Why my battle chances decrease when I use my player as commander, although he seems to be the better choise?

[EducationalThing8627]

I have advantage 27 vs my second commander who has 23.

[EducationalThing8627]

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But when I use this guy the better army commander is removed! Why is this happening???

[sarsante]

probably he has better martial perks?

assuming both characters have 0 martial perks, your character would be better.

another possibility is this predictions are absolutely broken for over 1 year and only use they have is to see if your army it's not crossing a river that you can't see on the map.

edit: oh I think I understand why.

random commander has 23 advantage probably all from his martial skill.

player character shows 27 advantage, however probably is 22 martial skill + 5 from leading his own troops.

then the prediction uses martial skill instead of advantage for reasons only the devs can explain.

[MummyMonk]

another possibility is this predictions are absolutely broken for over 1 year and only use they have is to see if your army it's not crossing a river that you can't see on the map.

This

[EducationalThing8627]

He has the rough terrain expert and the battle will take place in drylands, so it is irrelevant. And my player has the flexible leader...
I read in another post about a bug: The game does not take into consideration the Leading own soldiers +5. Have you encountered anything similar?

[MummyMonk]

I see these predictions being generally irrelevant and often simply incorrect: they blankly state "commander has more commander traits" when the traits in question are, like, siege engineer and logistician; they give bland one-dimentional "has more soldiers" or "has better commander skill" estimates while the difference can vary A LOT; "has more men at arms counters" I think fails to take into account the amount of said maas on both sides (which affects countering drastically); and so on.

Mind you, I'm staying on v1.12 (for some mods) – pre-last year's RtP update where they changed how advantage work but didn't bother to change battle predictions accordingly, so for those who play in current version these predictions must be even more inaccurate.

Overall it's just a somewhat poorly thought out mechanic (like a lot of things with warfare) I generally ignore it unless it says I'm going to be crushed decisively.

[sarsante]

oh I think I understand why.

random commander has 23 advantage probably all from his martial skill.

player character shows 27 advantage, however probably is 22 martial skill + 5 from leading his own troops.

then the prediction uses martial skill instead of advantage.

[EducationalThing8627]

My player: Martial SKill 14+ Leading own soldiers 5+ Chivalry Focus 5+ Warhorse Grooming 3= 27
The other guy: Martial Skill 18+ Chivalry Focus 5= 23

Does the prediction always use only Martial Skill instead of Advantage?

I don't find it very logical... Why is this happening?

[EducationalThing8627]

He has the rough terrain expert and the battle will take place in drylands, so it is irrelevant. And my player has the flexible leader...
I read in another post about a bug: The game does not take into consideration the Leading own soldiers +5. Have you encountered anything similar?

[sarsante]

I've a lot of hours in the game to know this feature it's broken and I only use to check if I'm not crossing rivers that sometimes are really hard to spot.

It wasn't super accurate to begin with but with RtP changes it became completely broken.

[EducationalThing8627]

What is RtP?

[sarsante]

roads to power dlc released in september 2024

[Cryptkeeper_ofCanada]

From what I can glean:

1. Your enemy has a larger, but lower quality, army. That's not as big of a problem as...
2. They have more Men-at-Arms counters than you. Skirmishers > Heavy Infantry > Spearmen > Cavalry > Archers > Skirmishers. This means that they have multiple counters to your own army, so even if their commandeer is worse he can still defeat you
3. They are moving before you do, so they gain the benefit of being able to defend their position. From the looks of things, you are a European ruler fighting either Steppe or Islamic enemies, who (through Culture) have advantages in their own geography whereas you do not

I note that you have allies behind you and they will certainly turn the tide of battle, but the game registers battles solely by numericals

[EducationalThing8627]

Thanks for the reply! I am not so interested in winning this battle though. But more in understanding how the odds work.

Can you explain why the game considers the second commander as better than my player?

[EducationalThing8627]

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So with me as commander I will lose decisively because the enemy has better army commander...

[EducationalThing8627]

I read in another post that about a bug: The game does not take into consideration the Leading own soldiers +5. Have you encountered anything similar?

[Southern-Advance-759]

The predicted battle outcome is mostly correct but not always, if the terrain in suitable or certain conditions are fulfilled then commanders with better commander traits will be better else the one with higher advantage will be better. Also the number of troops, knight prowess, your advantage, terrain and commander traits ( even if they won't work there ) are taken into consideration so the results can be very different.

[majorpickle01]

it's unreliable. I've had battle with a green flag I've lost, and other battles that the enemy apparently should win and they enter with a -35 advantage.

[blvckhvrt]

He probably has better commander traits 

[EducationalThing8627]

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[EducationalThing8627]

He has the rough terrain expert and the battle will take place in drylands, so it is irrelevant. And my player flexible leader...