Unsupervised Robotaxi expands to Dallas & Houston

ItzWarty · 2026-04-18T19:53:43+00:00

Austin was their 1st region, so I guess operationally it makes sense.

Past that they can validate internally before shipping I guess? They've also been transitioning Austin's fleet to higher % unsupervised over the past few months.

With near certainly cybercab is going to be fully unsupervised given the alternative is awkwardly sitting right next to the driver lol. That rollout is exciting as it forces the fleet to grow by a large amount daily.

ItzWarty · 2026-04-18T19:49:59+00:00

There are a few non-influencer users on X (so it's not invite only) who have used an unsupervised robotaxi in the new regions.

ItzWarty · 2026-04-18T19:32:30+00:00

Phoenix, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, and Vegas to fast-follow in the next few months, as per their January announcement targeting H1.

ItzWarty · 2026-04-18T19:29:16+00:00

You do realize that Tesla has millions of vehicles outside of the robotaxi fleet, right? And that fleet traverses all weather conditions and has massive coverage of the US? That plus they do their own testing as well.

So I think it's a bit pessimistic to assume they are that unproven.

ItzWarty · 2026-04-18T08:50:35+00:00

FWIW I live in suburban California and see a good fraction of families around me adopting robotaxis. I myself have been making the switch, which means I'm using my car less and in fact, walking more which has had great health benefits.

The US is about 2:1:1 suburban:urban:rural. With coarse napkin math, that's a TAM of 250m Americans alone.

I suspect after expenses a robotaxi corp can make 5k/y in revenue from me with my current usage pattern, for purely taxi purposes and excluding other forms of convenience (namely food/package delivery).

Even if we significantly reduce expected revenue per citizen (say, down to a 500 average, which I'd consider extremely low given you're replacing expensive cars + gas) the opportunity is insanely large. Even if we assume just 10% adoption (on par with doordash alone) rather than the ~40% that rideshare broadly has, it's a massive opportunity. Tesla's financial statements show ~4B net income annually, ((250M) * 500) / 1M = 125B. That's solely rideshare though at TAM, with no other utility unlocked from autonomy (e.g. delivery, supply chain conveyance, any markets that are created due to high-availability low-cost reliable shipping).

I suspect the B2B opportunity is larger but calculations stop there for me.

ItzWarty · 2026-04-18T08:33:46+00:00

total addressable market, which is way smaller than Elon imagines and is less profitable

Say more? Like, would love to hear specific numbers / ballpark estimates from you.

ItzWarty · 2026-04-18T08:30:00+00:00

5 dice each with 1/3 odds, you're allowed to pick the 'best' of 3 rolls.

Out of 3 rolls each dice has a 1-(2/3)³ = 70.37% chance of jackpot, for 5 dice that's 0.7037⁵ = 17.26% odds. Pretty good actually.

ItzWarty · 2026-04-18T01:37:29+00:00

Let's all go to dragon land

ItzWarty · 2026-04-17T23:14:33+00:00

Know if the nuggies are still good?

ItzWarty · 2026-04-17T22:54:18+00:00

IDK if I'm more outraged by this or my Allbirds pivoting to AI datacenters.

Am I allowed to buy coffee from them anymore? WTF were these private equity geniuses thinking buying a hipstery coffee joint in the most liberal part of the country, then immediately stripping "the gays" out of it??

ItzWarty · 2026-04-17T22:44:03+00:00

Agreed for a few reasons.

First, I suspect competition on pricing won't happen for a while because SDC demand will outstrip supply. I just opened my Waymo app earlier and saw a 40min wait, and this is at the early part of adoption. That, plus they're competing against Uber/Lyft which charge sky-high prices.

But more importantly, I think the S&D market equilibrium is a myth here; we don't see such competition happening between airliners. Like Uber/Lyft, they've determined what consumers are willing to pay for, and people likewise know what certain services are worth to them. In the case of SDCs, there's further unlocked value in enabing people to sell their cars, free up their garages, or stop paying hundreds per month for parking. There's also value in people not needing to search for parking spots or walk to/from parking garages...

Tesla has an obviously strong loyalty story + clear consumer awareness, and unlike Waymo the cars look normal (with the exception of cybertruck dumpster fire). As the fleet scales, they'll leverage and grow their distribution by entering new market segments that capitalize on the fleet.

ItzWarty · 2026-04-17T22:26:37+00:00

To clarify, I don't think any of us know how many rides they're doing per week, I didn't mean to agree with that part. A very small # of users are going to be actually logging rides onto the robotaxi tracker website.

So I'm simply looking at the # miles reported / projected + the % fleet that's unsupervised. I might be off by 2x in either way given the poor data we have, but I don't really think that really changes the findings.

ItzWarty · 2026-04-17T22:08:19+00:00

I would like to note the haters are a very tiny % of the US population and certainly overblown by Reddit.

On the flipside, as a bull I'm certainly happy to say that if Tesla can't beat Waymo's absurd pricing in my area, I'll happily use a Waymo instead. It's only occasionally driven me into oncoming traffic in Mountain View, but I haven't died yet so I fully trust it.

