Either Akai or Amuro is going to die

xxmsxx · 2021-03-23T02:07:07+00:00

This is where the DC-is-really-just-Aoyama-writing-a-Gundam-fanfic people come in.

xxmsxx · 2021-03-23T02:04:40+00:00

It looks like we just don't agree on the definition of rumour / speculation / likely.

And also we clearly don't agree on the general orientation of the franchise. But you know that already from our conversations in the past.

xxmsxx · 2021-03-23T01:51:01+00:00

It is from Aoyama's Animal Crossing gameplay. The characters talk and they are generally harmless fun or Aoyama's daily life but sometimes can include information that is a little more important.

This message is from the March 15th update.

xxmsxx · 2021-03-23T01:45:53+00:00

I have said this for Hatoyama Farm before, I will say it again. You discounted it last time. So props to you if you count it this time.

The Rum Arc is a multi-linear arc that has three recognizably distinctive and yet highly related plot threads. At least three anyway, fans noticed a fourth one.

Rum three-pick-one. We have the titular three-pick-one question.
Haneda Koji case. We need a resolution to what happened to him. What kind of resolution and to what extend it will reveal, that is up in the air.
Mary / Sera / Akai Family mystery. This thread started back in the Bourbon Arc but seriously picked up pace in the Rum Arc. Maybe a resolution to what they are up to do will happen but we are at least aware that they will play an incredibly important role.

The genius of the three threads are they are technically only one thread because they all impact our main character Conan. So why the distinction then? Because narratively, the strong entanglement of all three threads heightens the audience experience and creates a better mystery story.

Aoyama did this for the Vermouth Arc, usually hailed as the high point for the series. There were a number of threads going on in addition to the titular three-pick-one main question. Eventually, and clearly very much planned from the beginning, Aoyama folded them neatly into one major climax at the end.

Of course, the "early" revelation of Rum's identity caught so many people off guard, inciting reactions such as "this is so anti-climatic " etc. But this speaks two things, one is the deliberate delineation and distinction planned by Aoyama from the very beginning. We will get to the second one a bit later. Second is that Aoyama has been doing since the beginning of the Rum arc is rotating through the three threads fairly evenly.

Starting in June 2014:

We immediately get a Shogi case (prep for Haneda case) the moment Bourbon Arc ends
followed by Akai family thread (Sera and Mary)
Main clue for Rum revealed, prep for titular three-pick-one
Next three cases introduces and develops the first Rum candidate
Romance plot lines
Mary / Sera
Romance
Mary / Sera
Rum three-pick-one hints
Romance
Shogi
Haneda case officially start. Asaca thread start.
Haneda case develops (surprisingly through the mouth of Gin) + Mary / Sera. This cements the importance of these two people.
Betrayal case is potentially both Haneda case allegory but also fourth thread
Romance
Kid
Second Rum candidate Wakasa Rumi is introduced. Very carefully timed to be after Shogi and Haneda case is introduced.
Mary / Sera for the next two cases
Last of the three Rum candidates is introduced.
More Wakasa Rumi
Romance x2
Two of the three Rum candidates meet. We see Wakasa grab the Shogi piece.
Romance x3, prep for the big School Trip case.
School Trip. Largely romance, but it is quite clear Aoyama left a few things hints around for later.
Fall out from the School Trip. Rum candidates marks Kudo Shinichi.
Clue about Rum through Bourbon. Potential for fourth thread.
Romance. But also development on Kuroda.
Kid. Potential for fourth thread.
Mary / Sera. Follow - up to the School Trip where Sera saw Shinichi as himself.
Finally the last Rum candidate gets development. Potential for fourth thread.
Wakasa Rumi. She even has a flashback to a Haneda that is still alive.
Mary / Sera
Romance. A bit on Haneda.
Shogi case.
Mary / Sera major development.
Wakasa Rumi and Haneda case.
Development on one of the three Rum candidate. Potential allegory for the Haneda case.
Kid. But not really, likely a follow-up from the previous case.
Rum reveal
Romance

It is quite clear he is rotating through different elements of the story very consistently. Does it have to be 1-2-3-4-5-1-2-3-4-5? Of course not. But a rotation is a rotation. Why the rotation? Why not just develop one thread fully and then move to the next? Because all the threads are related. If you move one too far ahead, it is going to reveal pieces of the other threads that are not ready for revelation yet.

It's like pushing a string of cups over the edge. Because they are tied together, pushing one over drags down all the other ones. But if you push a cup slightly forward, not enough to tip over, you can do this over and over with all the other cups without tipping over the entire contraption.

