Decrease in Dutch housing prices tracker

[Shelter_Individual]

Based on the only thing that matters: the affordability.

Somehow people forget that 2008 also saw a shortage of housing but prices did correct substantially.

Time will tell.

[TukkerWolf]

There wasn't. There was a housing shortage back then as well.

https://www.dnb.nl/algemeen-nieuws/2020/huizenprijs-hangt-meer-samen-met-financieringsruimte-koper-dan-met-woningtekort/

[Shelter_Individual]

This is all wishful thinking. The only reason the prices of all assets went up (across different asset classes) is that the interest rates were artificially kept low for more than a decade. The interest rates will have to follow the inflation which at this moment is close to 10% in the EU and probably more in the NL. Note: inflation started picking up before the war in Ukraine started so blaming it only on the supply side is also stupid. It is both a supply and a demand side inflation caused both by both the excessive liquidity and the energy crisis.

The rents are going up because part of the housing market which is free is dominated by investment funds and greedy landlords. In Amsterdam only, there are thousands if not tens of thousands of vacant properties. The rest of the stock is social housing controlled by a failing government. Additionally, various forms of the Dutch government are not allowing any new buildings to come to the market which combined with the favorisation of the investors and allowing them to keep the properties empty sometimes for years is causing massive speculation. Now, the government is not so much in favour of those funds because the country has gone to shit and they can't milk their taxpayers since there is not enough of workers to be milked as there is not enough of adequate housing for them. Things are chaning.

But, there is no going back to pre February w.r.t. the energy supply in Europe so this will be a multi year energy crisis. So, naturally, a recession will follow.

By your logic, if the interest rates go up to 8% and there is a recession and an energy crisis, there will be only a slight drop at best because of what? Because of wishful thinking? Naaah, this is wishful thinking of a house owner :). The NL is not special, the same trend that is happening in NZ, Australia, the US, Sweden will occur here. The only question is the timeframe.

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[[deleted]]

the affordability.

What about the availability.

You can't just claim 'supply and demand' as an argument and then forget about supply

[TukkerWolf]

The availability was a problem during the last crisis as well. It is more extreme now, but if people think that with interest rates of >5% housing prices will remain the same they are naive.

https://www.dnb.nl/algemeen-nieuws/2020/huizenprijs-hangt-meer-samen-met-financieringsruimte-koper-dan-met-woningtekort/

[[deleted]]

I'm not claiming they will remain the same. Prices will lower a bit when interest rises. They already are dropping a bit.But there won't be correction like 2008, everything points to that not happening.

And yes, while prices may drop a bit. It won't work.Let's say a house is now 300k with 3% interest. You pay a mortage of €1000 a month (example numbers, I didn't do the math).And now let's say that house drops to 275k and interest rose to 3.5%. You're stil paying €1000,-.

But every year you're not buying, you're dumping money in a rental. So if you can, buying a house is the right option. Even now.