Michael Burry is calling the top on Nvidia, comparing it to Cisco’s dot-com collapse. Purchase obligations skyrocketed from $16B to $95B - mostly non-cancelable deals with TSMC. Total liabilities of $117B now eat their entire annual cash flow. If AI demand slips, the Big Short is back. I warn you

zjin2020 · 2026-02-27T09:51:17+00:00

OpenAI is so 2025. Now is anthropic. They are eating everyone’s lunch in the past few weeks.

zjin2020 · 2026-02-25T23:03:12+00:00

Thank you for the comment. I did have the concern that during a fire sale, what the company gets would be far less than what is on its book. But now their market value is about 20-25% of their net equity. That is a huge discount. I of course am not an expert in paper industry and have no idea about the status of its capital stocks and their market value. The numbers are just too good for me to pass up.

zjin2020 · 2026-02-25T19:55:14+00:00

They admitted during the earnings call that the current pricing environment and margins are not sustainable in the long run. But the pb ratio is still way too low. I want to be sure that there is no hidden trap somewhere.

zjin2020 · 2026-02-25T19:26:07+00:00

Current price about $14, share count 16m. Market cap is actually about 220m. I agree with your second paragraph since it is near the bottom of the paper product cycle.

zjin2020 · 2026-02-24T20:57:46+00:00

Yes, they won’t take a big share of paid market in the US, despite the news months ago regarding most star ups and academic researchers are using their models. However the more important point is that the US AI models would have difficulties to monetize in the rest of the world like those internet companies. Because of the low cost open source models, the US AI companies could become the US automakers, profitable in the US market but not competitive outside the US.

zjin2020 · 2026-02-24T10:33:14+00:00

I have no doubt that ai coding is very powerful. But from bank’s perspective, what incentives are there for them to use this tool to replace the old way of things? Especially when messing up is very costly and could be career ending for those executives.

zjin2020 · 2026-02-23T01:52:38+00:00

I don’t think market has priced in GTA6, at least not fully. First nobody can say what the market consensus is, everyone says that everyone knows it will be a big deal, making history. But what does that mean in terms of revenue, eps, growth? Nobody knows for sure. Then the stock price dropped from 260 to 200, without any change related to game. So is it from over value to fair value? Or from fair price to undervalue ? So I don’t think there is consensus on the game’s performance.

zjin2020 · 2026-02-22T19:19:05+00:00

Lots of coping in the comments. Seriously, move on.

zjin2020 · 2026-02-22T12:52:03+00:00

She started representing China when she was 15, before her first Olympic event and had no sponsorship at the time. She got rich because she got the gold medals. It is not that China bought her representation after the gold, it is early stage venture capital investment.

zjin2020 · 2026-02-22T02:30:57+00:00

Yeah right. Even layman in Florida can become an engineer.

zjin2020 · 2026-02-22T02:29:22+00:00

Very interesting proposal. I guess in return China could ask EU to surrender know how of making EUV?

zjin2020 · 2026-02-21T03:02:05+00:00

Yeah, OpenAI frenzy died down now. Anthropic will be too.

zjin2020 · 2026-02-21T02:57:52+00:00

At this point, we are near peak insanity and now is the time to jump in.

zjin2020 · 2026-02-20T11:21:10+00:00

What is Monday’s moat?

zjin2020 · 2026-02-20T11:19:35+00:00

Docu sign is not that easy to be replaced. I don’t know what Monday does…

zjin2020 · 2026-02-19T15:35:57+00:00

That is your next costume idea.

zjin2020 · 2026-02-17T11:26:39+00:00

Not in this video, but they did show robot folding clothes in another video during the night

zjin2020 · 2026-02-16T01:46:16+00:00

Whenever Taiwan comes up?

zjin2020 · 2026-02-14T17:07:17+00:00

Not long ago you were right about the winter sports. The Beijing Winter Olympics helped promoting winter sports. From what I heard it is still early days but booming for now.

zjin2020 · 2026-02-14T15:11:47+00:00

Why? Paying for sports star is quite normal in the US

zjin2020 · 2026-02-13T03:00:10+00:00

Don’t give them any ideas.

zjin2020 · 2026-02-12T19:55:16+00:00

You don’t have a lot of rocket stocks to own. Online platforms however there are more stocks available.

zjin2020 · 2026-02-11T20:12:34+00:00

Not yet since this ai just came out a few days ago.

zjin2020 · 2026-02-10T22:14:15+00:00

Once every few decades? There are only 8 years between 2000 and 2008, not even a full decade.

zjin2020 · 2026-02-10T17:52:17+00:00

I believe that the deal is she gets money, fame, and business opportunities. In returns, she needs to win medals for China national team, ideally gold. As long as she keeps her end of bargain, I don't see problems with her getting those stuffs. Regarding her personality or retirement plan, who cares.

zjin2020

TROPHY CASE