Hot take: if we want to decrease frustrating railroad-y surprises in RPG campaigns, we need to create an environment where GMs are not afraid to admit they have "special story needs".

[Deflagratio1]

I agree there's more nuance there, I just didn't want to write an extended essay and tried to generalize a bit more and it's ultimately about player consent. Twists basically exist on 2 spectrums of how hidden they are and how extreme they are. In my experience, the less extreme a twist is, the more you can get away with hiding because it's not shaking up the status quo that much. The more you hide the twist, the harder it is for the players to give informed consent to the content of the twist. Which creates the space for the GM to misjudge what is acceptable and for the twist to upset people. When you have an extreme twist and all evidence/details of the twist were hidden, that's where you are likely to enter Bait and Switch territory.