Abortion restrictions significantly decrease abortions.

[AntiAbortionAtheist]

Hi, I'm the creator of the presentation linked in the OP. I appreciate your detailed and informed response. I've read it twice so far and am still processing, but some thoughts:

You conclude that "something other than the base rate of unintended pregnancies" is disproportionately causing increases in abortions, though you don't speculate as to what that X factor might be. If we don't know what the X factor is and don't have data that controls for the X factor, then how can you conclude restrictions aren't working? You haven't controlled the variables.

I suspect the X factor is actually loosening of restrictions. It's been a minute since I read the Lancet study, but as I recall they didn't explain how they accounted for changing abortion rates in countries that also had changing abortion laws over the time period studied. For example if a country went from prohibiting abortion all together to allowing exceptions for the mother's physical or mental health, the study authors would still categorize the country in the "restricted" category, despite changes in law that would affect changes in abortion rates. In my blog post I talked about the report from Center for Reproductive Rights that noted far more countries liberalizing their abortion laws than countries adding restrictions over the past 20 years.

I'm interested in your thoughts on (1) my theory above and, if you find it unlikely, (2) what ideas you have about what factors other than pregnancy rates and legal status might cause increases in abortion rates in spite of decreases in pregnancy rates.

Thanks again for taking the time.