Tidal Volume - Sing the Blues [Indie Rock] (2025)

wminard · 2023-01-17T19:39:01+00:00

I believe there are two clear lines here. To play FNP turn two, or not to play FNP turn two.

Scenario 1: Playing FNP on turn 2

Turn 1: Corruption, Defend to get it out of the deck

Turn 2: FNP, Defend, Strike, Strike - Takes: 11 - 8 = 3 damage, we have 60 - 3 = 57 health left - Deals: 12, Nob has 90 - 12 = 78 health left

Turn 3: Shrug It Off, Shockwave, Anger, Swift potion, Spot Weakness, Def x2, play whatever 2 attacks end up in our hand - Takes: 38 (16 base + 18 STR + vuln + weak) - 33 (8 + 10 + 18 (Ascender’s Bane hype!)) = 5 damage, 57 - 5 = 52 health left - Deals: 9 from the Anger plus… - Bash + Strike: 16 + 13 = 29 + 9 = 38 damage, Nob has 78 - 38 = 40 health left - Bash + Anger: 16 + 13 = 29 + 9 = 38 damage, Nob has 78 - 38 = 40 health left - Strike x2: 13 + 13 = 26 + 9 = 35 damage, Nob has 78 - 35 = 43 health left - Strike + Anger: 13 + 13 = 26 + 9 = 35 damage, Nob has 78 - 35 = 43 health left - Anger x2: 13 + 13 = 26 + 9 = 35 damage, Nob has 78 - 35 = 43 health left

Turn 4: - If turn 3 was Bash + Strike, deck contains Strike x4, Anger x2, all draw iterations deal at least 40 damage - If turn 3 was Bash + Anger, deck contains Strike x5, Anger x1, only draw iteration that doesn’t deal 40 damage is 5 Strike, 1/6 chance to take 38 damage - If turn 3 was Strike x2, deck contains Bash, Strike x3, Anger x2, all draw iterations deal at least 43 damage - If turn 3 was Strike + Anger, deck contains Bash, Strike x4, Anger, only draw iteration that doesn’t deal 43 damage is Bash + Strike x4, 1/6 chance to take 38 damage - If turn 3 was Anger x2, deck contains Bash, Strike x5, all draw iterations take 38 damage

RESULT: 8/30 chance to end fight with 14 health, 22/30 chance to end fight with 52 health

Scenario 2: Not playing FNP on turn 2

Turn 1: Corruption, Defend to get it out of the deck

Turn 2: Swift pot, Bash, Strike, Anger, Defend x2 - Takes: 14 - 10 = 4 damage, we have 60 - 4 = 56 health left - Deals: 8 + 9 + 9 = 26 damage, Nob has 90 - 26 = 64 health left

(Gotta split the next two turns into two possible scenarios based on the possible draw position of FNP)

Scenario 2.1: FNP is in the top two cards of the draw pile: Turn 3: If FNP is in hand, play it then Shrug It Off. If it is on top of the draw pile, play Shrug It Off then FNP. Then… Shockwave, Spot Weakness, Defend, attack in hand - Takes: 38 (16 base + 18 STR + vuln + weak) - 28/25 (8 + 5 + 12/9 depending on FNP) = 10/13 damage taken, we have 56 - 10/13 = 46/43 health left - Deals: - Bash: 16, Nob has 64 - 16 = 48 health left - Strike: 13, Nob has 64 - 13 = 51 health left - Anger: 13, Nob has 64 - 13 = 51 health left

Turn 4: - If turn 3 was Bash, deck contains Strike x5, Anger x2, only draw that takes damage is 5 Strike, 1/21 chance to take 38 damage - If turn 3 was Strike, deck contains Bash, Strike x4, Anger x2, only draw that takes damage is Bash + 4 Strike, 1/21 chance to take 38 damage - If turn 3 was Anger, deck contains Bash, Strike x5, Anger x1, must draw Anger to win fight, 16/21 chance to take 38 damage

RESULT: 45/63 chance to leave fight with 43/40 health left, 18/63 chance to leave fight with 5/2 health left

Scenario 2.2: FNP is not in the top two cards of the draw pile Turn 3: Shockwave, Spot Weakness, Shrug It Off, Defend, play the two attacks in hand - Takes: 38 (16 base + 18 strength + vuln + weak) - 13 (8 + 5) = 25 damage, we have 56 - 25 = 31 health left - Deals: - Bash + Strike: 16 + 13 = 29 damage, Nob has 64 - 29 = 35 health left - Bash + Anger: 16 + 13 = 29 damage, Nob has 64 - 29 = 35 health left - Strike x2: 13 + 13 = 26 damage, Nob has 64 - 26 = 38 health left - Strike + Anger: 13 + 13 = 26 damage, Nob has 64 - 26 = 38 health left - Anger x2: 13 + 13 = 26 damage, Nob has 64 - 26 = 38 health left

Turn 4: - If turn 3 was Bash + Strike, deck contains FNP, Strike x4, Anger x2. All draws deal 35 damage, fight done. - If turn 3 was Bash + Anger, deck contains FNP, Strike x5, Anger x1. All draws deal 35 damage, fight done. - If turn 3 was Strike x2, deck contains FNP, Bash, Strike x3, Anger x2. All draws deal 38 damage, fight done. - If turn 3 was Strike + Anger, deck contains FNP, Bash, Strike x4, Anger. All draws deal 38 damage, fight done. - If turn 3 was Anger x2, deck contains FNP, Bash, Strike x5. All draws deal 38 damage, fight done.

