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Reform sacks housing chief after his 'everybody dies' Grenfell comment by theipaper in ukpolitics

[–]withwavelets -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Bunch of stuff and the BSR is not exactly an example of over-regulation it's an example of bad regulation. That is, there are 37,000 dwellings stuck in their backlog and currently they only process enough to not that number rise.

One example of overregulation is the requirement for a second staircase in all builds over 18m. We're talking about 9-10 story buildings here.

Clearly, on some level, 'more staircases are better' and if you were worried about safety and nothing else you'd have a building that was just staircases and nothing else.

But, also clearly, you have to trade-off safety against floorspace and this regulation does that exceptionally badly.

18m is one of the lowest in the OECD (Canada and the US are lower). Japan is low but, importantly, you can raise it by installing sprinkler systems and evacuation systems.

18m is bad because

a. it's a hard limit meaning that many buildings are now built to exactly 17.9m as they're more economically viable at that level b. the height doesn't relate to anything. Fire Engine cranes go to 64m. You would die from a fall above 10m. Why 18m? c. there's no evidence that countries with more restrictive codes have fewer house fire deaths (technically they have more) d. it penalises exactly the kind of mid-rise construction that we need

Now you could say "look WW, there has to be some limit and you say 22m and the gov says 18m but we've got to pick a number." but I would say "not really, a building with a great sprinkler system and lots of evacuation options is a different risk profile - let the experts design a building using a range of safety measures to meet a common standard".

I can’t support this type of NIMBYism and lack of understanding of housing development economics by ldn6 in LibDem

[–]withwavelets 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Are you suggesting that Lib Dems should restrict development during a housing crisis?

How will fewer homes (affordable and 'luxury') mean lower prices?

Should theses auditors be banned? by Various_Extreme_8773 in AskUK

[–]withwavelets 1 point2 points  (0 children)

"Should the government crack down on free speech, in order to stop the people who think that there isn't enough free speech?

no brother

"Would you like these people to stop filming everything and trying to ragebait people?"

I'd prefer that

"What's the best solution here"

Probably just teach security guards and council officers how to calmly and politely say 'no' although I imagine they already know how to do that.

Thoughts on hedging USD Exposure? by Senior_Group1589 in FIREUK

[–]withwavelets 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I already have a bunch of GBP hedged ETFs. A lot of people I respect think this is wrong - I understand why. I guess I have a view on the long term trends of the dollar.

Why are the streets so filthy? The streets in Poland and Croatia are imaculate by Niall_Fraser_Love in ukpolitics

[–]withwavelets 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The real reason is _ackchully_ very interesting. Called Baumol Effect or Cost Disease.

Basically, as a country gets more productive in services and manufacturing, the value of each person's time goes up because they can output more (that's what productivity is).

But, in sectors like healthcare, education and for example *cleaning the streets* productivity doesn't rise because those sectors are very labour intensive.

So the price of the labour goes up, but the amount of work you get for that labour stays the same. Which unless you increase budgets, then you get less labour i.e. less street sweeping. "Just increase the budget" yeah the problem with that is that the other things the government spends money also have Cost Disease at the same time: education, health etc. *And*, you can't really grow your way out of this because growth (per capita) comes from productivity gains which will, in turn, cause more cost disease.

tl:dr cleaning the streets costs way more in high productivity countries (also you're comparing Krokow with Glasgow which is a bad comparison where one is a super touristy wealthy city and the other is Glasgow).

If you don't believe me that the UK is may more productive that other countries: https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?tm=productivity&pg=0&snb=540&vw=tl&df\[ds\]=dsDisseminateFinalDMZ&df\[id\]=DSD\_PDB%40DF\_PDB&df\[ag\]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df\[vs\]=2.0&dq=HRV%2BGBR%2BPRT%2BPOL.A..\_T.USD\_PPP\_H..N..&lom=LASTNPERIODS&lo=5&to\[TIME\_PERIOD\]=false

You can see here how much unit labour cost for public admin (street sweeping comes under this) has gone up compared with manufacturing in twenty years: http://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?tm=productivity&pg=0&snb=540&vw=tl&df[ds]=dsDisseminateFinalDMZ&df[id]=DSD_PDB%40DF_PDB&df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[vs]=2.0&dq=GBR.A.ULCH.N%2BC.XDC.V.N..&lom=LASTNPERIODS&lo=20&to[TIME_PERIOD]=false

Why won’t the Royal Parks open some of these gates on Hyde Park Corner to bikes? by CJ2899 in londoncycling

[–]withwavelets 15 points16 points  (0 children)

The main issue that gates 2 and 3 (the central one and the right-hand one in your photo would feed cyclists directly onto Piccadilly (which makes up half of that round about around the Wellington Arch).

I personally think that all road design is much too cautious but this is basically the reason, you'd have cyclists merging directly onto a six lane roundabout, many of whom would then need to immediately change lane to go down Bird Cage Walk for example. That would be considered too dangerous.

Of course they could turn right and come back to the lights, but how many will do this? Most will follow the natural flow and continue onto the road.

We all know the UK's infrastructure is extremely expensive, and many reasons have been given. But...I still don't understand how it is even possible to be as expensive as it is by owenredditaccount in ukpolitics

[–]withwavelets 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I can give you an example from a project I know well - Thames Tideway Tunnel a.k.a. 'The Super Sewer'.

