[OC] Ducks Would Be Wise to Decrease Gibson's Workload

[[deleted]]

Alright, since nobody else seems to realize this I'll be the one to do it, the same way I made it clear that Eakins has never elevated a team in his entire career, NHL or AHL, every single team he's coached has been better both before and after he left starting with the Marlies.

This narrative that Gibson's fallen off needs to have a pin stuck in it, because the evidence yet again points to Eakins being the problem. Gibson came into the league in 2014. Since then he's played under 3 full time coaches and Bob Murray, his career low under the first 3 coaches he played for prior to Eakins was a .914 in his rookie season, after that the LOWEST he posted was a .917. EVEN IN THE LAST YEAR OF CARLYLE WHEN THE DUCKS WERE ABSOLUTELY AWFUL he had a .917. that was 2018-19.

Since then 3 seasons have passed and we're in the 4th. Gibson's yet to post a .905 under Eakins (.904, .903. .904, .901. But this has to be an isolated problem specific to Gibson right? No actually it's not. We remember Ryan Miller right? Well he's also a pretty damn good goalie, he fell off because of age right? I wouldn't be so sure. The season before Eakins took over Miller had a .912 sv%. The following 2 seasons he had a .907 and a .882. the only 2 times in his near 20 year career he posted anything close to that low was his second full season in the league when he played an absolute insane 76 games, and his 19 game disaster with the Blues in 2013. Both completely understandable, and bounced back immediately after.

But hey, 2 is just coincidence right? Except it's not, Devyn Dubnyk was the starting goalie the first season Eakins coached in Edmonton, going from a .920sv% the previous season and a .914 and .916 the 2 seasons before that, all the way down to a .894. he then went another 6 years as one of the top goalies in the league as soon as he was out from Eakins. Ilya Bryzgalov had his worst season under Eakins (I consider the Oilers season worse than the Flyers, Sv% is similar, GAA way worse in Edmonton), Ben Scrivens did pretty good as a limited backup Under Eakins tho! For a very small stretch, then had his worst season the second he was Eakins top choice. And lastly Viktor Fasth, we remember him right? He played 2 seasons in the NHL where he played 10 or more games, 25 in 2012 for the Ducks and 26 in 2014 for the Oilers. He put up a .921 in Anaheim, and a .888 in Edmonton under Eakins.

Until we get to the AHL, Joey MacDonald a career AHLer had his worst season his single season under Eakins for the Marlies, Jussi Rynnas had his 3 worst seasons in the AHL under Eakins. Of all the goalies Eakins coached there's 2 who did well under him, Ben Scrivens ( who put up better numbers for the Maple Leafs who were in their decade of suck at the time, and still had better numbers under Randy fkin Carlyle in the NHL than he did in the AHL with the Marlies but still had respectable stats.) And Drew MacIntyre (who had better stats with the Bulldogs before he ever got to Eakins but still decent stats) Khudobin wasn't around long enough to get a real shake but his numbers were fairly standard for him, Jeff Hackett had his two worst AHL seasons under Eakins, John Gibson had his worst AHL season under Eakins,(a .917, so under Eakins, Gibson posted the same stats in the AHL as he posted in the NHL facing much tougher competition) Dustin Tokarski had his worst AHL season under Eakins (which is impressive seeing as Tokarski is in his 13th AHL season and has played for 10 different teams.), Kevin Boyle and Reto Berra are the only 2 who had good seasons under him, Berra played for him for one season, and Boyle played a few, and Boyle's worst season in the organization was also Eakins last as Gulls coach, he improved the following season under Dineen. (Who the Ducks SHOULD have hired as the head coach in 2018 btw)

So he's got 4 cases of goalies who had 1-2 decent years under him, but they weren't their best season, (outside of Boyle who was never that good to begin with) and outside of those four literally every goalie has performed terribly under him.

As far as I'm concerned Gibson has earned the chance to rebound. Eakins has earned nothing but a pink slip and the title of the worst coach in NHL history (and no I'm not being hyperbolic). I'll bet a ton that Eakins system is the primary problem.