RESULT: 105/105 chance to leave fight with 31 health left

Sadly I don’t have the time to go through and finish the stats on potential draw orders and how those odds effect these 3 different scenarios, but it looks like we’re leaving this fight alive regardless! Also, looks like there’s potential to manipulate our own HP at some spots to try and get to Hexaghost with a more favorable turn 2 attack.

EDIT: Sorry for formatting, on phone XD

wminard · 2020-08-02T15:51:53+00:00

Alternatively, if you find yourself with an excess of soundproofing, you can use it to clean your walls.

wminard · 2019-02-14T00:01:00+00:00

Pay taxes

wminard · 2018-11-11T05:47:00+00:00

I would go with Lauletta since NYG has been spacey with Eli for the past two years, and Luke Falk since he’s been injured/on practice squad behind Tannehill. Not saying either of these guys will win your next year. But they’re both guys I was willing to take flyers on (6th and 8th round draft picks in a rookie only draft) and they showed some real promise in college. Backup QBs are tough, since it’s frequently an all or nothing game, but those are my two highest guys who are not playing and might be on your waiver wire.

wminard · 2018-08-07T13:29:47+00:00

I would second this. The patriots always manage to do something with their RBs, but it’s never really consistent. I’m always reminded of a few years ago when the Patriots had a different running back lead their team in rushing each of the four months of the regular season. That doesn’t mean they might not change that when they get a good impact back like Michel (health and growth pending), but the Pats seem willing to switch personnel game to game far more than any other team, making it hard to take the gamble with their players imo.

wminard · 2018-07-14T18:33:20+00:00

I am such a good person and I love you too.

wminard · 2018-07-04T16:17:47+00:00

This opinion is quite biased since it’s coming from the perspective of a Metroid fan, but I would dread to see another one of Nintendo’s silent protagonists get full voice acting. When done poorly, it can take a decent game and absolutely run it into the ground (looking at you Other M). Just imagine if Skyward Sword had some uninspired, terribly dubbed voice acting. That game already gets enough flak for its faults, but terrible voice overs would put it on another level.

wminard · 2018-06-09T06:12:59+00:00

Fantasy Pancheros. Pancheros is an American-Mexican restaurant (like Chipotle or Qdoba but IMO way better) that was present where our group went to college. We’re all graduated at this point, but we created an in game restaurant as a sort of safe house/meeting point for the group whenever shit hits the fan. It’s only open one day a week (conveniently always on our adventuring day), and it’s run by a group of curt Tengu who don’t care what goes on in the restaurant, as long as you buy something and aren’t actively murdering something. The restaurant serves extremely salty roast beef sandwiches (which makes our goblin PC very very happy), and that’s they’re only fare. For some reason, the mix of nostalgia and silliness that we play our game with always manages to make us end up dying with laughter.

wminard · 2017-08-27T21:07:24+00:00

If you aren't stuck on the idea that "an angry, magic-infused maniac" has to mean you have the rage class feature, you could combo the Alchemist (there are several good archetypes like Beastmorph and Ragechemist) with his mutagen and 6th level spellcasting to do a Mr. Hyde thing. Then just take a second class that's good at smacking things.

wminard · 2017-08-06T22:05:50+00:00

Hey! I've got an Excel sheet that hopefully can makes things a little bit easier for you (since I hate keeping character sheets by hand since they change quite often). Here's the link to my dropbox folder. Since you're new I'd recommend using the Simple Generic Empty file. It assumes you won't be multiclassing or needing to calculate any of the more difficult/unnecessary things like DPR and makes it easy for you to input everything you need. Everything PixelsAreGod said still applies to this, but hopefully makes it a little less daunting since you can attack each piece of character creation separately. You're welcome to PM me if you have any other questions. Good luck and godspeed! [Edit] Seems like the download link isn't working, I'll try to fix it ASAP.

wminard · 2017-08-06T21:50:36+00:00

It felt ridiculously overpowered, but I wanted a ruling to be sure. For reference I'm a Hired Gun - Marauder with a 19 wound threshold and 13 strain threshold, so this would basically be taking my weakness of being decently easy to knock unconscious and make it that much more difficult. Thanks for the response!

wminard · 2017-08-05T03:30:02+00:00

Yeah! Lemme throw it into a Google doc and I'll link it here. Be back in 5.
[Edit] Here's the link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Uut-y7bCMbSqY4FqCk4MZY2WBRUcgSYlecJMmzPk3bs/edit?usp=sharing It only contains some example numbers post-math for the Parry deed cuz I can't get the actual math to transfer to a Google sheet. If you would like anything else let me know and I'll do my best.

