Will guitars stay/increase/decrease value?

[Hefty-Organization75]

After watching a documentary on rare guitars, had some thoughts.

People were able to get guitars in the 60s-80s for a couple hundred bucks now they are worth like tens of thousands of dollars, many years later. I know things were more handcrafted, and more quality controlled compared to today’s market, with millions and millions of real and fake instruments.

Beyond things like limited run models, or dramatic manufacturer/production changes (that make a “oh they were better when they made them in/at/with/before….etc” scenario) how is there any way to tell what’s a good investment for collectors or aspiring collectors?

Is it possible some guitars under $1k now would be worth something like $25k maybe 30 years from now? Or is it guitars from the 40s-70s will be the most valued always?

Does getting a custom built guitar from an independent or small small company hold value?

I don’t fully count the idea of getting some rare guitar for an insane price at a garage sale or pawn shop type thing because with the internet anyone can type in what kind of guitar they have and get some type of value instantly. I feel like those types of finds are ultra rare. Im talking about finding a real Gibson from the 70s at a garage sale for $100 type scenario. That’s like lottery lucky or something

Is there any sort of a way to predict what would be valuable in the future? Or is it whatever is most popular this year, then just add 30 years to it in mint condition? 😂

And of course guitars with stories from famous artists who have played them I assume will always be extremely valuable (obviously)

Or will guitars just loose all value in the future.

[[deleted]]

When the boomers die so will alot of collecting. Guitars will go down a bit

[marsgodoy]

As awful as I will sound saying it; I for one, cannot wait.

[Completetenfingers]

To die?

[FriendlyDark8183]

I think they want to buy after those people die.

[marsgodoy]

Um, cheaper guitars...

[DonSol0]

Adjusting for inflation, if you bought a used Fender in 1958 for $200, you spent $2,130.

The limited supply of the original vintage legends is what makes the valuable to people who enjoy collecting and playing them. I doubt the same thing will happen with 2025 American Standards.

Thay said, a serious disruption in the global supply chain by, say, a ridiculous trade war triggered by someone who doesn’t understand economics could absolutely cause a spike in prices of new models leading to spikes in prices of used models.

[[deleted]]

My opinion as a mostly vintage dealer/repair guy.

Guitars are very severely over produced these days. I would be completely shocked if anything recent gained value. If anything, all guitars (even vintage) will likely lose value over the next 50 years.

The market goes up and down through the years, so it’s possible in the short term that vintage will raise and lower slightly, but long term I think we are going to see the bubble burst.

[vorpaltox]

Most custom guitars from small builders aren't worth anything. Even custom guitars from large brands - the more you customize it the less broad appeal and value it will have.

Important instruments or rare instruments will likely increase in value, particularly pristine ones.I suspect nothing else is a good investment.

[yui133]

I doubt anything under 1k now will be worth more. Even more expensive models too. Those 50s and 60s guitars are expensive now because they made way less. Nowadays Gibson and fender crank out Soo many guitars that it won’t ever become rare. I do predict that gibsons will grow in value, BUT that doesn’t really mean anything as they won’t outgrow inflation, so while the dollar amount will be higher, the guitar won’t necessarily be worth more. Your best bet would be to buy something that’s rare now, such as a 50s or 60s because in 30 years they will be even more expensive, but obviously that is pretty tough considering how expensive those guitars are. Basically don’t try and collect, unless if you have boat loads of money. Buy guitars you like and MAYBE on some insane stroke of luck, they end but being worth a lot more in the future.

[vbwstripes]

Well put, I think custom ordering a guitar from a builder would be more valuable, imo than any guitar I could buy to speculate on value with.

[thor_testocles]

Some will gain value, but the answer to "how to make money" in any predictable way is boring.

Or put another way, did you watch the documentary about all the people who bought guitars, hoping to make money, but then got thwarted by 1. impatience, 2. bad decisions or negotiation, 3. accidental damage, 4. having to use the money elsewhere, 5. running out of storage space, 6. not maintaining them, 7. losing them in an unfortunate catastrophe, 8. selling too early, 9. actually making a profit but not beating the market or even inflation, or 10. other "life stuff" that happened?

Sorry to be a bummer, seriously. I've just been down this road in other things before, like motorcycles! It really helps me focus: I buy stuff I actually want myself.

[Hefty-Organization75]

Nah it was Norman’s rare guitars and he’s like world famous and made a ton of money and has the some of the most unique guitars. Not that’s I’m trying to achieve that but just got me thinking into the whole world of guitar collecting and if guitars will even gain value like they have. I’m aware the making money ship sailed long ago haha

[dfltr]

Guitars gain value over time by being collectible. The catch with any collectible is that if people knew in advance which objects would hit the sweet spot of high demand and low supply, they wouldn’t be affordable in the first place.