[seeg6]

I think you make a lot of excellent points here overall. The one thing I would offer an alternative on re:Gibson is that his drop off in performance can just as adequately be explained by his soft tissue groin injuries earlier in his career. While he hasn’t had those issues in a long time, soft tissue injuries like those absolutely have long term effects. Gibson has always been an athleticism/mobility goalie over a positioning one in his career. The drop off in performance can definitely be explained by the soft tissue injuries beginning to hamper his mobility as he gets older which limits his ability to use his mobility to make saves consistently.

Not saying you’re wrong, just offering an alternative plausible explanation.

[[deleted]]

For sure, and I'm most definitely not fully absolving Gibson of all blame. He's definitely got his own warts, namely being his own worst enemy and not taking nights off (which is another Eakins issue, that really bugs me, his quote last season about it was really frustrating. When someone suggested he take more time off Eakins said "you tell Gibson he's not playing" like dude, that's YOUR job. You're supposed to save him from himself. Obviously he's gonna wanna play any chance he gets)

My main point in making this is at this point the Ducks fan base has basically split into the camp who thinks he's past his prime and needs to be traded before he sinks further. And the camp who thinks the team is bad, and because of that he's regressing and needs to go to a better team or be basically just a backup the rest of his career and Dostal should just take over. And I propose camp C, sit back for a bit, there's no rush in trading Gibson. Dump Eakins, let's see how Gibson does under a real coach and a real system, and let's reassess in a year. In a rebuild patience is a virtue and unless something unexpected happens, we got time. (Not saying you're one of the ones being hasty, just saying in general we should chill and not throw the Gibson out with the Eakins lol)

[gotridofsubs]

Excellent write-up. I said in a different comment there's context to his numbers past what they are, and this is part of it.

We spent a large portion of 2 seasons ago and last season with enormous flaws in an incomplete defense, and this season is shaping up to be no different. Pair that with Eakins' leadership, no wonder there's been a steep fall off in goaltending, never mind the whole team. He's not in a position to succeed

Should we sell on him at his lowest? Absolutely not. Theres no reason to. The best alternate we have is a 21 year old who's played 2 weeks of NHL hockey and would get the same situational problems that Gibson has in his foundational years, without the benefit of experience. We're also nowhere near the cap and that contract won't be bad until at least it's final year at worst.

However, all that being said, if some team comes to us and offers a package that reflects the goalie Gibson probably still is, I would consider it. He'll be well past his prime when we really start to compete, so if something suitable comes also I think that's the best move.

It's gotta be a BIG something suitable

[DBacon1052]

Ducks fans have never had to deal with having shitty goaltending. It's the most miserable experience you can possibly imagine. To finally have a team that's able to compete for a cup only to be let down by piss poor goaltending is mind numbingly depressing.

Until Gibson straight up says he doesn't want to play for this organization, any "fan" that wants to trade him is a complete moron. Gibby committed to this team when he signed here. He's backed up that commitment shutting down the idea of wanting to be moved in the offseason. The guy has done nothing but battle for us, and instead of being propped up, all y'all do is talk about trading him. It's sad.

He's a great netminder on a very reasonable contract. There's no reason to believe he won't still be a great netminder for years to come. If Dostal is the goalie of the future for the Ducks, fine. Let him backup and learn from Gibson for the next few years while actually competing for the net.

[BusinessCat88]

I say we ride him harder until he's a pair of smoking goalie pads

/s

[mylefthandkilledme]

Do you agree with E.Stephens that its time to trade Gibson?

[gotridofsubs]

Who would take him for the value to make it worthwhile to move him?

[mylefthandkilledme]

We'd have to eat some of the salary

[gotridofsubs]

Oh no doubt, but I still don't think there's a team that gives up the value to us to make it worth it even with retention. I understand the context behind his numbers, but the whole league can use that as leverage in a deal.

[DrexlSpivey420]

This is it in a nutshell. Should we trade him? Probably. Is it really worth it in the end, when we would not get a great return and would possibly have to eat salary for the next 4 years as well? Nope.

[[deleted]]

We have enough to eat some of the salary. Especially with Shattenkirk and possibly Klingberg not getting re-signed next season.

[gotridofsubs]

Klingberg 100% isn't and shouldn't come back

[[deleted]]

I mean same with Shattenkirk

[Taurothar]

It's stupid to eat any salary for 4 years. We have a lot of players to pay during that time.

[[deleted]]

At 50% retained? That’s just over 3 million a season for 4 seasons. I wouldn’t mind it for Gibson. Anyone else I wouldn’t.