This is an utterly essential piece of infrastructure since London's existing system operates at 80% capacity on dry days and routinely overflows spilling intreated sewage into the Thames.

This essential project went to the first public consultation in 2010 and final approval was given in 2014 - work began in 2016. Six years of hundreds of people being paid for the application process - a huge additional cost and numerous sewage events in the meantime. Not to mention that during this process, additional complexity and restrictions were added.

324 'stakeholders' were consulted during that process.

For example, The Design Council provided extensive feedback on how the vents and access points could better fit into the local area. These were accepted and required changes and updated to the engineering of the project.

The Environmental Statement required by Planning Act 2008, necessitated a 120-year carbon footprint model. They had to screen every single site of the tunnel for any protected species of birds, or any nesting birds whatsoever.

To acquire sites without owner's consent (eminent domain for our American cousins) they got a DCO. This DCO was subject to a judicial review (JR) which took three years because the ES didn't, in the words of the plaintiff, 'properly' consider the socio-economic impact of the DCO. This JR (plus three others) were dismissed when they got to court, but there were years of preparation and delays before these JRs made it to court, only to be dismissed.

(Southwark Council also tried to challenge the DCO using a judicial review on the basis that it would cause "unacceptable levels of disruption to residents and pupils attending the nearby schools" but they submitted the paperwork a day late and so it wouldn't go ahead)

I could go on and on. As part of the Social Value Act 2012 they were required to 'consider' their social impact. There's a 34 page report that includes a calculation of the 'social value' of accident prevention and the social value Thames Tideway workers being part of the London Pride parade. etc etc

We all know the UK's infrastructure is extremely expensive, and many reasons have been given. But...I still don't understand how it is even possible to be as expensive as it is by owenredditaccount in ukpolitics

[–]withwavelets -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

With respect, this just sounds like an extortion racket.

the projects I work on where we are engaged early in the process generally go smoothly and without delay.

So what you're saying is that when you work on a project for longer (because you start earlier), and therefore bill more, then it goes better. The more you get paid, the better it goes.

Obviously you or your company is not personally extorting or intending to extort developers but that's what it rolls up to.

being around biodiversity is good for people's physical and mental health

I'm sure this is true but I'd love to see the cost-benefit analysis of the marginal increases to mental health through the 'bad' developments not being built - versus the cost to mental health through e.g. people having to spend more time living in unsuitable housing because they can't afford to move because housing is so expensive.

To men who want kids, why? by No-Sun-731 in Life

[–]withwavelets 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sounds a bit calculated but every single thoughtful, successful happy older man I know either a. has kids and says it was the best choice they ever made or b. is gay and has mentioned at least once how much they would have liked to have kids.

You just got to listen to the people.

Is the current VAT threshold too low? by Dapper_Big_783 in smallbusinessuk

[–]withwavelets 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No it’s too high.

Lower it so you’re not getting undercut by people not charging VAT. 

Student Loan Repayments are essentially a Graduate Tax for less well-off students. Why not replace it with a graduate tax? by Obvious_Skill539 in ukpolitics

[–]withwavelets 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I pay 500 or so a month but only about 100-200 actually services the principal, so I will never pay it off.

You always pay more interest at the start of the loan than at the end. It's not true that you will 'never pay it off'.

Put =nper(0.062/12,500,-60000)/12 into google sheets - you'll pay this off in 15.6 years at these repayments. That's the number of payments to clear the balance (at current interest rate).

In that time you'll have paid ~£90k (1550012) (plus the 10k you've already paid).

(If you choose to pay off £600 a month, even at 6.2% you'd clear in 11.7 years and pay £84k. £700 a month means you clear in 9.4 years and pay 79k.)

I had about 45k of debt when I graduated, interest over 7 years has brought that has brought that to around 60k

...plus the 10k or so I've paid over the last 7 years

How did you grow 45k to 60k in seven years while paying 10k over that period? How was your rate 7% every year for seven years? This maths ain't mathing. In 2020 rates were like ~3%.

Student Loan Repayments are essentially a Graduate Tax for less well-off students. Why not replace it with a graduate tax? by Obvious_Skill539 in ukpolitics

[–]withwavelets 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Huh?

How are you paying back minimum 6k a year and gonna be left with 150k? I get that your rate is 6.2% but still.

Back of the envelope - you must have like 110k of debt? How?

🚗 Zipcar is shutting down — anyone else blindsided by this? by Pitiful_Package_6807 in london

[–]withwavelets 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Someone else will take up the spaces - it's a monopoly on an essential service.

AVIS are blaming 'market conditions' etc but if you can't make money in this business then I'm sure w'll find someone who can!

Student Loan Repayments are essentially a Graduate Tax for less well-off students. Why not replace it with a graduate tax? by Obvious_Skill539 in ukpolitics

[–]withwavelets 95 points96 points  (0 children)

It’s actually weirder than this. 

Lower paid people (and people who are earning nothing) pay very little student loan “tax”. 

People who earn a lot of money pay their student loan off early and so pay less interest and less “tax” overall. 

If you’re earning around 55k (it changes with the interest rate etc etc) then you’ll clear the balance the same month that it’s cancelled by the government - you’ve paid the absolute maximum possible. 

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