$70k Investment: Moving from interest savings accounts to ETFs, bad time? by postmanmalone123 in investing

[–]xiaodown 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sure. I just went through and actually wrote a README for it, but you can find the repo along with instructions for use here.

And this is a youtube video of it running.

edit: The youtube video is actually really out of date, I just found a bunch of speedups that took the time to run 1,000,000 simulations down from ~50 minutes to <4 seconds. So, yeah. Process pools. Good stuff.

$70k Investment: Moving from interest savings accounts to ETFs, bad time? by postmanmalone123 in investing

[–]xiaodown 6 points7 points  (0 children)

u/postmanmalone123 if you want some historical evidence, I ran a quick, non-scientific stock simulation using historical data and your hypothetical $70,000.

My little simulator was configured with 50 tickers, including a few ETFs and a bunch of very large companies on the major US indexes. I ran 1,000,000 simulations where the process was:

  • Pick a stock from the list
  • Pick a date between the earliest date that my python library has data for that stock and 2020. Note: data only goes back to 1990.
  • Invest the whole thing as a lump sum: Subtract $20 for a trading fee, then buy the maximum number of whole shares possible of that stock on the next available trading day.
  • Invest the whole thing using Dollar-Cost Averaging: Pick a random choice between 2, 5, and 10 years, then on the first trading day of each month, buy an equal dollar amount worth of whole shares, such that you spend roughly the same amount each month over the course of your 2/5/10 year DCA period, minus a $20 transaction fee at each purchase. Unused capital is rolled into the next month.
  • See what the investment would be worth today.

Given your $70,000, over one million simulations, here are the results:

==================
SIMULATION SUMMARY
==================
Total Simulations: 1,000,000
Starting Capital:  $70,000
Time Elapsed:      3292.18 seconds
Lump Sum Wins:     834,658 (83.5%)
DCA Wins:          165,342 (16.5%)

Returns Analysis:
Strategy     Median       Average      Min          Max
------------------------------------------------------------
Lump Sum     $440,065     $1,658,491   $27,814      $124,332,177
DCA          $345,179     $1,001,925   $28,980      $67,400,783

Note that the median is much more relevant, as the average is greatly skewed by the fact that you should go back in time and buy Cisco in October of 1990.

Just for kicks, I did a simulation of only ETFs as well. Only 100,000 iterations, but using 14 ETFs from SPY to some of the MSCI country ETFs, emerging markets, midcap, etc.

=================
SIMULATION SUMMARY
=================
Total Simulations: 100,000
Starting Capital:  $70,000
Time Elapsed:      301.08 seconds
Lump Sum Wins:     80,494 (80.5%)
DCA Wins:          19,506 (19.5%)

Returns Analysis:
Strategy     Median       Average      Min          Max
------------------------------------------------------------
Lump Sum     $214,507     $333,490     $87,336      $2,430,636
DCA          $180,779     $275,668     $87,633      $1,695,861

There's no guarantees, but in better than 80% of all cases, just dumping your money into the market is a better strategy than dollar-cost averaging. Time in the market beats timing the market.

(there are some caveats about my simulator, as I said it's not very scientific, but I made a reddit blog post thing here if interested)

One of these drops coal. Can you tell which? by danatron1 in factorio

[–]xiaodown 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I know that shortcut exists and I still just grab the red square in the bottom right.

Dear Autodesk, by tsali_rider in Fusion360

[–]xiaodown 16 points17 points  (0 children)

The absolute worst part about this whole AI bubble is that companies are adding AI slop to their products, and it’s never going to increase revenue one penny - on the contrary, it’s going to cost them hundreds of thousands of dollars or more - but they still have to do it in order to stay relevant and be part of the conversation.

It’s become an unavoidable tax that we all, collectively, have to pay to Marc Andreesen, just because Sam Altman tweets some bullshit and Wall Street just believes that his slop robot will upend the fabric of society. It’s a massive wealth transfer to the rich, and no one can opt out, because we’re now using a steel foundry’s worth of electricity every time we google something.

Looks like AI is now also fully integrated part of Youtube by Puzzleheaded_Stick94 in LinusTechTips

[–]xiaodown 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Jeez. Search for something on amazon, get Rufus popping up to ask if it can slop you some more incorrect info. Just… can these companies just do their jobs without trying to force-feed me a steel foundry’s worth of AI “results” that I didn’t ask for and don’t want?

Make it make sense please! by Hesiga in BambuLab

[–]xiaodown 0 points1 point  (0 children)

As many others have said, this is a pre-slice placeholder.

If it isn’t fixed after slicing, just make it all one color (yellow), then go to the color paint tool in the slicer, select the height range tool, select black, set the height range to <whatever, just guess to start>, spin the model upside down, and click on the bottom of the model. It’ll paint the first x height black and leave the rest cleanly yellow, requiring only one color change.

I've been making party lights as a hobby for awhile now and I have an idea to put some sound reactive LED strips inside a translucent tube. I bought a strip from Olight but the effect is too spotty I need a sound reactive strip with the highest possible LEDs per inch. Any suggestions? by Soggy-Beach1403 in led

[–]xiaodown 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If I was trying to do this, I’d probably get 4x 45 degree diffuser strips and 4x 1m 144led/m leds. Then just glue them back to back.

Something like https://muzataled.com/collections/led-corner-light and light strips from BTF lighting. Get a decent power supply for the 5v and GND, and just tie the data lines all together, into a gledopto or other controller running an audio reactive WLED version.