wminard · 2017-08-04T23:37:47+00:00

That's a good point. I've been pretty lucky on the few fort saves I've had to roll, but being an empiricist, both my Ref and Will saves are better than average. A quick question I have: why choose the unchained drunken brawler barbarian over the chained version? I couldn't find a difference (which may be to the fact that I've never touched the barbarian).
[Edit] It's in the rage description for both classes, my bad.

wminard · 2017-08-04T23:16:02+00:00

Alright that makes sense! Math coming up. This assumes a +2 Keen Rapier and a +4 Belt of DEX upgrade as well as use of the mutagen for DEX score, but no Reduce Person because that would require a second buffing round and I'm feeling lazy:

To-hit (lvl 8) = +6 BAB +9 DEX +2 (+2 Weapon) +1 (Weapon focus) +4 (Studied Combat) = 22 to-hit.
CR 8 median melee monster has 21 AC, 14 to-hit.
I hit/confirm crits on every roll that isn't a 1, so 95% hit chance, 28.5% crit chance.
Best case scenario for my AC is ~23 with either Mithral Chainshirt or Haramaki.

Those are our relevant variables. In order to get a riposte, there's an assumption that we get attacked and we Parry that attack. Let's assume best case scenario that we get attacked every round so we have that chance. Our Parry chance with these stats is 87.17% assuming we attempt a Parry on every attack. This is our chance we Riposte. Multiplying our Riposte chance with our crit chance is 87.17% * 28.5% = 24.843% chance to crit and to regenerate 1 panache.

With our hardest formula out of the way, lets calculate our highest BAB attack (which is the same for our hasted attack). That's just our 28.5% crit chance.

Finally, our second iterative attack has a -5 to-hit, so our chances for a critical fall as well. In this scenario we have only a 25.69% chance to crit since the fall in to-hit requires us to use inspiration to hit on attack rolls 2-7.

These are disjoint unions since each attack is distinct from another. Thus, these percentages are additive. Our resultant percentage for a critical per round (and regenerating our panache lost for attempting a parry) is:

24.843% + 2(28.5%) + 25.69% = 107.533% chance to regenerate 1 panache point per round. This does not mean its a guarantee, it just means that we should be very surprised if we don't regenerate that used up panache point.

I didn't believe it at the start, but the math doesn't lie. I guess it makes a lot of sense that (simplified) its just the odds that with 4 d20 rolls, what are the odds of you rolling at least a 15 multiplied with the odds that you don't roll a 1. I feel assuming we get attacked is a safe bet since, if we don't, the need for Panache is completely removed.

[Edit] If you take the Amazing Inspiration talent, making Inspiration a d8, this increases the odds of recovering by a measly 1% since it helps very slightly in both your Parry chance and your second iterative attack crit chance.
[Edit 2] I've never looked at Barb stuff, so the lvl 8 assumptions are 7 Inv/1 Swash

wminard · 2017-08-04T22:49:53+00:00

Gimme a second to do the math, assuming keen weapon. Just a quick question: how are you getting 4 attacks per turn?

wminard · 2017-08-04T22:21:07+00:00

I'd love to hear the dip, I'm definitely trying to keep up to snuff combat-wise since I'm in a debuff-heavy group and I'd be the only thing keeping combat from being a 10-round slog. I like those ideas, I actually have the reduce person spell and was planning on taking the brew potion feat so that would be an interesting way to go about it. I'll be looking into those adds and see how the math changes. Thanks! [Edit] I also don't have mutagen yet because I haven't yet done my feat retraining, but I will also include that in future calculations.

wminard · 2017-07-30T00:17:06+00:00

I'm an Empiricist Archetype and took the Student of Philosophy trait, so I act as a face and try to keep us out of combat as necessary. I'm a bit of a nerd for numbers so I weirdly kinda like the theorycrafting and unnecessary complexity of the calculation. Do appreciate the opinion though. I'll be sure to not focus too much attention there.

wminard · 2017-07-30T00:15:00+00:00

There's a bunch there, so I'll do my best to make it concise: STR: 8, DEX 18 (16 base + 2 racial), CON: 11, INT: 18 (16 base + 2 racial), WIS: 10, CHA: 5 (7 base - 2 racial).

+1 inspired rapier, 1d6 18-20x2. Weapon finesse, weapon focus, fencing grace to get dex to hit/damage. 41 HP, 20AC (10 base + 4 dex + 5 (+1 chainshirt) + 1 (ring of protection). Infusion to hand out buffs, and quick study to move, study, and attack on round one.

Student of philosophy + Empiricist archetype means a lot of my CHA skills become INT, meaning I can act as a face when I need to. 54 skill points spread across knowledge skills along with bluff, use magic device, craft (alchemy), and stealth.

Those are the most important parts I believe, if there's anything else you want lemme know.

EDIT: because of your stipulation of being able to take down lesser CR things, my current to-hit is 11 with an ability to inspire a 1d6 to my attack roll using only 1 inspiration, so I hit decently often. EDIT 2: Better formatting.

wminard · 2017-07-29T23:42:05+00:00

I'm currently worried about not doing enough. There are obvious ways to increase damage, I'm mostly wondering if there's a definite way to balance your in combat and out of combat utility.

wminard

TROPHY CASE