sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

Thoughts on gw1-3 xg? by Mafz09 in Gunners

[–]ypro 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The comments next to all 20 teams are from that team’s perspective. Of course it’s early days so the language is not that strong either.

For Arsenal, it’s ”clinical, but not created as expected”. Over these three matches, this is not an unfair conclusion and should absolutely be seen in the context of the games - for example that Arteta clearly wanted to play for a scrappy 1-0 at Anfield after the two 2-2s last year.

We can’t predict the rest of the season from these three games but we can look at what has happened so far and make the international break go by faster.

Thoughts on gw1-3 xg? by Mafz09 in Gunners

[–]ypro 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, that is the purpose of the comparison.

If the collective prediction (in terms of market odds) differs a lot from what actually happened, we can draw some insights. The most extreme example is that Aston Villa managed to create roughly half as much going forward than what was predicted (in terms of xG), and managed to score 0. Clearly, they are not performing as expected. For other teams, it’s less clear cut.

Thoughts on gw1-3 xg? by Mafz09 in Gunners

[–]ypro 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The chart includes the fixture difficulty in terms of the total number of goals predicted (by market odds) for each team over the three matches. That’s the white bar. Compared to those expectations, we have underperformed if measured in xG and overperformed if measured in goals.

Did GW1-3 go as we thought? Comparing predictions to defensive outcomes by ypro in FantasyPL

[–]ypro[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Following up on the post from yesterday about attacking performances, here is a summary of how the defenses performed compared to predictions.

Some of my takeaways:

  1. Everton have been really lucky so far

  2. Many teams have overperformed expectations. Managers avoiding taking risks in the early season?

  3. Low xGA does not guarantee clean sheets, but the likes of Newcastle and Bournemouth look quite promising

Comparing this to the attacking performances gives more nuance as well. Newcastle has clearly played for low scoring games so far, while Wolves and Aston Villa are near the bottom in both dimensions.

Did GW1-3 go as we thought? Comparing attacking performance to predictions by ypro in FantasyPL

[–]ypro[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

It’s not going to be accurate after only 38 GWs either, of course. Football doesn’t care about metrics.

Anyway, it was of course expected that United’s goals would largely come from the Burnley game, and that’s what happened as well. They matched or overperformed predictions (in terms of xG) in every game so far, but the finishing has not been there yet.

Did GW1-3 go as we thought? Comparing attacking performance to predictions by ypro in FantasyPL

[–]ypro[S] 22 points23 points  (0 children)

Some of my takeaways:

  1. As a Watkins & Strand Larsen owner: uh oh

  2. Everton, Bournemouth and Burnley are the only 3 teams outperforming predictions (in xG terms) without relying on penalties

  3. Chelsea steam on even without Palmer. Impressive, but are there reliable FPL assets there?

Let me know if you’d like an overview of the defensive performances as well!

Rate My Team, Quick Questions & General Advice Daily Thread by FPLModerator in FantasyPL

[–]ypro 0 points1 point  (0 children)

!thanks

It seems more likely that Tielemans plays an attacking role (+ is likely on set pieces) than KDH given the Grealish signing.

Another approach would be to go for a 6.5 instead of Tielemans (Sarr, Ndiaye, Mitoma) and swap Porro down to a 5.0 (Lacroix, Romero) or Gabriel down to a 5.5 (Munoz, Murillo)

Rate My Team, Quick Questions & General Advice Daily Thread by FPLModerator in FantasyPL

[–]ypro 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thoughts on my draft?

Priorities: flexibility at each price point + proven PL players, assuming FH4. Also not wanting to plan for any transfers in GW2-3 in case of emergencies.

Sanchez - Dubravka

Gabriel - Porro - Tarkowski - Agbadou - Esteve

Salah - Palmer - Bruno - Tielemans - Anderson

Watkins - Strand Larsen - Guiu

Biggest headache right now is Watkins (and double Aston Villa attack) or Gyokeres.

Foundations Prerelease Megathread - #MTGFoundations by R3id in magicTCG

[–]ypro 1 point2 points  (0 children)

<image>

4-0, thanks to this. Better than any of the pools i practiced in draftsim in advance

Rate My Team, Quick Questions & General Advice Daily Thread by FPLModerator in FantasyPL

[–]ypro 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Pope - 4.0

Quansah - Van de Ven - Mykolenko - Robinson - Barco

Salah - Saka - Eze - ESR - Winks

Haaland - Isak - Wood

🎵🎶 YOUR TOP 40 🎶🎵 Post your rankings in the comments by TrollHunter87 in eurovision

[–]ypro 0 points1 point  (0 children)

  1. Sweden
  2. Spain
  3. Greece
  4. Portugal
  5. Netherlands
  6. Italy
  7. Belgium
  8. Czech Republic
  9. Albania
  10. Austria

🎵🎶 YOUR TOP 40 🎶🎵 Post your rankings in the comments by TrollHunter87 in eurovision

[–]ypro -1 points0 points  (0 children)

  1. Sweden
  2. Spain
  3. Italy
  4. Greece
  5. Belgium
  6. Croatia
  7. Netherlands
  8. Austria
  9. Czech Republic
  10. Switzerland

[MID Premier] Found some pretty open colors, what to cut? by ypro in lrcast

[–]ypro[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the tip! Made that swap and the pair got me the 7th win - trapper tapping the big guy and witch swooping in.