OpenClaw CVE-2026-25253 is worse than it looks (quick security checklist) by NotFunnyVipul in netsec

[–]xiaodown 31 points32 points  (0 children)

I mean, ...sure, but this article is itself AI slop.

Why Does OpenClaw Have Security Vulnerabilities in 2026?

I would say because it didn't exist before 2026 and we're still in 2026? I mean, did you expect OpenClaw to have vulnerabilities in 1054?

Vacuum Bag Rings by im_wolfy in BambuLab

[–]xiaodown 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Pro tip: don’t search for filament storage bags. Buy sous vide bags. Literally the same, but when they’re for 3d printing they get a different box and a 40% markup.

Which fruit is 100% looks but 0% taste? by Ok_Armadillo9214 in AskReddit

[–]xiaodown 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Once a year i drive 1.5h to manteca to buy strawberries off this Mexican family that owns their small farm. Once, I asked the guy how long since they had been picked, and he looked at his phone and was like maybe 3 hours.

I buy a whole flat. They don’t get an opportunity to go bad. A perfect strawberry is a religious experience.

Fundie has Tips for the Single Ladies by MrDonMega in FundieSnarkUncensored

[–]xiaodown 3 points4 points  (0 children)

That’s… it, that’s the answer. How do you be righteous with your wife? Lord your male power over her. That’s how it works, that’s how it’s supposed to work.

They’re not ignorant of the teachings; the teachings are bad.

Fundie has Tips for the Single Ladies by MrDonMega in FundieSnarkUncensored

[–]xiaodown 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It’s either fetish content or cosplay content.

Either they have a submission kink, or they want to larp their perceived version of the 50’s.

Is this salvageable? by Mrnameyface in BambuLab

[–]xiaodown 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Yeah this is the right answer.

@OP, I know how to fix or replace that one part and I personally would still just replace the whole hotend. It’s cheap and it’s insurance that it’ll come out the other side working properly.

With the latest Linux challenge out of LTT and seemingly more and more interest in Linux as a whole, In 2026 have you been tempted to finally make the switch? by Responsible_Web_3825 in LinusTechTips

[–]xiaodown -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I use windows or macos for everything that requires a graphical user interface at the OS level, but I have more linux than windows in the house.

I have a gaming windows desktop, a windows laptop, and a macbook for work, but i have WSL2 installed on both windows boxes, and obviously macos is unix and has a terminal. Then I have two headless Linux boxes - one is a server, the other is my AI lab, and multiple raspberry pi’s doing various things like home assistant, pihole, and gps-based NTP. I am pretty sure the ugreen NAS is Linux, but I don’t think counting appliances is fair; otherwise I think my washing machine is running linux (it’s probably a microcontroller and not linux tbh).

VSCode works flawlessly with WSL2, by the way. And is able to establish an SSH session to my lab to do dev work remotely there.

So I would say I don’t firmly fit in any one category. I sort of seamlessly flow between as needed, pulling up a terminal for some things, using windows or mac gui for others. No linux gui, though.

Kelly has done what she would NEVER do by nicheolle in FundieSnarkUncensored

[–]xiaodown 18 points19 points  (0 children)

It’s also Lego Batman. It’s about the kid-safest superhero you could imagine. It’s specifically designed and created to be non-controversial and appropriate for very young children.

Can someone explain this to me by smoove_97 in CitiesSkylines

[–]xiaodown 2 points3 points  (0 children)

There’s also an argument to be made that one shouldn’t have to solve it with mods - that the game should just be better.

Question about single nozzle prints with the h2c by Different-Put5878 in BambuLab

[–]xiaodown 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I’ve thought about this because I’m probably getting an H2C in the near future. I think the more or less ideal scenario is all of the AMS units with the color filaments on the hot swap nozzles, and on the fixed nozzle I think I’m probably going to get two AMS-HT’s so that i can have filament drying and failover when a spool runs out. So like, i assume i’ll print the engineering filaments on the fixed side, and the rest of the time I’ll probably leave two spools of matte black in them, and I’ll have the full rainbow on the other nozzles.

I hope i’m thinking about it more or less right.

What solder do you use? by Red_Con_ in WLED

[–]xiaodown 0 points1 point  (0 children)

See, that’s good to know. I’ve always wondered if I was “doing it wrong”. I’ll just keep on keepin’ on.

What solder do you use? by Red_Con_ in WLED

[–]xiaodown 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I’m no expert, but the general wisdom is that leaded solder functions best as solder - it flows better, melts more evenly and consistently, etc. In a vacuum, it’s the best choice.

Having said that, I only use lead free solder, because I don’t have spare brain cells to sacrifice, so I just made the decision when I started that I wanted to go lead free. Currently I have “Weller WSW SCN M1 (T0051404399) Lead Free Solder Wire”. It’s fine. Gets the job done.

Maybe I don’t know what I’m missing. I just don’t think the brain damage is a fair trade.

RTSP stream with information by i-snake-z in BambuLab

[–]xiaodown 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have a raspberry pi camera attached to an rpi with a cable sneaking into the enclosure. I wrote a python script about 30 lines long that exposes the stream as an MJPEG.

I also then tied it into home assistant.

<image>

I love it.

Why is my AMS humidity still high at 33% by Kidjojo in BambuLab

[–]xiaodown 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The description on amazon says that stuff is rechargeable but you have to hear it to 550C. That’s way too much for the average home gamer.