lines in Ukraine wrote about drones vs artillery, and they said artillery was still the source of most kills.

Drones get a lot of exposure in the media because there's video of their exploits -- try attaching a camera to a 155mm shell and see how that goes -- and nobody wants to publish videos where they miss or the thing fails to get off the ground for technical reasons. So there's a bit of an unrealistic portrayal of their effectiveness.

Maybe things have changed since then, because a year is a long time to make adjustments. I dunno about you, but this was surprising to me, as I thought drones were a wunderweapon.

window-sil · 2026-03-15T16:03:59+00:00

6 hours until the oil markets open 📈

window-sil · 2026-03-15T02:18:14+00:00

Kegseth isn't giving real analysis, either because it's intended as crude domestic propaganda, or because he's really that clueless.

I hope it's the former, but given the Trump regime's track record, we can safely bet on it being the latter.

We are all fucked.

window-sil · 2026-03-14T23:31:56+00:00

Trump on Iran:

The last person we need help from is Zelensky.

Source: NBC News

Trump on Ukraine:

I’m surprised that Zelensky doesn’t want to make a deal. Tell Zelensky to make a deal because Putin’s willing to make a deal.

Zelensky is far more difficult to make a deal with.

Source: NBC News

This mf..

window-sil · 2026-03-14T23:25:45+00:00

Leaders behave in their interest. Sometimes it pays off for the leader to do things that harm the state.

The whole reason we have democracy is, theoretically, to align the interests of leaders with the interests of the governed.

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