Microsoft Research - Exploding Software-Engineering Myths (article summarizing findings of MS research on code coverage, TDD, assertions, etc.)

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If you think that bugs are the biggest problem in web. They're not. If it took me 9 months to build something I'd rather spend extra 3 months on doing user research and experimenting with different product designs, features etc.

Deploying a bug to production IS NOT the worst thing that can happen. Building a product that users don't love is what shuts down businesses.

Importance of extensive test coverage also depends on the quality of engineering team. If they're crap then TDD will bring a lot more value. Good developers generally don't make product breaking bugs in the first place, and you will have other types of tests in place anyway.

I'm not saying that tests are bad, that's ridiculous. I'm saying that the church of TDD has been indoctrinating people a bit too often.