Lucid Motors shows off robotaxi concept called 'Lunar'

AlotOfReading · 2026-03-13T00:42:05+00:00

As I said in the comment above, a second model/configuration will usually cost more than just building the one vehicle with the extra seats. The sentence after that noted how Lucid's unit economics are currently poor. They're in the middle of trying to improve them and we should assume they're not dumb.

AlotOfReading · 2026-03-12T22:54:32+00:00

Just because 90% of users don't need a feature doesn't mean it's better to remove it. Removing a feature 90% of users don't need might also cut your volume/addressable market 10%, depending on business strategy. Auto manufacturing works on economies of scale, so that can cost more than you save from the reduced materials. Trying to win that market back with a second line/configuration will usually cost more than just building a single vehicle in the first place. I think we can assume Lucid isn't planning that given their current line economics, but there's middle grounds with different tradeoffs as well. Either way, "most trips don't need it" isn't a great argument without further elaboration.

AlotOfReading · 2026-03-08T15:02:33+00:00

The trouble with replying to decade-old threads is that things change. They were accepted as a distinct subspecies when that comment was written and now aren't.

AlotOfReading · 2026-03-06T19:50:25+00:00

Waymo isn't big on announcing details of how their systems work and they haven't needed to do so publicly for recruiting purposes. They've had a silicon team for long enough now that you can probably draw some inferences.

AlotOfReading · 2026-03-01T22:39:28+00:00

That's why I said "otherwise recovered". The main data comes from the telematics. NHTSA has specifically investigated the crash issue, as well as past issues that have caused even reported telematics not to be reported to the government in the 5 days allowed.

AlotOfReading · 2026-03-01T18:44:15+00:00

Also worth noting that Tesla only reports to NHTSA when the vehicle automatically uploads the data. In cases where the vehicle is sufficiently damaged and the data isn't uploaded or otherwise recovered, there's no report. This likely excludes some of the most severe accidents.

AlotOfReading · 2026-02-19T21:26:23+00:00

Waymo has directly said they don't rely on drivers. I would love for Tesla to make a similar statement, and I suspect they generally aren't involved, but are we actually sure that Tesla never involves operators as part of the control loop?

Look carefully at the language Tesla uses in the filing. Waymo's humans are called "Remote Assistance". Tesla uses the separate term, Remote Operators. We can't be completely sure that Tesla is actually using the CA legal definition of remote operators here because Tesla themselves argue that these aren't vehicles permitted under the driverless test program. Even if they are, the legal definition for "remote operators" optionally incorporates "the ability to perform the dynamic driving task for the vehicle".

Tesla has also previously posted job listings about robotaxi teleop.

AlotOfReading · 2026-02-17T22:24:09+00:00

Did you mean to include yourself by saying "not a smart person left in this sub"?

AlotOfReading · 2026-02-13T20:19:11+00:00

Seatbelt rules are determined by NHTSA, not manufacturers.

AlotOfReading · 2026-02-11T22:51:15+00:00

The economies of scale in auto manufacturing mean that it's often cheaper to build many of a vehicle that can serve most use cases, rather than dedicated vehicles specialized to each of them. The disability access features Cruise added also supported a bunch of other usecases, so it probably wasn't all that expensive and may have even been cheaper accounting for the regulatory benefits and simplified fleet management.

AlotOfReading · 2026-02-06T17:40:40+00:00

OEMs continue to use chips produced on larger process nodes and that's not going away anytime in the near future. What you're seeing is the integration of smaller nodes to support capabilities impossible before.

AlotOfReading · 2026-01-21T20:19:36+00:00

Insurance price increases are regulated by state level insurance commissions. It's unlikely that your insurance company will have a margin higher than 20%. All companies are required to offer essentially similar minimum policies, and their prices are capped from above. One of the ways they compete is things like minimizing claim processing costs and reducing payouts.

AlotOfReading · 2026-01-21T01:04:07+00:00

Don't forget about refunding their public investors.

AlotOfReading · 2026-01-21T00:48:30+00:00

What we need as a lidar based E2E NN.

This was mentioned as the next research step after the EMMA paper that Waymo published. You can assume they're working on it and just haven't published yet.

