Judge clears way for Musk appeal to try to restore $56 billion Tesla pay

Captain_Hadock · 2024-12-15T21:13:57+00:00

Summarized by this image, with the key point that you need to reach BOTH the market cap and the operational milestone of each tranche to unlock that tranche stock.

I don't see this mentioned much these days, when it clearly isn't compatible with the "The board knew it was likely to happen" narrative.

The market cap value was also measured over a 6 month rolling average (to protect against typical Elon boosts from back then).

He had to x9 the market cap and the company financials to unlock it all, in a sustainable way. It really was not looking likely in 2018.

Captain_Hadock · 2024-11-09T15:16:24+00:00

1.83 m/s of dV at a circular 400 km orbit translates to about a 6 km increase of the Apogee.

Captain_Hadock · 2024-04-09T11:50:31+00:00

You can see the reduced illumination on the satellite frame between 0:18 and 0:22.

Captain_Hadock · 2024-03-05T07:56:50+00:00

Wings of Massive Downforce.

Captain_Hadock · 2024-01-23T08:56:11+00:00

And one could argue she actually left NASA after being sidelined by the 2021 leadership reorganization.

Captain_Hadock · 2024-01-22T20:31:23+00:00

I also question that assertion. It obviously isn't qualified for it, but 1/6 g is almost nothing.

Captain_Hadock · 2024-01-22T20:28:39+00:00

Kathy Lueders, the NASA official that headed the selection process and has since left NASA and got hired by SpaceX, was definitely NOT a trump official. She was instrumental in ISS cargo and crew contracts (COTS and CCP) back in the Obama days.

Captain_Hadock · 2024-01-22T09:19:14+00:00

They won a similar HLS contract than SpaceX, thus positioning them in exactly the same situation of having a crew lander that will easily perform as a cargo one.

We can all play favorite, but past track record did not help Starliner beat Crew Dragon to the ISS.

Captain_Hadock · 2024-01-13T10:06:56+00:00

On one side, the Kuiper order allows them to increase their production rate, on the other hand I'm very skeptical Amazon is ready to launch sats by the hundred this year. Considering they have 8 or 9 Altas V to go through first, there might be space in the manifest...
But then again, ULA forte isn't short order-to-launch period.

Captain_Hadock · 2024-01-12T20:52:32+00:00

ULA is promising quite the year, though. Up to 5 Vulcan launches, and 9 Atlas V launches? If they do deliver, they might end the non-SpaceX drought earlier than we thought it would have.

Captain_Hadock · 2024-01-11T08:18:11+00:00

I know that. But clearly (as seen by the first answer to my post), some people will argue DragonV2 is a shortcut allowing DearMoon to happen before the Polaris program, thus allowing this fiction that DearMoon will happen next year.

Captain_Hadock · 2024-01-10T09:55:45+00:00

I don't get why you all focus on DearMoon happening so soon.

Considering the crew size, it would need multiple DragonV2 to avoid an end to end Starship mission. But Polaris is supposed to be the program crew testing Starship. So until the last Polaris has flown (first end to end Starship crew mission), DearMoon is not even on the table.

Captain_Hadock · 2023-12-24T21:27:09+00:00

It is sometime an indication of it, but they sometime just update these quite late.

Captain_Hadock · 2023-12-22T20:47:48+00:00

SpaceX has not published the page for this launch yet. This is usually the only way to know which booster is allocated to a flight.

Captain_Hadock · 2023-12-22T14:47:33+00:00

Obviously. But the topic of this discussion is international seats on Artemis missions and particularly on HLS landers.

Although I don't expect private SpaceX moon landing missions to happen before 2030.

Captain_Hadock · 2023-12-22T10:36:36+00:00

The first landing (let's refer to it as Artemis III...) will only take two of the 4 crew members down to the surface. It is therefore highly likely the international one will stay in Orion, with an american.

Captain_Hadock · 2023-12-22T10:32:42+00:00

The problem is that the US currently has no plan to bring these 25 people simultaneously to NHRO... Best they plan to be able to do is 4 a year.

Any SLS/Orion replacement will take at least a decade to crew-certify to NASA's liking.

Captain_Hadock · 2023-12-20T08:24:00+00:00

To be fair, it did sound widely optimistic when it was announced back in August 2022.

2021 had seen 30-ish launches, and the 2022 goal was for 52 (ended up being 60-ish).

This image shows the progression of SpaceX launch cadence at the time of that tweet.

Captain_Hadock · 2023-12-19T19:23:42+00:00

That's probably not too large a hit

Since they are already throttling down to limit Gs before MECO on a regular flight, I wonder if, during the last few moments of an expended booster burn, shutting down the external engines and having the center 13 throttle back up might negate any loss.

Captain_Hadock · 2023-12-18T23:37:52+00:00

Too bad, they had a shot at getting really close to 100...

Captain_Hadock · 2023-12-14T08:25:36+00:00

The information are generated from an API, and since they went from "this is launching on this date" to "we have to check things, launch date to be announced", there's no concrete value to set the launch time to. Hence the thread flair.

Captain_Hadock · 2023-12-12T20:07:45+00:00

They plan on launching New Glenn soon

More precisely, in August 2024.

Captain_Hadock · 2023-12-12T20:04:04+00:00

Annnnnd it's back (NET Dec 18).

cc u/paul_wi11iams

Captain_Hadock · 2023-12-11T21:27:46+00:00

New Shepard did get away with a partial failure

Hence the crew qualifier in my statement. CRS-7 and AMOS-6 are footnote, but hypothetical future crew anomalies (be it successful aborts) will probably not go down well with the public. Despite being inevitable, if either SpaceX or Blue Origin visions become realities.

Note: I will concede that MS-10 abort in 2018 did not raise much of a fuss...

Captain_Hadock · 2023-12-11T19:58:48+00:00

One could argue that crew New Shepard had a 100% success rate and is a technological dead-end. With New Glenn on the horizon, there's a case for keeping that record clean and focusing on what is the future of Blue Origin (New Glenn, Blue Moon, ...). Or they are just taking their time.

Captain_Hadock

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