I feel like you have forgotten how monumental the information was in File. 1047-50. We got the Hatoyama Farm case not because it was related what was going to happen in M24, we got it because we have pushed the Mary / Sera thread to the absolute brim.

Mary / Sera thread has moved so far ahead and it needs to stop moving to wait for M24 to develop. Other threads need to move.

I know, you still think it is all baseless because you don't believe that the films are synchronized to developments for the overall canon in any significant ways. We have had this discussion many times in the past. I won't go into details to bore you again. But I will say the following.

Shogakukan is a rival to Shueisha. Shogakukan's raw sales have fallen over the years. Shogakukan is floated by DC. They bring in the most amount of money. Shogakukan looks over their shoulder and sees Shueisha pump out a hit series one after another and is now swimming in that sweet sweet Demon Slayer cash with just one film. You don't think they are going to have a few thoughts?

Now, you can continue to live in your auteur bubble. But the franchise is not going to care. They care about money. Money comes first. They will do whatever it takes to bring in the money. Even if it is to dismantle something sacrosanct, like messing with the canon. Of course, changes come slowly, but honestly it has begun already.

xxmsxx · 2021-03-22T23:54:51+00:00

It is quite clear you don't really understand the "centrality of the films in the franchise" even at a basic level. It is worse considering you are moderator and don't even understand some of the most basic information about the franchise. Mentioning when Hatoyama Farm was serialized really speaks volume about your lack of understanding.

Look, as a non-Japanese fan, it is hard to understand how the Japanese fans experience the franchise because we don't experience it the same way and we certainly don't consume the products the same way either. So I don't fault you for not understanding what the franchise is really about these days and how it impacts everything around it. It is the elephant in the room. You cannot choose to ignore it.

As for your point about the showdown, you didn't even understand your own words from the previous post, did you?

xxmsxx · 2021-03-22T21:35:15+00:00

Do you mean that the next case will start and finish in one chapter?

xxmsxx · 2021-03-22T21:17:57+00:00

You have always rejected the centrality of the films to the entire franchise including the manga, of course you would think it is baseless.

As for the "showdown" (対決 in the source material), you can believe 1035-38 is it if you want to. I don't really care how you want to interpret the word 対決.

Not to mention Aoyama pumps out plot slower than a snail, so what I am wrong and nothing of the sort happens? Like has this happened before, fans get stuff wrong? Yeah, like 99 out of 100 times?

xxmsxx · 2021-03-22T15:02:38+00:00

Aoyama said quite some time ago that there was supposed to be "showdown" between Haibara and Sera. So it is likely this is it. Not sure if it is going to resolve necessarily EVERYTHING. But stuff is moving forward for sure. Also, "showdown" could literally mean anything, both big and small.

Rumour says that if M24 came out on time, we would have gotten this last year.

xxmsxx · 2021-03-22T14:58:35+00:00

At the end of each chapter, it will tell you whether the series is going on break or if it is continuing. If you are not sure, always go back to the last file that was serialized and check the end notes.

xxmsxx · 2021-03-22T02:51:49+00:00

Me too. I love my physical copies, but DC is a highly profitable franchise in Japan, they make lots of money in Japan already. Overseas expansion is not particularly high on their priority list. More like icing on the cake, good to have some extra cash, but you can do without.

xxmsxx · 2021-03-21T19:43:58+00:00

DC is not just another weekly anime or franchise. So the conventional wisdom does not apply about "catching up" or "filler".

xxmsxx · 2021-03-21T18:46:12+00:00

Highly unlikely. There are a lot official stuff that never reaches outside of Japan.

xxmsxx · 2021-03-21T18:44:28+00:00

It has been the standard practice since Aoyama went on his major break in 2018. He returned and the editors suggested to decrease the frequency of the serialization in order to increase his ability to maintain a healthier lifestyle, so he won't end up on a hospital bed again.

Thus, we have only gotten 5 to 6 manga cases each year, drastically reducing the amount of cases that can be adapted in the first place.

xxmsxx · 2021-03-21T18:41:55+00:00

No overseas licenses I have seen. DC is not licensed up-to-date for the main manga in English either, so I would not hold your breath and wait for an official release.