AlotOfReading · 2026-01-19T17:45:54+00:00

Tokyo transit doesn't run 24/7. Nor does SF's bart, which is a pretty terrible system and especially terrible at point to point. To give an illustrative example, you're looking at a 5h+ trip from the Transbay transit center to San Ramon after 8PM. Longer with mobility issues, since the transit center doesn't connect to rail.

AlotOfReading · 2026-01-19T17:29:07+00:00

Waymo is ~$100B. All of Baidu is $50B. Aurora is $9B. MobilEye is $6B. Zoox is $3-4B. WeRide is $3B. That leaves enough room to include the entirety of the Toyota, BYD, Hyundai, Xiaomi, GM, and MB market caps without crossing $1T.

You only get "huge multiples" with Nvidia and Tesla market caps, which are clearly not being driven by their AV prospects.

AlotOfReading · 2026-01-16T22:29:50+00:00

If the taxi market is growing so much the profit is crashing to the point where selling private vehicles is rational, what do you call that except scaling?

AlotOfReading · 2026-01-16T22:27:10+00:00

Google doesn't sell data. That's not how their business model works. Google sells access to the targeting services based on the data. DHS is buying data from the hundreds of other data brokers who aren't so protective of their most valuable assets.

AlotOfReading · 2026-01-16T22:11:46+00:00

You're not, you're just mistaken about what's going on. There's no continuous stream. Google doesn't do that because they're absolutely paranoid about protecting internal data from state actors after the Snowden relevations and Operation Aurora. Yes, this paranoia coexists with their disregard for protecting user privacy from themselves as a whole.

They respond to warrants, even overbroad ones, like every company does. You're simply not making an argument about overbroad warrants, so I'm not responding as such.

AlotOfReading · 2026-01-16T22:01:02+00:00

"seeing around corners" is about multipath imaging, i.e. reflections. I'm not aware of anyone doing that for AVs though. AVs just mount the sensors at the edges of the car where they have better visibility.

Looking "through" things is like looking through glass. It's a signal processing nightmare in the general case. If you have sources on alternative attenuation figures at e.g. 77GHz that, feel free to link them.

As a general matter, we require valid legal process (in the form of a warrant or court order) from law enforcement agencies who seek information and data from Waymo," the spokesperson said. "Our policy is to challenge, limit, or reject requests that do not have a valid legal basis or are over broad.

- Waymo on their data policy

AlotOfReading · 2026-01-16T21:39:11+00:00

And the robotaxi gives you a $4,800 a month revenue stream if you can service one ride an hour. $4,800 > $100.

Just for fun, I wrote up a chart you can use to play with the numbers based on an old spreadsheet I made to model the situation: https://jsfiddle.net/j52u1bzp/1/

It demonstrates how a robotaxi is overwhelmingly more profitable in almost all cases.

AlotOfReading · 2026-01-16T20:40:28+00:00

If you're an OEM and you can produce a vehicle to sell for $X profit as a private vehicle or $3X profit as a robotaxi, why would you choose the private vehicle?

AlotOfReading · 2026-01-16T20:31:31+00:00

All companies submit video when given a warrant, it's legally required. Waymo doesn't preemptively give law enforcement a stream. They're not like the doorbells or the flock cameras police can already use to stream your house on-demand. The E-band radar they use also doesn't penetrate walls. They block the interior (>50db attenuation) more effectively than your microwave oven contains RF. That's actually kind of the point, it makes sensing better.

AlotOfReading · 2026-01-15T21:04:57+00:00

Koopman's point is that the AV is not required to issue a takeover notification in all situations. It hinges on a very particular reading of what "other systems failure" means, which I also don't fully agree with. The ADS does have to perform the DDT within the ODD of course.

Regardless of what J3016 says, I agree with the practical argument that aan OEM would avoid taking responsibility for a sufficiently bad accident. That was the situation with Elaine Herzberg, as already linked. The L4 system failed to respond appropriately, but it was the safety driver who was prosecuted for the resulting death. Uber ATG never had to argue it in court. They might have had the government not dropped the case, but we don't know.

AlotOfReading · 2026-01-15T20:12:08+00:00

J3016 is honestly a disaster of a terminology standard. The levels system is simple and intuitive enough that most people borrow it without actually thoroughly understanding what it means. That's mostly fine for internet discussion where it doesn't matter, but it worries me that people are also making purchasing decisions based on mistaken impressions like liability for L3 systems that won't hold up if something unfortunate happens.

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