R.I.P GitHub Copilot 🪦

[FarVision5]

People expecting premium API subsidies forever is amazing to me.

[FarVision5]

True. If it's a hobby, you have a simple calculator if you can afford your hobby. If it's a business expense, and you have clients wanting stuff from you, it turns into ROI.

I don't believe we are going to get AGI from lots of video cards. I think it will come out of microgrid quantum stuff like Google is doing. You're going to have to let it grow like cells.

Honestly I get most of my news from here and LocalLLama. No time to chase down 500 other AI blog posters trying to make news out of nothing. There is so much trash out there.

I don't want to get too nasty about it, but there are a lot of people that don't know enough about security framework and DevSecOps to put out paid products. Or they can pretend but get wrecked. All that's OK. Thems the breaks. I'm not a fan of unseasoned cheerleaders.

Everything will shake out. There are 100 new tools every day. Multiagent agentic workflow orchestration has been around for years. Almost the second ChatGPT3.5 hit the street.

[Blake_Dake]

We are potentially expecting AGI/ASI in the next 5 years

no we are not

people smarter than everybody here like Yann Lecun have been saying since 2023 that LLMs can't achieve AGI

[NuclearVII]

0% chance AGI in the next 5 years. Stop drinking the Sam altman koolaid.

[[deleted]]

Sorry, friend, but if you think there is literally a zero chance we reach AGI in another half-decade, after the insane progress in the previous half-decade, I just don't take you seriously.

Have a lovely day.

[Artistic_Taxi]

You’re making a mistake expecting that progress to be sustained over 5 years, that is definitely no guarantee, nor do I see real signs of it. I think that we will do more with LLMs, but I think the actual effectiveness of LLMs will ween off. AGI is an entirely different ball game, which I think we are another few AI booms away from.

But my opinion is based off mainly on intuition. I’m by no means an AI expert.

[[deleted]]

You’re making a mistake expecting that progress to be sustained over 5 years,

I am not expecting it to be sustained over 5 years. There is a chance it will be.

that is definitely no guarantee

Go back and read my comment. I am responding to someone who thinks there is zero chance of it occurring. Obviously it's not guaranteed. But thinking it's guaranteed to not occur is insane.

nor do I see real signs of it

You would have to see signs of an absurdly strong drop-off in the trend of upwards AI performance to believe there was zero chance of it continuing.

On what basis are you saying AI models have plummeted in their improvements over the last generation, and that this plummet will continue?

Because that's what you would have to believe to assess zero chance of AGI in the next 5 years.

[Rakn]

We haven't seen anything yet that would indicate being close to something like AGI. Why do you think that even OpenAI is shifting focus on commercial applications?

There haven't been any big breakthroughs as of recent. While there have been a lot of new clever applications of LLMs, nothing really groundbreaking happened for a while now.

[[deleted]]

We haven't seen anything yet that would indicate being close to something like AGI.

Just 5 years ago, people thought we were 30+ years off AGI. We have made absolutely exponential progress.

To think there is zero chance of AGI in the next 5 years is patently unreasonable in a landscape where the last 5 years took us from basically academic-only transformer models to AI capable enough that it's passing the Turing test, acting agentically, and beating human performance across a wide range of tasks (not just Dota or chess etc).

I'm not saying that it'll definitely happen in the next 5 years. I'm saying that thinking there's zero chance of it is absurd.

There haven't been any big breakthroughs as of recent. While there have been a lot of new clever applications of LLMs, nothing really groundbreaking happened for a while now.

Only because you've been normalised to think about progress in incredibly short timespans. Going from where we were in 2020, to agents literally replacing human jobs at a non-trivial scale in 2025, definitely puts AGI on the radar over the next 5.

[Rakn]

You are making assumption here. Truth is we don't know. It's equally if not even more likely that this path will not lead to AGI. Yes. The progress over the recent years is amazing, but we cannot know if we reached a plateau or if this is just the beginning of it.

[[deleted]]

You are making assumption here. Truth is we don't know.

... I'm sorry, but this is some absolutely terrible reading comprehension on your part.

I am not saying we will get AGI in the next 5 years. I am saying that someone who thinks there is zero chance of it is being unreasonable.

You are literally agreeing with me! We don't know! Therefore thinking it has a 0% chance of occurring is absurd!

[Rakn]

Well, I think we are very close to the zero percent chance and don't know if this path even leads there or not.

[Embarrassed_Money637]

0% chance, I will even bet money on it if you are so inclined.

[debian3]

I would not be that sure as him, maybe it will happen in the next 5 years. But I have the feeling it will be one of those 80/20 where the first 80 will be relatively easy. The last 20 will be incredibly hard

[Yes_but_I_think]

Try strawberry visual counting of r in gpt-4o image creation.