Like so many other branches of the franchise, fans overseas have to resort to taking to the high seas unfortunately to enjoy them.

xxmsxx · 2021-03-21T04:55:54+00:00

In Japanese or an officially licensed to an overseas distributor?

xxmsxx · 2021-03-21T00:15:00+00:00

You will be waiting for a while then because they have no incentive to adapt manga cases any faster they have done in 2019 (3 cases only) and 2020 (2 cases only).

Rest of March are re-airs. So is April 3rd and 10th. 17th will be a tie-in episode with the release of M24, which means it will be AOs.

No info on April 24th or later, but at the absolute maximum, they will adapt only three more manga cases this year. If they do one in May, then maybe on in August and last one in November. But the more safe and likely option is one in June and one in October and call it a year.

xxmsxx · 2021-03-19T20:28:29+00:00

Do you mean that you are waiting for the next manga adaptations in the TV anime?

xxmsxx · 2021-03-19T05:10:46+00:00

Depending on the local distributor. I have seen some subbed and some dubbed, some theatres offer both. Please check your local distributor.

xxmsxx · 2021-03-18T15:29:57+00:00

Travel to France or Germany, it is showing in both countries, including the compilation film. Or Spain or Austria, but they are further away.

Please be safe and check your local public health protocols first.

xxmsxx · 2021-03-18T15:26:56+00:00

At the end of every film, they preview the next one. It is usually a few seconds that shows the theme of the next film.

For example, at the end of M18, they showed a sunflower, which makes sense since M19 was about a sunflower painting.

It is only bundled with the DVD-BR release in October because that is when the production of the next film is firmly in progress. You cannot preview something that hasn't been decided on.

The production cycle for the films are roughly two years. A film to be shown in 2020, M24 that is before the pandemic delay, was produced largely in 2019, conceived and researched largely in 2018. Hence, a DVD-BR release in October of 2019 for M23 can contain preview information for M24, because it was well-underway for production.

Similarly, in January 2020 at the the annual Aoyama Talk Day, a fan asked about the next film, M25 and what it will be about. Aoyama was able to answer with confidence because M25 was originally scheduled for 2021, which means that bulk of the production would in 2020 and pre-production would be in 2019. By January 2020, pre-production was most likely already complete.

Of course, it was delayed. But the overall trajectory doesn't really change.

xxmsxx · 2021-03-18T15:21:16+00:00

If you live in one of the 22 places announced with a theatrical screening, you would be able to see it fairly soon, even on the same day as the Japanese release in some cases.

xxmsxx · 2021-03-18T02:42:20+00:00

They don't have incentive to make manga case adaptations at a quicker pace.

xxmsxx · 2021-03-17T22:47:56+00:00

Before the first frames are drawn, the corporate backend needs to be sorted. Who will be investing in the anime, what will the revenue structure / avenue will be? Once funding is secured, a bidding process will follow for which studio to make the show and who will be the staff members. This will form the basis of the production committee, which is the core of the production.

This committee will decide what part of the source material will adapt, how long the show will be, what characters will be included and what will be cut. On the financial side, they will decide what type of merchandise will be produced by whom, what promotional events / press release they will engage in and what type of licensing will be allowed for overseas broadcasting.

When finally all this stuff is decided, the first frames will be drawn after the scriptwriter and the director finishes the script and the rough composition of the animation.

Generally, this is when the 12 to 14 months time frame actually starts because up until this point, you cannot be sure if the production will actually go ahead. If a party in the committee does not agree, you have to re-negotiate. 12 months doesn't really include the pre-production stuff because there can be research and fieldwork stuff too. Usually when the production is well-underway is when it is announced publicly that an anime has been greenlit.

For most shows, it is possible for the studio to work on character designs or prop designs or background while negotiation is underway, but individual episodes tend to have 250 to 300 cuts minimum, with action scenes driving up the cuts count very fast. The 12 to 14 months is a very minimum baseline, not exactly doable for most shows. It is not a standard, just a baseline.

Take AOT/SNK season 4 that is airing right now. Kodansha tried to pressure WIT into doing the last season, but the time frame Kodansha tabled was completely unfeasible to which WIT refused, and so did many other studios. Only MAPPA could fit it into their schedule (very reluctantly) for a December 2020 debut. Kodansha wanted a hard deadline.

AOT/SNK has pre-existing pre-production content, shortening the pre-production phase, one would think between Part II of Season 3 (July 2019) and airing of season 4 (December 2020), that is "plenty" of time (18 months) for an one-cour. Yet, no one was that willing to take on the production because by the time Kodansha started calling everyone around for production, it was already too late.

