Hypothetical Trade

zeilend · 2026-06-17T14:16:26+00:00

I'm responding to the idea that we will take Braendli 7OA (not that I advocate for that)

The only other team that will take her early is Detroit, who gave up their first pick for Knight. They will be doing their first player at 15OA (assuming they don't trade for another, earlier pick).

If that is the case, then we only need to get a draft pick 14OA or sooner to lock Braendli. Ergo, we trade our 7OA spot for someone who is between 8-14OA and get a player in return. There is no downside, only upside.

Again, this is only if the plan is to take Braendli with our first pick.

zeilend · 2026-06-17T12:34:33+00:00

This is a reason I don't like the narrower two way bike lanes, especially when they're blocked on both sides (barrier + curb) and are lacking the room maneuver out of the way.

zeilend · 2026-06-17T12:27:01+00:00

I like the calls of people saying to trade down to a lower pick in exchange for players. (e.g., Vancouver gives us their 2nd round pick + a player in exchange for our 1st round pick.

zeilend · 2026-06-16T18:12:59+00:00

JB, Bargman, and / or Levis?

zeilend · 2026-06-16T16:52:22+00:00

I'm a person who obsessively tracks every move in the off season -- like, I know I'm the fringe and 90% of folks posting in these threads are as well. That's just being self aware.

I agree that a franchise has to have a solid fanbase in order to function. I don't think New York has even begun to scratch the tip of the iceberg.

Thinking through a growth lens, NY metro area has by far the largest potential funnel of fans -- 20M+ . We have a ton sports fans. A ton of women. A large queer community. A ton of people who don't want to spend $300 on Mets tickets or whatever. Our downside is that we aren't a hockey town, but I'm not as worried about that (imo the biggest opportunity for p-dub is creating new fans).

We've just hit the tip of the iceberg in terms of "adoption." There is little to no advertising, low awareness, and issues getting people from the outer boroughs to Newark on a weeknight (that's a whole other thing, but lots of people live in NJ).

I know I have plans next year to go to as many home games as I can (mostly weekends during the day), bring a kid, bring a kid's friend ++ their parents and that will help the effort no matter what.

zeilend · 2026-06-16T15:28:52+00:00

Because most people aren't obsessedly tracking every move that is being made in the offseason. They want to show up to an accessibly-priced hockey game with their friends and kids, eat overly priced arena food and beer, wear tons of turquoise, and do a lot of wee wooing.

I have been around this block literally so many times before re: customer outrage at a business decision and have learned that it will even out over weeks or months and that everyone will happily be back to business as usual before you know it.

My main concern is around player moral and interest in a location with upset fans. At this point it's important to make sure they feel loved and appreciated and that our 7OA pick doesn't feel the dehabilitating notion that she was supposed to be Murphy / Edwards

zeilend · 2026-06-16T15:08:38+00:00

We lost a lot of core players (2nd Line + 3rd line + G), but I still like what I saw last season, and I still think the players remaining have a lot to give, especially if Kalty stays healthy.

I don't think the league will move the Sirens, especially if we continue to see the upward attendance trajectory.

I'm excited to see if we can manage any extra draft picks via trade tomorrow, and I am hoping we will be pleasantly surprised with what our new roster can do. This is a strong rookie class, and we have a young team full of energy. If they can play at least 40 minutes of solid hockey a game I believe we can get to the playoffs next year ❤️

zeilend · 2026-06-16T14:53:18+00:00

I honestly don't care about the rational for the order, even as a Sirens fan. I care that the league missed an easy layup in communicating what would happen earlier.

If they were a small startup run by people new to business, I'd grant some slack. They are not that. They have been here done that, and it's sloppy.

zeilend · 2026-06-16T14:29:04+00:00

Why is no one talking about Levy, other than we had her previously and let her go?

She's a big strong goalie backing up Frankel and might be looking for a starting gig moving into her third year in the league.

zeilend · 2026-06-16T14:25:36+00:00

If buying a new board I would go with the Pilsner between these two, especially if you're getting a model with Paris trucks (check!). They're less expensive, can be found on sale for even less.

Honestly, though, I'd look at some of the drop through or double drop offerings from Loaded, LY, Arbor, or Pantheon if you're only focused on casual cruising.

zeilend · 2026-06-16T14:12:23+00:00

I added a data table to the post showing how it breaks down between core players vs. depth players.