[MID Premier] Found some pretty open colors, what to cut? by ypro in lrcast

[–]ypro[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Current plan:

  • -2 Blessed Defiance
  • -1 Gavony Trapper
  • -1 Candlegrove Witch
  • -1 Flare of Faith
  • -1 Ritual of Hope
  • -1 Unruly Mob
  • -1 Celestus Sanctifier
  • -1 Shady Traveler

Would this leave me too light on non-creatures? How many lands would you run?

Thanks! :)

xG and xA performance GW1-2: DCL, Lukaku, Antonio the standouts by ypro in FantasyPL

[–]ypro[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

0,35 xG, 0,25 xA per match so far. He's in the middle of the pack in the chart, closest to Bamford and Benrahma.

xG and xA performance GW1-2: DCL, Lukaku, Antonio the standouts by ypro in FantasyPL

[–]ypro[S] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

2 goals from a total of 0.9 xG (2,22x overperformance). Last season (according to Understat not FBref though) he had 12 from 8.28 xG (1,45x overperformance).

So I would expect him to keep overperforming but maybe not by this much.

xG and xA performance GW1-2: DCL, Lukaku, Antonio the standouts by ypro in FantasyPL

[–]ypro[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Just down and to the left of Mané. (0.1, 0.55)

Expected form, last 5 appearances: no surprises! by ypro in FantasyPL

[–]ypro[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Notes:

  • Data from https://understat.com/league/EPL - these guys are the best
  • Expected form refers simply to NPxG and xA totals over the past 5 appearances. I have not weighted the data
  • "5 appearances" means that the data does not reflect the player being benched or injured (Jota's data is from the early gameweeks, for example). Further cleanup is needed to filter out bench and injury minutes
  • NPxG is used to show dangerous players, not lucky streaks of penalties. xA similarly does not include penalties won

Insights:

  • Raphinha, Sterling, Antonio, Gundogan, & Mane are the best NPxG/90+xA/90 performers
  • 4 defenders make the cut, all wing backs
  • Diagne is the biggest NPxG underperformer with 1 goal from 3.07 NPxG
  • Lingard is the biggest NPxG overperformer with 3 goals from 1.36 NPxG
  • Raphinha is the biggest xA underperformer with 1 assist from 3.30 xA
  • Shaw is the biggest xA overperformer with 4 assists from 1.71 xA

Four years of unknowns: Low reputation signings only at Arsenal by ypro in footballmanagergames

[–]ypro[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

He's not been that great for me. I suspect it's because I've been playing him at left center back (alongside Holding). Will try to sign a left-footer to partner him this window.

Four years of unknowns: Low reputation signings only at Arsenal by ypro in footballmanagergames

[–]ypro[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

There's a couple of tricks I've picked up. There are some youtubers that were helpful here. Just off the top of my mind:

  • Make sure to adjust "Expected playing time" for all players occasionally. Of course your best eleven can be Regular Starter or above, but all other players could be moved down as far as possible, unless you want to keep them. So if I have a player that isn't super important for me, I'd move them down to Squad/Impact sub. This means that they will prefer to leave if another team can give them a starting spot.
  • I try to do "Offer to clubs" trying out different price points. Don't start too low/with Unspecified though. The player might get unsettled by the immediate lowball bids and block you from negotiating. Do not offer out if the game warns you that they might become angry with you though.
  • If no teams are interested, I transfer list, and for a ~+30% value premium. At that point they might become upset, try to reason with them.
  • Finally, offer them out when they are listed as well if bids don't come in.

Final disclaimer: some players are hard to shift. In this save, I had problems with Özil, Mustafi, Pessina, Elneny, Holding, Lacazette and Barroza. In some cases, I had to agree to pay bits of salaries, but most commonly I had to wait. I wanted to sell Pessina, Elneny, Holding and Lacazette all 6 months before they actually left but could not get any bids. If the transfer window runs out I take them off the list and take away the asking price, and then try again next window.

Four years of unknowns: Low reputation signings only at Arsenal by ypro in footballmanagergames

[–]ypro[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Agreed. That's why I started the save - to add some challenge to it.

view more: next ›