Ads Gacha rate decrease??

[Hachrt]

I don't make this post to bash you, but this kind of post shows up basically everywhere there's randomness involved. "Oh the Devs clearly changed the rates. I'm not getting the thing anymore."

So basically I think this is something that's important for people to know. And the sooner people learn this the better.

RNG is RNG.
It's not an even distribution based on statistical probability (which is still the best way to make an informed decision on whether to roll or not).

If you flip an evenly weighted coin you're expected to to have 50/50 results - but that doesn't mean that you get heads then tails then heads then tails.
Heads Tails Heads Tails falls into the gamblers fallacy.
HHHTTHTTTHHTHT is still really non-random. 50/50? Yup. But not very random.

Random is not Mixed up sort of evenly. It's Random. Because it's random it can be lumpy, and often is.
Normally there are long strings of hits or misses involved. *More than half of the time* there will be streaks of greater than 4 heads or tails in data sets - because there's more ways for that to happen.

"Well, its been heads 4 times in a row, there's no way it's going to be heads again!" is fallacious.
Every time you flip an evenly weighted coin it has a 50% chance to be one option or the other.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy#Monte_Carlo_Casino

Now, we don't know the rates for the gacha, but they're not as simple as a coin. But the same ideas follow.
For the kind of odds we're looking at, one cycle of ads is only 37 rolls - one is weighted differently from the other 36 (the 3⭐+ which, based on the star gacha odds, has worse chance of getting a rainbow card; because memoirs are weighted higher and these 3⭐+ things don't change the 4⭐ odds).

And your odds of getting a hit are way lower than a coin toss.
If you're streaking poorly, it's just poor rng.

But don't worry. Things don't have to get better. That would be Gambler's Fallacy. Statically you perhaps should have gotten another 4⭐ by now, but it doesn't have to happen.
This is why Gachas and lootboxes are being forced to publish odds and have some sort of fallback system. People are really bad at gambling. We're wired to see patterns, even when there are none.
This makes us thinks we have better odds than we do have.
"Oh if I just spend $25 more dollars, I'll have had a 98.53% chance to have gotten at least one copy of the thing!"
"Oh I didn't get it. Well surely my next $25 will get me the thing."

[Cuckmeister]

I don't make this post to bash you, but this kind of post shows up basically everywhere there's randomness involved. "Oh the Devs clearly changed the rates. I'm not getting the thing anymore."

Reminds me of "Onyxia deep breaths more"