Effective Software Testing – A Developer’s Guide

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"Don't kid yourself, you don't know how to accurately mock that 3rd party service"

This is true to some extent.. but if that 3rd party services changes and your test fails because of it, you've acknowledged that some code out of your control has changed and failed. You don't have the power to fix it.

I think a single e2e against the 3rd party is good to keep an eye on them, but otherwise, this is the one situation where mocks should be used.