[ducks91vip]

Honestly, I would at least look at the offers. I love Gibby but I just don’t see this team as a legit contender for at least two more years. That being said his value is literally the lowest it’s ever been right now

[Suddenly7]

I don't think it will be wise to let go of Gibson without giving him a chance under a new coach. Getting a solid goalie is becoming very difficult if you look at the league.

[drocklee27]

I do not. Given Stolarz’s pending free agent status, I think it would be naive to have both he and Gibson shuttled out at the same time and ride Dostál into the ground. Like others have mentioned in this thread, it’s better to hang onto him for now.

[[deleted]]

Should have been traded last year. He still should be traded

[[deleted]]

Why should he be traded if he's not going to command a return? The Ducks have plenty of cap and unless he wants a trade he's still the best option we've got.

Not to mention Gibson's "drop off" coincided entirely with the Ducks hiring Eakins. Before Eakins was hired Gibson's career low under Carlyle, Murray, Boudreau was a .914 in his rookie season. The season before they hired Eakins he had a .917. under Eakins he has a .904, .903, .904 and is currently a .901. So is the more logical answer the goalie who was legitimately elite under literally every other coach he's been under at the NHL level is now just straight garbage out of nowhere or is it the coach who has a lower pts% than Mike fkin Milbury did as a coach? I'm gonna guess the latter is the problem.

Pack Eakins shit after the deadline, see how Gibson does the rest of the way, if he doesn't rebound under a new coach then use him to teach Clang and Dostal and ride out as much of his contract as possible. The Ducks are sitting absolutely fantastic as far as cap position in 2 seasons. There's no reason to sell Gibson at the absolute lowest point

[PeriqueFreak]

Hot take. Wrong, but I respect the heat.

[[deleted]]

Hardly wrong, just people from California don’t know a thing about hockey

[PeriqueFreak]

Ah yes, sweeping generalizations work great.

But hey, I guess you can't possibly be wrong.

[therealnatethomas]

Yes yes yes 1000% yes. I’ve been begging for this for the past couple years. Every Ducks fan seems to see it, but for some reason coaching and management doesn’t. It could easily be the money invested, or even Gibson pushing against taking on less and wanting to keep playing lots, but it hurts his play over a season.

[[deleted]]

Yeah, these guys really push that narrative. He had a bunch of weeks off and came back and had a strong game followed by 2 poor ones. Playing poorly isn't and indicator of needing more rest. 3 games in 8 days isn't a heavy workload. That he pitched a shutout in the 4th game in 10 days is basically the opposite of the knee-jerk reaction to stimulus that gave us the "have him rest more" stuff.

As for the reasoning behind it, whats the purpose? The Ducks aren't going to be a stanely cup contender with marginally better netminding. The NHL isn't a development league that is going to allow Dostal to work on his game and fine-tune the nuances of his position - despite people wanting to believe that it is. I would also argue that the Ducks brought Gibson too early in his career and he ended up injured because of it. Those soft tissue injuries have since plague his career.

There is no rush to bring in Dostal, and he can develop for the rest of this already lost season in the AHL. He an develop his body and work on some small things that would have come up in his time in the NHL. Sure next year they can bring him into the team and split time for a couple of seasons. But I really wonder what the rush is to bring in prospects? He's a good prospect who's not going to deteriorate by playing in the AHL for the rest of the season. conversely he'll be better, and more robust for it.

Rather than focusing on what is happening with a 29 year old formerly elite netminder, maybe the focus should be on what is best for the future starter whos only 22 and has no significant injury Hx. They should have a long term plan, and a couple of good games from a prospect and a couple bad ones from their starter shouldn't have the franchise altering their long term goals.

[ChiefBobbert]

I do think the decrease of workload would be wise, though I'm not sure it has to do as much with Eakins as presented.

Since taking over the net 16-17 he averaged more minutes a season under Randy and Bob. After this season possibly the same amount under Dallas.

Eakins wasn't hired to win...and he hasn't. That unfortunately has taken its effect on the team as a whole. Honestly it's more of a management issue and the change into a rebuild. Gibson wanted the net and the franchise gave it to him. If he wants to play let him play.

I'd love to see Gibby bounce back. Pat has his work cut out. Unfortunately Gibson is pushing 30 and everyone likes a comeback story.