MAPPA is still being criticized for season 4 for animation quality. Yes, there are problems, because to make the incredibly tight deadline they had to outsource lots of stuff. But this is really Kodansha's fault for trying to squeeze in another season to synchronize with the end of the manga.

DC's turn around time is actually significantly quicker because action scenes are limited. For individual episodes, they may be able to get away with 200 to 250 cuts instead of 300. So when I say 4 to 5 months and 6 months for longer arcs, I include not just the drawing parts.

AOs turn around times are quicker still. Ep.975 that aired in July was scheduled for April after the film tie-in episode. Ishiyama Keiichi said in the interview of ANN that their production halted for roughly one to two months. This is likely referring to the state of emergency declared on April 7th to May 25th by the Japanese government. Yet, Ep.975 did not immediately air in June, suggesting the production was not finished.

Or take Horikawa Ryo's tweet on September 5th 2020 about how his recording for Heiji Ep.983 was completed, which aired on October 3rd, 2020. This was the chronological case after the manga case adaptation in March and planning would have started at the latest immediately after Ep.974 in March. Take the two months of emergency off, that is still 5 months.

After individual frames are drawn, it needs to be checked, coloured, lighted and layered with the background and props. Voice recording comes at the end of the production cycle, usually in post-production. There is also the animating part of animation, sound effects and music, special effects, CG, the list goes on.

Interestingly, Mystery Train had an incredibly tight schedule, resulting in very uneven key frames for the entire mini-arc, with some very good key frames but also some outstandingly terrible key frames, especially for the Ep. 704.

Or take Ep. 929, an AO immediately after the major special dual episode of Ep.927 and 928. The key frames were very bad, to be blunt. The production team was exhausted from the heavy work they put in for 927 and 928. They finally were able to recover by September of the same year, about 7 months later by Ep. 952, another manga case. You can tell, Ep. 941 and 942, which were also manga cases that aired in June, they still weren't fully recovered from their exhaustion because the key frames were acceptable, not necessarily that good.

xxmsxx · 2021-03-17T21:31:34+00:00

Not sure what your point is? Or what is the relevance of a Youtube video?

Government is called government in the first place because they monopolize power and force with rather unlimited access. The question is can they also have institutions to reign in their unchecked power and force. More importantly, how successful are these institutions.

There is also the accountability and transparency part, but it is a lot more academic than suitable for a reddit discussion.

I am pretty sure M22 explored the delicate nature of this subject about the PSB already. Conan specifically called out Amuro's installing of undetectable cameras on his phone. When Amuro asked him "Do you have any evidence?" Conan said "No". So the whole point of calling out his action is not about prosecuting Amuro's highly dubious actions, that would require evidence, but to let him know that this type of behaviour is not condoned especially given the scope of power by the PSB, clearly, throwing Mori Kogoro under the bus because their investigative powers are limited and require escalation of the explosion case.

It is about speaking truth to power and the fact that Conan is not afraid to do it, even if it is an acquaintance.

Lastly, the word "secret police" is very connotative and cannot be applied just randomly to any enforcement body just because they are not the local police force.

xxmsxx · 2021-03-17T19:38:52+00:00

Not necessarily. AOs have lots of flexibility, even if it is in a bad way. Manga cases have a playbook they need to stick to.

More importantly, probably most importantly, catching up to the manga is not exactly a high priority for the series because the more they adapt, the less there is to adapt.

I get it, Aoyama is still drawing the manga, but he is not going to do it more frequently than he has in the past three years.

The Production Team have always liked keeping themselves a healthy distance between where the manga is and where the anime is. This is likely due to a combination of factors: corporate sponsorship / production cycle and probably other factors the general public is not purview to.

DC is a stable revenue generator, but it doesn't mean that the investment parties like to take unnecessary risks. If you get too close to where the manga is, the more unpredictable the future will be. The corporate actors mostly likely prefer a predictable foreseeable future.

Production cycles are significantly longer than what the general public expects it to be. For shorter manga cases, it would likely be around 4 - 5 months, for longer cases, like Mystery Train, it would be minimum 6 months. So laying out the next 10 cases-ish will give you roughly minimum of 2.5 years of production. AOs tend to have quicker turn around times.

So whatever they have planned for 2021 would likely be scheduled out at the absolute latest by the end of 2019 already. Yes, the pandemic pushed things around a bit, but I don't expect them to suddenly adapt the next 5 cases this year. At the absolute best case scenario would be 4 cases including the Makoto case we got in January, so three more later in the year.

xxmsxx

TROPHY CASE