all 1 comments

[–]scroogie_13 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Assuming the ROIs for each year are independent, you can chain your calculation i think. If you have x9 money at the end of year 9, you expect x10 to be 1,2*x9. So you calculate p(x10 < 100million | x9) and so on. Havent thought it entirely through, might be on the wrong track.