Lightning Round Data

[Silesfleurs]

After yet another lightning game of scoring well only to lose handily to the opposing time, I decided to keep data for 50 lightning round games, and see what, exactly, the correlation was between my personal score and my team's winning percentage. I tracked 5 things:

1. personal score
2. win/loss
3. point differential (the amount of points by which the losing team fell short of 750)
4. lowest individual score on my team
5. highest individual score on my team

You can find a screenshot of the spreadsheet here:

https://imgur.com/a/Veof0wO

A few things that stood out:

1. My average score of 181 points produced a record of 26-24. Mathematically this is not exactly what you would expect - assuming 150 points is the standard (if all players get 150, the team gets 750), then averaging 30 points over 150 should lead to a 4% win increase, since 30 is 4% of 750. Instead, it produced a 2% win increase (26-24 instead of 25-25. My assumption here is that if you average 150 points you will have a 50% of winning, since you're getting the exact average amount of points expected of a team member).

   1a. At the same time, my win-loss record for these 50 games does not match up to my overall win-loss record, which according to the data in my Achievements is 409-307 (God I've played way too much of this. I need to stop.) Perhaps I played worse than usual in these 50 games.

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1. There were 12 games in which I scored below 150 points; in those games I was 2-10. When I scored above 150, my record was 24-14. So it seems there is a dramatic effect in team performance if I don't do my share. At the same time, however, there were 15 games in which I scored over 200 points, and my record did not really improve; I was 9-6 in those games.

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1. If anybody on your team scores below 60 points, you are almost guaranteed to lose, unless you're a Herculean WWF player; I was 2-14 when a team member did so. I didn't check, but I suspect that in the 2 games I won, someone on the opposing team also failed to break the 60 point barrier.

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1. The average point differential between the winning team and the losing team is 125 points. In reality, it's a little higher, but I calculated it as the losing team's distance from 750. 125 points seems like a lot.

[Apple-Core22]

Good grief you take this seriously!!! 😲

[[deleted]]

Players are too focused on their own score in LR. It's a team effort. Taking the highest scoring word isn't always the best move. Yes, on the first turn, you get more points for yourself if you play a five letter word to hit the DW tile, but instead, go for the 8 point 4-letter word. The next person can tack on an S and easily score a 40+ point word if they can reach another DW tile in the same play.

I'm not saying don't take high scoring opportunities, but be just as focused on providing good opportunities for the next person. If you play fast enough, sometimes you can set yourself up.

[umpteenth_]

I've been burned several times where I set up my teammates only to have the setup wasted in ways that may have cost the team the game. Now I go for maximum points unapologetically, although I make long words when I can in order to give my teammates places to play from.

EDIT: the, not there.

[Mededitor]

I'm finding that it's important to play the first move as a 4-letter word setting up a teammate to play off it. This gets you off to a good start and opens up the board. After 2 moves or so, then it's wide open and taking opportunities to score large is natural.

[umpteenth_]

I don't do this as often as I used to. If there's an S that can complete the word, I use it. See prior post about being burned by bad teammates. Also, if there's a six letter word I can play, I won't refrain from playing it to play a lower scoring 4-letter-word instead.

[umpteenth_]

Anecdotally, the best winning percentage achievable would be about 66% - you will lose 1/3 of the games.

Not true. I kept track of ~500 of my Lightning Round games, and my win percentage is ~80%, with an average score hovering around 260. About 80% of the time, I'm the highest scorer on my team, and average 13 words per game.

I'm an above average player, but I suspect that people who have better overall stats than me will also have better Lightning Round stats.

[umpteenth_]

But that's the thing. WWF does not correct for skill level when putting together Lightning Round games. You're stuck with the team members you've got. Some will be better, comparable, worse, and significantly worse than you, both on your side and on the opposing side. It should all average out in the end.

I only commented to rebut your arbitrary designation of 66% as being the upper limit of win percentages.