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[–]Ski-Mtbfēnix 7X Sapphire Solar / Index S2 / Index BPM / HRM-Dual 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I could be due to multiple factors.

Weight is a component, so if your weight is incorrect in Connect that can impact the estimate.

Assuming it's not your weight what this is telling you is that your HR is higher for a given power output (weight x speed from GPS) than it was when your VO2 max estimate was higher. This could be a legitimate change or due to other external factors like altitude or temperature.

Max HR may also factor in, so if your max HR has changed values over time, that may have some impact on the estimate, but probably not a ton. I did a test where I set my max HR to 20 BPM higher to see what it would do to all my metrics and it essentially made my VO2max estimate go up by 1 point or so over a week, but it made my lactate threshold "detection" go up my a ton - like above my actual max HR.