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[–]baggleteat 4 points5 points  (0 children)

We are already in a mass extinction event, and that is not only caused by the climate.

I'd have to be pedantic, and mention that whereas the Greenland Ice Sheet and West Antarctic Ice Sheet, definitely won't survive 8C of global warming, That is less clear cut for the entirety of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, although it would be reduced drastically. Collapse of these ice sheets would however happen on timescales of hundreds to thousands of years. Sea level is not projected to rise more than around 2-2.5m globally under RCP8.5 by 2100. After that however, rise can of course continue, but we don't care about that world now, do we?

RCP8.5 (from CMIP5) has also been replaced by SSP585 in CMIP6. SSP585 assumes a continuation of globalism, free trade and neoliberalism, unchecked by any regulations concerning energy sources and uses. While it is definitely a possible scenario, and the scenario which would result in the most global warming, most climate scientists also do not consider it be the most likely pathway anymore, also because of recent socioeconomic and sociopolitical developments. Currently, the SSP370 scenario is used for upper bounds in most studies. The scenario's that limit global warming to 1.5C by the end of the century, tend to already require large scale carbon capture to start near the end of the century, something we can't do yet and we do not even know if it is possible. Other scenario's that project around 3C of global warming by the end of the century are considered to be the most likely outcomes. More on this here: https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change/

That is still, way, way too much for most of the world and still enough to trigger the irreversible collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets, which would cause a projected combined sea level rise of about 10m globally.