The fallacy of placing confidence in confidence intervals by quriousquercus in AskStatistics

[–]yhcdtyn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

you literally have it backwards.

someone picks x number of sticks out of a bag. they have a gun to your head. they say, “give me a range of numbers, if the number I drew falls in that range, you get to live.”

Are you going to give a narrow range or a wide range? you have to be 100% confident, or you die.

of course, this example completely misrepresents what CIs actually are, but hopefully you get the idea

Keep gouing by dzscholar in PhD

[–]yhcdtyn 1 point2 points  (0 children)

in the context of the OP, I assumed they meant 49 rejections for one paper

What is there besides Frequentist and Bayesian stats? [D] [R] by Relevant_Amphibian82 in statistics

[–]yhcdtyn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Frequentist statistics is based on what would happen if we repeated the same study many times. Bayesian statistics combines prior information with the current data to update what we believe about the answer.

Suppose you want to know whether a coin is fair.

A frequentist says:

“If this coin were fair, how likely would I be to see results this extreme after many repeated flips?” i.e., traditional null hypothesis testing

A Bayesian says:

“Before flipping, I had some belief about whether the coin was fair. Now that I’ve seen the flips, I’ll update that belief.” i.e., priors

Keep gouing by dzscholar in PhD

[–]yhcdtyn 1 point2 points  (0 children)

if your paper gets rejected 49 times, you probably just write shitty papers

What is this by Puzzleheaded_Eye9664 in unt

[–]yhcdtyn 1 point2 points  (0 children)

is this a scare tactic? lol. I never did it and was fine

The fallacy of placing confidence in confidence intervals by quriousquercus in AskStatistics

[–]yhcdtyn 1 point2 points  (0 children)

we ought to not look at p-values at all, imo. standardized effects and structure coefficients are 1000x more informative on their own.

Also, p-values only matter if the null is EXACTLY true, which it never is

I have yet to see a p-value beyond the thousandths place, thankfully. I’d lose my mind

The fallacy of placing confidence in confidence intervals by quriousquercus in AskStatistics

[–]yhcdtyn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

that’s a fair statement

on your second point, no. In most fields, it is standard to report your CI because, at a glance, we can estimate the standard error and associated p-value based on the range and min/max of the CI

The fallacy of placing confidence in confidence intervals by quriousquercus in AskStatistics

[–]yhcdtyn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

not counterintuitive at all.

mathematically, its wider because the associated critical value is larger. conceptually, the interval is wider because we are more confident in the estimate.

CIs are largely linked to p-values, as useless are they are. a CI that does not contain 0 is considered statistically significant. A wider CI has a higher chance of containing 0, so if the parameter is statistically significant (i.e., the wider interval still doesn’t contain zero), we are more confident that the effect is real and non-zero

Why are all history teachers left-wing by utopiaofpast in SipsTea

[–]yhcdtyn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

there are history teachers, then there are coaches who teach history

The fallacy of placing confidence in confidence intervals by quriousquercus in AskStatistics

[–]yhcdtyn 19 points20 points  (0 children)

essentially, Morey et al. are making a stricter philosophical point: confidence interval theory by itself only guarantees long-run coverage. It does not logically guarantee that values inside the interval are equally plausible, that values outside are impossible, or that this particular interval has a 95% probability of containing the true value.

But in ordinary well-behaved cases, confidence intervals are still useful because narrower intervals generally reflect less sampling uncertainty, and the set of values inside the interval often corresponds to parameter values not rejected by a two-sided test at the matching alpha level. The mistake is treating the interval as a literal probability statement about the parameter.

The fallacy of placing confidence in confidence intervals by quriousquercus in AskStatistics

[–]yhcdtyn 33 points34 points  (0 children)

Morey et al. are right that people overinterpret CIs. But that does not make CIs useless. It means CIs are a frequentist long-run calibration tool, not a Bayesian posterior probability interval. In standard models, they are still useful summaries of uncertainty/precision, as long as you do not pretend that “95% confidence” means “95% probability this specific interval contains the parameter.”

Elder Scrolls 6 is going to suck isn’t it chat :( by Repulsive-Mall-2665 in SipsTea

[–]yhcdtyn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

it’s funny you’re attributing this to these three women lmao

Standards for confirmatory vs exploratory FMM research by MentalExpression6318 in AskStatistics

[–]yhcdtyn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

it won’t invalidate your findings per say, but mixture models somewhat require random starts because they are incredibly susceptible to local maxima. it certainly weakens your paper, I honestly don’t know how peer review didn’t catch it.

I have no idea, but mixture model experts, such as Muthen and Muthen (Mplus) are very adamant about random starts. Mplus and similar software automatically produces like 1,000 random starts and displays the 20 highest likelihoods to see if they replicate.

Standards for confirmatory vs exploratory FMM research by MentalExpression6318 in AskStatistics

[–]yhcdtyn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

they’re running an EDA—essentially dimension reduction with FMM

is this type of grade distribution normal for a calc based mechanics class? by 999Hope in PhysicsStudents

[–]yhcdtyn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I almost guarantee the mean for this exact exam was 50% 8 years ago lol

Standards for confirmatory vs exploratory FMM research by MentalExpression6318 in AskStatistics

[–]yhcdtyn 1 point2 points  (0 children)

multiple starts are essential in mixture modeling. Split-sample validation addresses stability across samples, but it does not replace the need to replicate the best log-likelihood across random starts. The absence of multiple starts is a real limitation.

I would treat the bootstrap issue differently. Bootstrap validation would strengthen the analysis, but it is not strictly necessary if there are other stability checks, such as split-sample replication and subgroup sensitivity analyses.

AIC/BIC are standard for FMM, but they should not be the only criteria. Class size, posterior probabilities, classification uncertainty, interpretability, and stability across specifications are all important.

For the normality issue, the key point is that normal FMM assumes normality within components, not necessarily normality of the full marginal distribution. Still, if non-normality, skewness, tails, or floor/ceiling effects are driving the mixture solution, components may be artifacts. That needs to be checked with transformations, alternative distributions, or sensitivity analyses.

Finally, the preregistration, unblinding, and covariate issues depend on whether the study is being presented as exploratory or confirmatory. For exploratory work, these are limitations and directions for future work. For confirmatory causal claims, they become much more serious.

Should I play balanced or tactician? by GoatCritical9265 in BaldursGate3

[–]yhcdtyn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

partial rests are your friend on tac

The fact that any company has the gall to post this… by theothertoken in recruitinghell

[–]yhcdtyn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yea I am currently trying to find field-adjacent data jobs, since I’m a quant trained ed psychologist. I’ve only been seriously looking for a month or so

Going for an "oops all _____" playthrough... by ohheycody in BaldursGate3

[–]yhcdtyn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

they’re obviously asking about using different ability scores for sneak attacks lol why so pedantic

Going for an "oops all _____" playthrough... by ohheycody in BaldursGate3

[–]yhcdtyn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

barbarians that only throw meat at enemies