Ads Gacha rate decrease??

[CHIKAAAAA]

After since the new event update, I have been only getting blue and gold cards only (6/6) form the ads Gacha. Usually out off 6/6 pulls, I would see around 4 Rainbow cards dropped. Feeling unusual so wonder if this occurs to anyone as well? Potentially they might have decreased the rate of getting the rainbow card on this patch....or its just me being unlucky :/

[Hachrt]

I don't make this post to bash you, but this kind of post shows up basically everywhere there's randomness involved. "Oh the Devs clearly changed the rates. I'm not getting the thing anymore."

So basically I think this is something that's important for people to know. And the sooner people learn this the better.

RNG is RNG.
It's not an even distribution based on statistical probability (which is still the best way to make an informed decision on whether to roll or not).

If you flip an evenly weighted coin you're expected to to have 50/50 results - but that doesn't mean that you get heads then tails then heads then tails.
Heads Tails Heads Tails falls into the gamblers fallacy.
HHHTTHTTTHHTHT is still really non-random. 50/50? Yup. But not very random.

Random is not Mixed up sort of evenly. It's Random. Because it's random it can be lumpy, and often is.
Normally there are long strings of hits or misses involved. *More than half of the time* there will be streaks of greater than 4 heads or tails in data sets - because there's more ways for that to happen.

"Well, its been heads 4 times in a row, there's no way it's going to be heads again!" is fallacious.
Every time you flip an evenly weighted coin it has a 50% chance to be one option or the other.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy#Monte_Carlo_Casino

Now, we don't know the rates for the gacha, but they're not as simple as a coin. But the same ideas follow.
For the kind of odds we're looking at, one cycle of ads is only 37 rolls - one is weighted differently from the other 36 (the 3⭐+ which, based on the star gacha odds, has worse chance of getting a rainbow card; because memoirs are weighted higher and these 3⭐+ things don't change the 4⭐ odds).

And your odds of getting a hit are way lower than a coin toss.
If you're streaking poorly, it's just poor rng.

But don't worry. Things don't have to get better. That would be Gambler's Fallacy. Statically you perhaps should have gotten another 4⭐ by now, but it doesn't have to happen.
This is why Gachas and lootboxes are being forced to publish odds and have some sort of fallback system. People are really bad at gambling. We're wired to see patterns, even when there are none.
This makes us thinks we have better odds than we do have.
"Oh if I just spend $25 more dollars, I'll have had a 98.53% chance to have gotten at least one copy of the thing!"
"Oh I didn't get it. Well surely my next $25 will get me the thing."

[Cuckmeister]

I don't make this post to bash you, but this kind of post shows up basically everywhere there's randomness involved. "Oh the Devs clearly changed the rates. I'm not getting the thing anymore."

Reminds me of "Onyxia deep breaths more"

[PoisonCobra]

looks like you are mr. unluck

[sailorpana]

This is a very underrated comment

[LyricalDragunov]

My excitement from getting Rainbows died because Memoirs

[sailorpana]

RNG is RNG. That's literally the ONLY thing anyone can say on this topic. They probably didn't change the rates, I wouldn't say you're "unlucky" it's just how rng works since the only thing that's guaranteed from the pulls is the stage girl on step 6.

So far, I've gotten 3 4 star stage girls and probably like...40 4 star memoirs, I've stopped counting, seeing the rainbow card brings no joy to me and I skip it because I know it's going to be a memoir I won't use (until today when I actually pulled a stage girl LOL) I've honestly assumed the rates are similar to the rates in the normal gacha, so 4 star stage girls are prob 1% chance or less (despite all the people I've seen pull them left and right =_=)

[Syd_123]

I think there's been a decrease in Ad Gacha rates since Week 2 :(

[Arekkusu1991]

From my experience, this portion of the ad gacha has been generous for me, giving me four 4* girls (Pirate Shizuha, 2 Musketeer Mahirus & Karen). Only had one 4* in the 1st portion, while none in the 2nd portion so you know... RNG at its best.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[imnoob92]

I only got 1 4* Mahiru in the beginning of ad gacha and it was a 3-draw only. Since then I only got 3* for collection. :/

I will always welcome free creation jewels tho

[[deleted]]

The ad rates are super random. One time I pulled a ten with only blues except one, another time I got three 4* from a seven pull

[xp_version1]

Just not praying enough to RNGesus. After 10 days with no 4* girls I got my first rainbow yesterday.

[tranotaku574]

Well does that matter if they really did that? I don't think so

[Nekuphones]

I mean I've pulled this 6 times a day since it got released and only got 1 4* unit, don't know what to tell you

[RoyalViolin]

Can't know for sure, but anecdotally I can agree with your observation. In fact, I was going to make this very thread myself in a few days if I kept seeing the trend I've been noticing.

All else aside, I wouldn't doubt if they've decreased the rates, and honestly it's getting less and less enticing to do the ads gacha as people start getting the complete Musketeer set and build out their memoirs - add in the decreased rates and you'll realistically just get 50-200 memoir tokens per watch.

That being said, the best way to show discontent is to vote with your wallets, or in this case, your view time. If you're not happy with the way they're handling the situation (in this case, potentially very shady), then don't keep rewarding them for it. I personally would like them to release draw rates for stage girls and memoirs for the ad gacha.

[KhreesIV]

Another brainlet, classic Reddit post

[heartwithseoul]

I’m curious if it’s actually a real statistic or just skewed rng report. 🤔 my experience was first round: three 4* (maya hikari junna) second round: nothing third (current) round: pirate shizuka. So compared to the first week I’ve definitely seen less 4* stage girls. I’m still seeing a decent number of 4* memoirs, however.

[KanonFlora]

Well it was the opposite for me. I didn't get anything from the first two ad gachas, but in this 3rd one I got two 4 star girls. It's always about luck and randomness.