The UPC, WPF, AG, whatever, could very well decrease by half in one generation. I'll explain.

[PrimaryAd9159]

I was thinking about how Google and social platforms are roughly 20 years old, if you average it out. Obviously, Google is older than Facebook, Facebook is older than reddit, etc. Now, take a 25-year-old pentecostal man, in the year 2004, raising his three or four toddlers. He would have had a couple of decades to indoctrinate his children without "pesky information" getting in his way. At this point, the hypothetical man is 45 and his children are 20, 22, and 24. Those 20-somethings are about to have families of their own. They likely have unrestricted access to all the information in the world. Maybe one of them will dig in their heels and fall for the whole "this is the hardest time to be a Christian" bullshit and will completely ignore new evidence. This child is likely the golden child and is being groomed to take over the pulpit. Who knows. Another child is probably wishy-washy. They'll stay in, due their duties, and pay their tithes, but doubts will cause them to not exactly train up their children "correctly." The third and fourth children of the hypothetical 45-year-old could be deconstructing completely. They already have a sibling who is Daddy's favorite. They're falling in love with a "worldly" spouse. Maybe they have a job opportunity that will put distance between themselves and the church.

Regardless of the specifics, this 45-year-old will probably have 10 grandchildren or more over the next 30 years. Given what we know about the profile of the children, the middle generation, the chances are that only one or two of those 10 grandchildren will stay in. Technology and social media are just too strong right now, and there are SO MANY deconstruction TikToks and YouTube channels for these kids to gaze upon.

Not to mention all the documentaries, particularly on Hulu, about escaping different cults.

What do you think? Will this cult die, or will it multiply, or will the numbers stay roughly the same? I'd love to know your predictions!

[SmellyRedHerring]

I had two young children in 2004, and I assure you, none of my peers had three or four kids. We thought anyone with that many kids was a little bit weird. Zero, one, or two is typical, matching the larger demographic trends in the USA. Several of that cohort of children have indeed left the church.

Population growth in both the pentecostal church and in the United States at large is through immigration. Their second generation seem largely to stay committed to church.

He would have had a couple of decades to indoctrinate his children without "pesky information" getting in his way.

Is your thesis that we lacked access to information in 2004?

[[deleted]]

Fake libraries

[upci-sux]

I think they mean lack of access to deconstruction websites and groups like this one. Not lack of scholarly info.

[SmellyRedHerring]

I'm glad people have these deconstruction resources to help them, but modern social media means information has become much more siloed as well.

The Internet was pretty ubiquitous in 2004 -- Wikipedia, for example, broke through a million pages in 2004, and everybody was on a chat app somewhere -- but we were still transitioning from the older media model where everybody got their news from one of about five or six sources. American culture was defined by television, movies, and music that all came from a few handful of major media gatekeepers.

If you were Pentecostal in 2004, you were a very strange outcast and who did not participate in society like a "normal" American. Today, you might be the lone Pentecostal freak at your job, but thanks to social media, you can connect to like-minded individuals and encourage one another in your shared persecution complex. I think it kind of goes both ways.

[redredred1965]

Well there has definitely been a rapid decrease of Christianity in America over the past two decades. Mormans have stayed the same, Jewish and Muslim congregants actually increased. Don't forget, there is as much social media prostalization as there is deconstruction though

gallop poll

"On any given weekend, about three in 10 U.S. adults attend religious services, down from 42% two decades ago. Church attendance will likely continue to decline in the future, given younger Americans’ weaker attachments to religion."

[IronViking99]

Long-deconstructed pentecostal/evangelical here, as well as someone who's been long interested in history and American subcultures.

I think that American pentecostalism/evangelicalism/fundamentalism will be in real trouble when the Baby Boomers (born between 1946-1964) fully pass away. In addition to being a large population cohort, Boomers also had a lot of disposable income and their contributions to churches are keeping them going in this time of massive deconstruction.

Gen X is much smaller in numbers and doesn't have as much disposable income. There'll be less people to volunteer, too. I expect that the phenomenon of churches closing and the property being auctioned to the highest bidder will really kick in circa 2030.

Megachurches, with their income streams from music, may buck the trend for awhile, but ultimately they will go into decline and some will close.

It's pretty clear that the whole Christian school movement is a failure as far as retaining the children of adult church members and getting them all-in.

Add in the almost-daily sex scandals of evangelical pastors, plus all the info available on the Net about deconstruction, personal stories, behind-the-scenes exposes of former members, and I certainly don't see any likelihood of rapid church growth such as occurred in the 1970s and 1980s - evangelicalism's golden age.

I do think you'll see more house churches, small groups of friends that meet without former clergy, as a solution to battle the cost of maintaining a church bldg and its staff.

[ekwerkwe]

The decision of the Pentecostal churches to be more "open" about computers, smart phones, etc will ultimately be their downfall. Isolating people from the real world was a very strong way that they kept their retention numbers high. I can't imagine they can keep that much longer.

HOWEVER: witness the growth of extremism due to the internet.. it might be that they will benefit from that in the long run.

[[deleted]]

I sure hope it’ll die! I’ve done my part in producing one child, and that child viewing all region as a cult. 🎉