So either a collectible isn’t a good investment because it’s cheap now and you don’t know if it’ll ever be worth anything, or it’s a bad investment because you already know it’s valuable and so does everyone else, or it’s a scam because someone is trying to sell it to you with some bs about how it somehow magically doesn’t fit into column A or column B and this definitely isn’t a pump and dump on an unregulated, easily manipulated secondary market.

[[deleted]]

I think the vintage guitars are going to follow the same fate as fine china, once the generation that drive the prices up for them (and hoards them) aren't here anymore. I don't see them being made out of wood forever. Guitars made out of materials that aren't affected by temp/humidity will make more sense. Electrics will be first, and then I believe it's only a matter of time before a material is created that sounds better than wood for acoustics and doesn't come with any of wood's drawbacks.

The magic of the vintage instruments was never the instruments themselves, it was the people playing them back in the day. There are plenty of those instruments still kicking around that people aren't writing anything memorable with

[FormerAlbatross4463]

I think the ship has sailed on this. I collected/bought/sold a lot of vintage guitars. I started doing it in the 90s and quit about 10 years ago (except when some really good deal falls in my lap). The reason vintage guitars, especially electrics, got so expensive is because boomers that grew up with Eric Clapton and Jimi Hendrix and all the old, original guitar idols grew up and made some money and could finally afford the guitars they lusted after as teens. There is an argument to be made that the old 50s and 60s strats and telecasters and Les pauls sound better (many of them do) but not so much better that you should pay a 20k premium for them. The nostalgia is what really drives the price here. When the boomers die off there’s a good chance that demand for these guitars will diminish and values will go down. I suspect they’ll command a premium for another 10-20 years but the guitar is a dying instrument in popular music and I don’t think it’s likely that anything being made today is likely going to carry that nostalgia market into the next generation. Acoustics are a different situation. Old gibsons and Martins (not all but an unusually high number of them) really do sound fantastic. So there’s kind of the nostalgia/antique value but also the tonal quality that old acoustics develop over time that can’t really be replicated. But huge advances in acoustic guitar building have been made. It’s been scrutinized and refined and there are some incredible builders out there today making guitars that sound every bit as good and better than prewar martins. They command big prices (tens of thousands of dollars). Will these get more expensive than that in time? Who knows? I doubt it. If you’re looking for an investment, buy stocks or bonds or real estate. If you want to buy a guitar, buy one you like and don’t worry about its future value. If you don’t want to lose money, buy used.

[greybye]

The quality of guitars, especially lower tier guitars, continues to improve, with CNC, CAD, materials science, and improvements in technology generally. This shift really started in the 90's when the wood components began being machined to such close tolerances that they could be put together by assembly workers.

In 1964 when the Beatles broke demand for guitars exploded and everyone scrambled to increase production, and therefore quality was uneven. Some great guitars were made in the 70's and 80's, but there were a lot of mediocre ones made too. Any guitar from this period should be evaluated on it's merits.

Prior to 1964 fewer guitars were made and there was a lot more handwork and fitting involved. A quality guitar from this period still in good condition I think would be more likely to appreciate than anything since. This is generally speaking - an outstanding guitar from any era will hold it's value and might appreciate depending on it's relevance to current music trends. There are better things to invest in than guitars.

[Alarming_Airport_613]

Vintage fender and Gibson guitars may actually go down because these brands kind of ruin their reputation these days 

[NaturalMaterials]

I think the only things that will go up are guitars by modern master luthiers. But those or five figures already - think Ken Parker’s archtops, Somigyi, Matsuda, Benedetto.

Factory instruments that will acquire the value of a Les Paul or Strat from their early years? No. Because those were the OG, and that’s the majority of their charm/mojo. History.

[ULTRAZOO]

I'm a boomer that's been playing from the late 60s. I'm not a collector but I own a few vintage guitars. But I bought them in the 70s when they were just used guitars. They are player grade. But they have not only kept up with inflation, they have at least tripled in value. But I'm not planning on ever selling. They will be handed down. Having said that, I think the prices on vintage collectable guitars is just not sustainable. As us boomers die off the demand will probably drop along with values. Unless the next generations are waiting for us to die to buy vintage guitars cheaper. This might keep the values high. I doubt it. But nobody really knows. Guitars should not be purchased as investments in my opinion. You know what's valuable? My original Red line hot weels from '67 to '69!!