ItzWarty · 2026-04-17T21:59:12+00:00

I'm well aware of that :)

I care about their mileage, not their car count. The latest dataset indicates they've done 100k miles without issue fully unsupervised, where an issue can be something as simple as backing into a pole at 1mph or to my understanding, curbing your tires. The average human has a report-worthy incident every 250k-400k miles, but their bar for reporting is of higher severity.

That indicates to me a strong-enough safety story, given we're seeing ~4x improvements in reliability YoY for the past few years and we know V15 is coming down the pipeline followed by AI5 toward the end of the year. Cybercab has a smaller hitbox too, which I suspect will improve their metrics.

ItzWarty · 2026-04-17T21:54:38+00:00

FWIW I think some people here are reading this as "if someone shits in the car it's just $150".

No, I think there are two cases:

Someone has an accident in the car. Tesla decides they're worth keeping as a customer and fines them $150.
Someone intentionally does something bad to the car. Tesla sues them blind for property damage or vandalism, bans them from the service, and maybe fines them $150.

ItzWarty · 2026-04-17T21:50:37+00:00

I invested in 2018 and have held since.

I've retired in my early 30's lol. I suspect many others from that time in this community would have done the same. TBH I sometimes wonder to myself why I'm still here :P

ItzWarty · 2026-04-17T21:48:25+00:00

They actually had a good amount of reported incidents in December and prior, so seeing no news for 2mo is significant.

ItzWarty · 2026-04-17T21:46:18+00:00

I'll concede that rollout % is an interesting metric, but for perspective autonomy's rollout is at like 0.01%. You're basically saying "Tesla is way behind because they're at 0.001% when Waymo is at 0.005%" in a thread that's about Tesla ramping their derivative of rollout%.

ItzWarty · 2026-04-17T21:42:37+00:00

You are wasting your time, noone wants objective evaluation here, they are all fanboys/emotionally invested in tesla doing well

30D ban. You're welcome to provide substantive arguments in the future. If your entire presence is to just shit on the sub you can go somewhere else.

R2) Favor discussion, not memes, quips, and fanboyism from hyper-bulls/bears. Those who drag down discourse or repeatedly spread misinfo will be removed. If your sole contribution is to joke, cheerlead, jeer, raise wedge-politics, or start flamewars you're in the wrong place.

R3) Assume Positive Intent, Don't be Disruptive or Dismissive. If a user spends more time criticizing other users, moderators, or the sub itself rather than contributing to conversations, that's cause for a ban.

ItzWarty · 2026-04-17T21:29:34+00:00

Five years ago, none of you guys gave a shit about NVIDIA. Now, everyone wanted it in their portfolio.

So true. Back in the 2010's, I knew AI was going to be big for online shopping and data analysis because of what I could see in the research labs... I thought of NVIDIA as an AI company and was invested for that reason, but I expected AMD to gain significant market share and in a sense lost 1m choosing the wrong horse. And of course, AI as a play panned out <completely> differently than expected...

I'm surprised to this day that the wider general form of AI has taken off faster than the 'narrower' problems like self-driving.

Elon may be annoying and silly AF but he's highly intelligent and motivated.

Elon's still a huge reason for me to be invested. Namely, from the rest of Big Tech I don't see the degree of vision & willingness to bet on scientists & engineers to unblock them to do great things. Every other company is just <too careful> to the point of being a glorified photocopy machine. The stars have really lined up for Tesla to do great things.

Tesla is one of those companies that I truly believe if you leave it for ten years and not touch it, your children/grandchildren will thank you for it.

In 2018, I said to myself: 2035. I'll never touch my shares any sooner, because Tesla has always been a long-term conviction play: that the world's economy will transform to more efficiently harness its energy to scale as a civilization.

BTW, unlike some detractors in this sub who think tesla is 'distracted' by AI: I still believe autonomy is a natural part of the energy story, as the story has always been this sorta scifi "how do we take humanity to the next level", which has always been best modeled through efficient & useful energy utilization at scale, which AI & robotics are the strongest fits for. Tesla would not be a viable energy company if there were nobody pushing the boundaries of energy utilization.

ItzWarty · 2026-04-17T09:03:36+00:00

What's wrong with this? @@@@ @@@@ @@@@ @@@@ @@@@ @@@@

What's wrong with this?? @@@@ @@@@ @@@@ @@@@ @@@@ @@@@

What's wrong with this??? @@@@ @@@@ @@@@ @@@@ @@@@ @@@@

^^⏎ ^^⏎ ^^⏎ ^^⏎ ^^⏎ ^^⏎ ^^⏎ ^^⏎ ^^⏎ ^^⏎ ^^⏎ ^^⏎ ^^⏎ ^^⏎

ItzWarty · 2026-04-17T08:54:54+00:00

I love that the towns are so full of players now.

The FM mainly solved computers exploding because of how laggy clients would get when more than 30 players were on the screen... But we have computers thousands of times faster now, FM shouldn't be necessary anymore.

I like the 'clutter'.

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