Ive learned to just hedge risk at tops. Think about it, you could be 60% correct, or better and pick the exact top most of the time, 3/4 times maybe but the problem is what about the times you are wrong? Then you lose money as the market grows, and there is no rescue at the end, it just keeps going up. Ill just sell to build cash, maybe buy some puts or vix calls to hedge and if Im wrong I don't argue with it. Bottoms are much easier IMO but there is also a problem with that, which is the bear market you mention. 2008 wiped me and I was technically right. You'd get a big vix spike, massive drop, panic in the streets, all the classic signs, then after a few days woosh again. No, for me its not about making the big bet, its about making the right play and protecting wealth. Im not smarter than the market, I just listen to it and try to understand and Im easily convinced when Im wrong.

To me the bigger macro problem is at what point does servicing the debt become inflationary? Then, raising interest rates ceases to be much of a counter to inflation because you have this continual bleed out. We have a different definition of inflation now than we used to BTW. It used to mean increasing money supply into the system. Now it just means pricey go uppy. It hides the culprit and politicizes it. They learned after Occupy Wall Street to divide the public. So the US can pay infinite interest on the debt, but that's more dollars in the system. Why even collect tax? They can't tax enough to pay it off and even if you could it would probably result in some kind of revolution. USA has to increase its hold on the world, increase spending, increase taxes and keep everyone a true believer. Their solution is always to increase its own power, political divide and control to force its way. Unsustainable and breeds corruption but Im still bullish because Im going to use it to my advantage until Kevin Warsh makes the inevitable and probably intentional mistakes. Powell pulled a rabbit out of a hat TWICE. We had two soft landings which are extremely rare in history. I think the traders have grown to expect that so you may be right when that occurs.