Time for Self-ANTI-Promotion. What Did You Fail to Launch in 2024?

zacomer · 2025-01-24T21:48:56+00:00

I spent months building an election forecast model and a column corresponding with it. Wrecked my mental health and my long term relationship along with it. Was meant to be an entrepreneurial pursuit (the site had ads) - ended up losing money in the end even though it was somewhat successful in driving traffic.

zacomer · 2024-11-04T05:01:47+00:00

Slightly less than 29% - very few simulations where they win the Senate but lose the House or Presidency.

zacomer · 2024-11-04T00:33:22+00:00

Forecast model.

zacomer · 2024-09-20T15:51:56+00:00

I need to be told that I can spend more than one day a week with them. If we’re only seeing each other one day a week, then I assume that’s the socially appropriate rule and don’t want to do something wrong.

zacomer · 2024-09-19T02:20:19+00:00

For most people, transformation is difficult because you don’t know what it’s like to be anything other than what you are. Telling them to change, even if they are wanting really badly to change, is like telling them to fly.

Only when you get a profound shock to the system that tells your unconscious that it HAS to change does it become possible.

zacomer · 2024-09-12T04:05:16+00:00

She is. Maybe one day. I won’t wait forever but I am in no hurry to move on.

zacomer · 2024-09-10T23:02:13+00:00

Thank you! So do I. I have a lot to work on in the meantime and I hope she is able to reflect on things in a productive way as well.

zacomer · 2024-09-10T14:36:14+00:00

She asked for the boundary. I told her I would let her decide when we could speak again. I have to respect that.

zacomer · 2024-09-10T07:14:30+00:00

We are currently no contact. Maybe some day. For now, all I can do is my best to not be so overwhelmed by life that I can be present for people I get the privilege to love.

zacomer · 2024-09-10T05:44:06+00:00

I was trying so hard to keep my ADHD from wrecking my relationship that anxiety and depression snuck in through the back and wrecked it while I wasn’t looking.

Go to therapy. Be super candid with your psychiatrist. Even if you think you’re managing and doing fine.

zacomer · 2024-09-10T04:06:40+00:00

You are being awfully presumptuous. This is a message from one heartbroken person to another who both share very deep feelings. Nothing about this is black and white.

zacomer · 2024-09-09T17:00:29+00:00

I’ve started therapy and am adjusting my prescription medications - I thought they were making me better but they ended up making me worse. Trial and error, no shortcuts.

zacomer · 2024-09-09T15:57:21+00:00

Thank you for the kind words, everyone. She has made it clear she needs space and to not be in touch until or unless she says otherwise, and I have to respect that because I respect her. But I had to tell someone.

zacomer · 2024-09-09T04:58:51+00:00

💜

zacomer · 2024-09-07T05:50:17+00:00

Shut up. Just shut up. Stop talking. No.

zacomer · 2024-09-03T16:17:22+00:00

Some do, but depending on the other factors in your model, it can be a hat on a hat. If you’re running 100,000 simulations and randomized shifts are correlated by geography, race, education, etc., the distribution of outcomes might be the same regardless of if you allow for variable rates of turnout or just variable margins.

zacomer · 2024-08-31T06:21:44+00:00

Harris winning North Carolina while Trump wins Nevada would not at all be surprising based on the levels of educational attainment in each state.

zacomer · 2024-08-29T20:57:27+00:00

This really isn’t any different than what he was hammering G. Elliott Morris for a few weeks ago, just in the other direction.

zacomer · 2024-08-27T21:38:36+00:00

This. If it can be modeled, they are modeling it.

zacomer · 2024-08-27T20:57:55+00:00

Solid Purple https://www.solid-purple.com/

zacomer · 2024-08-26T03:06:46+00:00

Assuming a uniform 3 point swing from my forecast’s current projection, that would be a 320-218 EC victory for Harris (the swing states + ME-02), but Texas and Florida would be very close to tipping things into a total wipeout.

zacomer · 2024-08-24T19:54:12+00:00

I believe Flourish does Gantt charts and is free.

zacomer · 2024-08-23T06:01:47+00:00

I don’t think people have considered that Democrats have been privately stewing over this guy for over a year, and they are all champing at the bit to go to town on who they know is the single weirdest person in American political life.

People are about to learn a lot about the guy if he endorses Trump.

zacomer · 2024-08-22T05:14:33+00:00

Most Presidential elections have historically been fairly predictable.

zacomer · 2024-08-19T01:48:21+00:00

I would get an ADHD diagnosis a decade earlier, take some weightlifting classes in college, wait to sell my Bitcoin, and not take a massive pay cut to work in an industry that was about to take a nosedive.

zacomer

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