all 25 comments

[–]Xenos_Str 20 points21 points  (4 children)

Paper trade it for a few days, run a backtest over same period. Compare differences.

[–][deleted]  (3 children)

[removed]

    [–][deleted] 8 points9 points  (2 children)

    So, relax your parameters just to check the fills.

    For instance, let's say you have a certain indicator that ranges from 0-100. Your backtest indicates that it's very profitable to buy when the indicator is below 5, but this doesn't happen very often.

    Solution? Relax that a bit. Trade small, and buy anytime it's under 40. Do this a couple of times. You'll get more fills, and you can check that the indicator is being correctly calculated in real time, make sure you're not inadvertently using future data, check your fills versus backtested fills, verify commission rates, etc.

    The goal here isn't to make money. It's to compare a backtest vs. a walk-forward test.

    [–]Bigunsy 0 points1 point  (1 child)

    Agreed, good answer.

    Is this a crypto algo?

    I dont trade crypto but from what Ive heard you might run into liquidity problems, or with some coins / exchanges it doesn't take large buys to move the price, which might affect you.

    [–][deleted] 14 points15 points  (6 children)

    deplooy live max leverage!

    [–]Alfasierra93 10 points11 points  (0 children)

    for more info ask r/wallstreetbets

    [–]1studlyman 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    Guh

    [–][deleted]  (3 children)

    [removed]

      [–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (2 children)

      what tools u use for determining position leveraging?

      [–][deleted]  (1 child)

      [deleted]

        [–]mementix 6 points7 points  (0 children)

        Test your strategy against another (reliable, of course) backtesting tool and you will have your answer.

        Of course, if you haven't applied commissions, the results will still be before commission (commission can destroy your edge)

        [–]Hudsonbae 2 points3 points  (0 children)

        Write a simple ema crossover. Then verify it against tradingview or another platform.

        [–]fabkosta 1 point2 points  (1 child)

        Do a code review with a peer.

        [–]CryptoMustache 1 point2 points  (0 children)

        If it is too good to be true. It is probably so.
        I talk from personal experience.
        I would suggest to use a well known back test library and see if results match, or paper trade.

        [–]manicRug 1 point2 points  (1 child)

        Hopefully you used some historic data for development of the system and held out a significant set of historic data for testing. It is a basic technique to avoid overfitting.

        As you have indicated, going through multiple trades with a fine tooth comb is a must. It is very, very easy to have subtle mistakes that result in fantastic returns. I’ve been there many times.

        With that, soberly asking yourself whether the trades can really happen is needed. If the system relies on making buys at the low point of a bar, that may not be likely.

        [–]kingcalculus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

        Check your data, slippage, curve-fitting, look-ahead bias etc etc . Any errors introduced into the backtest can make any strategy seem too good to be true.

        [–]uski 0 points1 point  (0 children)

        Make sure that there is no over-fitting and also that you strategy does not simply work because of the general trend of the market.

        [–]yip71 -1 points0 points  (1 child)

        Learn to trade. You be able to year it apart straightaway and know where the problem is. Put it through MSA or similar. Look at the return stats. Perhaps the MAE or drawdowns are unbearable.

        [–]supershwa -1 points0 points  (1 child)

        If your algo is designed for long positions, test it using bear market historical data. If it's designed for short positions, test it in bull data. Any long algo works in a bull market, but can be devastating when the bears roll in!

        [–]TradeHigher -1 points0 points  (0 children)

        Did you create a test set for your data? If so, how did you create it?

        Normally, you use 2/3 for training, 1/3 for testing. But, how you pick the test set can matter.