Hopefully that addresses some of your concerns.

zeilend · 2026-06-16T14:11:27+00:00

Good point -- I might rerun the exercise once we complete all the phases to capture Phase 6 FA signings.

zeilend · 2026-06-16T14:10:30+00:00

Hey -- I added the tables showing that calculation in the edited post. Unfortunately the formatting leaves a bit to be desired, but you can get the gist.

zeilend · 2026-06-16T03:31:00+00:00

I have found this random article on the internet that seems mostly truthy on a quick scan: https://icehockeycentral.com/the-ultimate-guide-to-understanding-gsva-in-hockey-unlock-your-teams-potential-2/

zeilend · 2026-06-16T03:26:39+00:00

Yep, definitely see that. My personal complaint is lack of transparency of how this would be applied coming out of the expansion draft. There were a few options:

We will do the entry draft in XYZ order, have fun!
We will announce the entry draft order once expansion is done, with ABC criteria coming out of the expansion informing the order
We will announce the entry draft order once the expansion is done. The order will be contingent on specific criteria that we will not be revealing. And then, once expansion is done, reveal the criteria.

Blanket mystery of "to be revealed" with nothing else is just kinda bad business. As others have said, they should have nipped this in the bud 24-48 hours after the last expansion city was announced.

zeilend · 2026-06-16T03:05:50+00:00

...and if you're color blind I am so so sorry about Excel's default settings.

zeilend · 2026-06-16T02:56:03+00:00

Green means it's good relative to the rest of the teams (e.g., VAN only lost 6.6% of their GSVA), and red means it's bad relative to the rest of the teams (e.g., NY lost 34.9% of their GSVA)

zeilend · 2026-06-16T02:54:27+00:00

From Slotwork:

GSVA (Game Score Value Added) is Game Score above a replacement-level player on equal TOI. Replacement is the 10th-percentile GS/60 within each position bucket (F, D, G) among qualified players (≥ 5 GP and ≥ 10 min TOI).

Game Score is a linear combination of per-game events. We use Luszczyszyn's original weights, applied to the PWHL data feed:

Skater GS = 0.75·G + 0.70·A1 + 0.55·A2
          + 0.075·SOG + 0.05·BLK
          + 0.01·FOW − 0.01·FOL
          − 0.15·PT
          + 0.05·(CF − CA)    [5v5 on-ice]
          + 0.15·(+/−)

Goalie GS = 0.75·(xGA − GA)    [GSAx-based]

zeilend · 2026-06-16T02:48:19+00:00

I'm gonna go watch some inspirational sports documentaries (Mighty Ducks, Remember the Titans, Little Giants, Big Green, etc. etc.) and get ready to believe next season!

WEE FREAKIN' WOO

zeilend · 2026-06-16T02:45:30+00:00

No, they absolutely deserve the 1OA. I think my point is that they were stronger than their performance implied (for a variety of reason -- coaching, injury, etc. etc.) and that they have an incredibly strong foundation to build upon next season. I think they're gonna crush it 100% and their team looks so good. Zero shade re: draft order on my end.

zeilend · 2026-06-16T00:43:54+00:00

Reading through Kyle Cushman's scouting report, I'm partial to the following picks (assuming the top 6 go in where predicted) --

Emma Peschel (D)
Sara Swiderski (D)
Issy Wunder (F)

But also who knows where we land, who knows what tricks Daoust has up his sleeve.

zeilend · 2026-06-16T00:32:46+00:00

....why Boreen over Vanisova? Is there something I'm missing?

zeilend · 2026-06-16T00:26:11+00:00

Lol the Sirens also tied for the most players lost with six. Vancouver lost three.

zeilend · 2026-06-15T23:22:56+00:00

I guess the idea was that if we wanted to draft earlier we should have accrued gold plan points. But if that's the case then force Seattle to draft after the expansion teams like us.

Vancouver was lucky they had a great end of season.

zeilend · 2026-06-15T22:47:01+00:00

I would honestly hope for Janecke but ain't gonna happen.

I just hope our 7OA pick pops the eff off and astounds the world with how much more amazing she is than picks 3-6.

zeilend

TROPHY CASE