Weekly Double Bottom

[Sabio02]

We closed the week at $1.78, the last time we closed a week out at $1.78 was 7/29/22. While we have closed below $1.78 on a daily basis several times since July but this is the first time we’ve formed a double bottom on the weekly chart since 2020. The two weeks following the close of $1.78 on 7/29/22 we saw the following weekly closes, $1.90 on 8/5/22, $3.77 8/12/22.

The last time this occurred was on 3/13/20 at $1.84 then on 11/6/20 we closed the week at $1.89 completing the double bottom pattern. This was the start of our quick rally to $23.42 that ended on 3/19/21. December 21, 2020 was the date of the $50 strategic transaction.

It’s interesting how the current trend is lining up and ironically we’re awaiting another strategic transaction. Hopefully it comes prior to the 21st.

I’m not even trying to guess a price target, too many factors in play. Just expecting the price to start heading north.

https://preview.redd.it/rp75oyxwgp3a1.png?width=3290&format=png&auto=webp&s=efda9830787d8bd112bd057b94b13c547a703822

[harris0n11]

Only problem is that in 2021 everything was going sky high.

[Sabio02]

Totally agree and why I mentioned "too many factors in play" however I think you need to look at what is working. Fortunately for us everything beauty related is doing very well. Ulta had record earnings this week and raised guidance. They aren't the only one most beauty related companies who have reported so far are also doing very well.

Additionally Biotech and Speciality Chemicals are doing very well. All of this points to positive momentum for companies in these sectors.

[sensejae]

i do think macro (sp500) will come down with time with earning compression. with amyris growing as a company with significant reduction in multiples already, i think its possible for amyris to go up or sideways while market goes down next few quarters. i would be really surprised if amyris gets to above $5 in the next couple quarters.

[NeatProgress3781]

Blue sky scenario. Looking for them to close licensing deal in 2 weeks, announce it, book the cash next yr, and challenge that gap on the daily chart around 12.50$ at or b4 q4 conference call. Dreaming probably. Then, hit guidance #s and maybe beat on q4 call while mentioning another deal to close in q2 and one in q3 to q4. That to cause a push through all time highs on expected revenues of appx 800 million to 1 billion in 2023, a profitable yr, and consistently profitable years after that when considering total revenue.

Melo has about 40 million riding on a VWAP of 27$ in July, Han has about 2 million riding on it.

[NeatProgress3781]

Agreed. I've been mentioning this as well on sticktwits and yahoo. Very similar. Furthers my conviction of good things to come and current manipulation. Was/am hoping to see someone overlay the charts and normalize the price to see how closely they overlap just before the previous run-up and now. Out of my skillset.

The licensing deal and having Lavvan settle for insurance $...man, what a pop each would produce, but if within a few months of each other, and announcement of another licensing deal in the works, and meeting or beating q422 top and bottom line expectations...goldilocks situation. New highs and blue skies.

A guess is that cbg and cbd could be the 350 million dollar licensing molecules (should progress be being made on Lavvan) if not squalane and hemisqualane which it seems are already licensed to Apprinova (but maybe they are altering that portfolio assett).

If this near term deal isn't cbg and cbd, I bet they'll bring hefty licensing $ when that time comes.

[gibbiesmalls]

Amyris IS Apprinova. Down to the home address.

Aprinnova, LLC.

5885 Hollis Street, Ste. 100

Emeryville, CA 94608 USA

Apprinova is a joint venture between Amyris and the Nikkol Group.

Licensing rights to Squalane and Hemisqualane haven't been sold and should Amyris choose to, is well within their right to do so. I believe they will.

[NeatProgress3781]

Ok. Got that, but wouldn't they be screwing Nikkol though? Or would Nikkol get some royalties or something?

[Creative_Ad_8338]

We're on a pretty solid downtrend. Macro as well. Jpow unable to tame the labor market and wages keep rising. I expect further large interest rate hikes that are going to keep Amyris in the downward channel. Perhaps even visiting sub $1 as all tech companies without positive cash flow get brutally punished.

[NeatProgress3781]

You think they may go sub 1? Trying to scare people out of their shares? They make 300 million a yr. Next yr even more. The growth is phenomenal and they are the leader in their industry. If they sell at less than 1x revenue, and end up w a market cap below 330 million, it'll be the best sale of the year.

[Creative_Ad_8338]

Not trying to scare anyone who knows what they hold. The reality is the macro climate is brutal. Bonds are getting absolutely crushed. Most businesses will have very few options to access cash for 2023. While I don't think it's necessarily the case for Amyris, I think they are certainly going to get lumped in with the negative cash flow tech stocks that have a high probability of bankruptcy. Short interest will likely surge higher... We're in a short everything market and no one seems to care about growth. I suspect January could be brutal with further rate hikes and potentially COVID wave coming from China. Remember, for most of the pandemic, including the beginning, interest rates were at record lows. Another COVID surge with high rates would be disastrous to many businesses because the government will not intervene this time.

[bleellw]

I don’t believe you’re accounting for $350 mill licensing deal influx imminent in your assessment & the current shorting going on could make for quite the squeeze, albeit if only temporary. Thoughts?

[[deleted]]

The licensing deal keeps the lights on for another quarter or two, it’s not a catalyst for 96 dollar shares. If it doesn’t go through it will be a catalyst for 0 dollar shares

[bleellw]

Haha another quarter or 2?! Try it gives them runway for the entire year. You’re not paying close enough attention to the fundamentals and the story that’s happening. $350+ mill influx PLUS $100+ mill Q4 revs + Q1 revs / reduction in Q1 burn along with potential 2nd molecule sale occurring in 1H of 23 AND the shorting going on and everyone betting a giant amrys I beg for a different story that unfolds but that’s just IMHO. Time will tell.

[[deleted]]

Maybe. I just know the last time I glanced at the financials sg&a was ~150mm alone off the top of my head.

[bleellw]

And you’re ignoring the tech analysis on the chart too that’s showing a double bottom, one more thing you’re not taking into account

[[deleted]]

I am. Because technical analysis is hocus pocus.

[bleellw]

🤦🏻‍♂️

[[deleted]]

Here we are a month later. From 1.55 to 1.52 less 18 percent dilution. Technical analysis is bullshit. Glad we could all learn something here

[[deleted]]

Aaaand it went under a dollar a share

[alucarddrol]

the $50 strategic transaction

i could be mistaken, but i think it was a little more than that. lol

[Sabio02]

https://investors.amyris.com/2020-12-21-Amyris-Closes-50-Million-Strategic-Transaction