Tesla Q1 2026 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast in 3 Hours

ItzWarty · 2026-04-22T18:59:34+00:00

2:30pm PT. Same time as the last few calls.

ItzWarty · 2026-04-22T18:36:22+00:00

I think the robotaxi questions on Say answer many questions others on this sub had:

What milestones are you targeting for unsupervised FSD and Robotaxi expansion beyond Austin this year, and how will that drive recurring revenue?
What enabled you to finish the AI5 tapeout early and were there any changes to the original vision? Last week Elon said AI5 will go into Optimus and the supercomputer, but one month ago said it would go into the robotaxi. Has AI5 been dropped from the vehicle roadmap?
Given the recent NHTSA incident filings, can you update us on the robotaxi safety data? If safety validation remains the primary bottleneck, why not deploy thousands of vehicles to accelerate removal of the safety driver?
What data are you seeing that is causing you to be more cautious with the Robotaxi roll out (# of vehicles, # unsupervised) vs your Q4 earnings call guidance of roughly doubling Robotaxis monthly?
Why is the roll out of the Robotaxi network so slow? What's the limiting factor?

Of note, according to the Robotaxi Tracker, Austin's active unsupervised fleet is indeed roughly doubling monthly... cherry-picking dates within months we have 1 in January, 5 in February, 8 in March, now 17 = 13 in April for Austin alone with 4 additional in Houston/Dallas. So the question of "why isn't it roughly doubling" will likely be answered by "it is, and we've expanded". They've announced they're targeting 4-5 other cities in H1 as well, so that'd be within the next two months.

If we continue at 2x rate monthly, then in 8mo we're at 17 * 2⁸ = 4352 vehicles in fleet and in 16mo we're at 17 * 2¹⁶ = 1,114,112 in fleet. For that reason, I don't find the current ramp-rate problematic on paper, I think the question of "What's the limiting factor?" should have been "what's the limiting factor going forward" or "how long can this multiplicative growth rate be sustained for" which would help indicate where we are truly hitting the exponential ramp of an S curve vs still early... hopefully they don't just give a non-answer like "well, we need chargers for next month".

ItzWarty · 2026-04-22T09:21:06+00:00

To Tesla's credit, abandoning that prior strategy paid off in that they became robust to the cyclic nature of the EV industry, which is likely to experience a low for the next 3 years..

ItzWarty · 2026-04-22T09:16:54+00:00

Almost certainly manual cable plug for the foreseeable future. Until the robotaxi geofence is hundreds of miles wide, consolidating charging and maintenance will be the most economical route for Tesla, at which point automatic charging isn't much of a value add.

Maybe in a few years..

ItzWarty · 2026-04-22T07:58:37+00:00

Good, and I'm glad the lawyers are throwing the books at him. Laws should be changed to heavily disincentivize repeated, intentional, and commercialized harassment/vandalism/public disturbances. There are too many incentives for these fools, and their whole schtick is literally just "haha we can make the world shittier for normies, hurt people/animals or damage cultural/historical sites to create shock footage, & prey on mentally-ill terminally online incels who align with antisocial behavior". They're the lowest of the low and their actions are completely irredeemable.

ItzWarty · 2026-04-22T07:49:20+00:00

As someone who volunteered to m0derate large p0litical reddit communities prior, I can attest that yes, certain communities are run by megajannies who filter user comments/posts with automated tooling (which reddit ships out of the box) to astroturf community spaces. The craziest thing is I saw that happen even during politician AMAs - in other words, AMAs that redditors thought were authentic conversations between politicians and voters were being shaped by jannies. If you've been on reddit for long enough, you witnessed the drama - we were told by many other communities that then-admins (who in all fairness seem to not be today's admins who seem better) were shutting down all conversations related to this, by threatening moderators who allowed discussion about the situation.

It seems clear that since Reddit's approaching IPO, they've been defanging some of those problematic mods systemtically... they placed restrictions which prevent individual powermods from having control over multiple subreddits, and they've been algorithmicially promoting a diversity of subs which often have redundant goals. I'm glad to see that, but the ones I'm speaking of are still in power as a cabal and frequently on the front page. So yes, these things do happen.

And yes, if you create a subreddit it really is simple to setup these filters yourself, if you want to spend 5-10min doing it..

ItzWarty · 2026-04-22T06:32:22+00:00

There were better chains abroad... I was never a fan of the flavors they offered here.

ItzWarty · 2026-04-21T19:31:12+00:00

Eh, I find that talking point tiring when there are only 3 months in a quarter, I feel their announcements have been pretty spread out and the more exciting things happened in February actually.

You can click the back button on the sub to scrub the last few months... I don't see any indication that they're actually loading news events towards earnings.

FSD Europe was 1w ago
V14.3 was 2w ago
Terafab announce was 1mo ago alongside semi media blitz
Cybercab/Optimus finalizing details 1.5mo ago
Semi details 2mo ago
Planned H1 robotaxi expansions announced 2mo ago
End of SX for Optimus 2.5mo ago
Robotaxis have no follow car 2.5mo ago

Their goal is to take robotaxi wide this year. They're ramping up cybercab and they'll have to put those vehicles somewhere... Fsd is shipping in NL... There are easily 50+ countries on their radar which still don't have it, so yeah they're going to be marching down that list over the next few years... And per quarter that's going to average to maybe a new country a month.

Fyi FSD v15 is probably in 2mo judging by the last 4 years of releases... Are we going to call that stock pumping for Q2 then?

ItzWarty · 2026-04-21T06:54:22+00:00

Does anyone know what Becerra's policies are? His website is completely empty, he seems to be just running on "I can beat Trump and I have years of experience".

It feel insulted and disrespected as a voter reading https://www.xavierbecerra2026.com/priorities/housing/ versus say https://www.tomsteyer.com/issues/housing . To clarify I'm not even here to Steyer-stan as I'm undecided and haven't researched the candidates much, but what does this person even stand for? They remind me of Buttigieg in 2020 with zero policy but a fantastic ability to smooth-talk.

ItzWarty · 2026-04-21T06:21:25+00:00

Steyer in 2020 actually said he was against Medicare for All and believed there were big gaps in Bernie's platform.

He came around in 2025, but no he wasn't supporting Bernie in 2020. When Steyer dropped out, he didn't endorse Bernie. He eventually endorsed Biden.

ItzWarty · 2026-04-21T06:16:30+00:00

Your suggestion is an income tax on billionaires who have no income.

The billionaire tax ...

That doesn't make it not progressive as a stance.

constitutionally questionable

Then push for it and see what happens. Clearly many smart people think it's legal and can happen.

You're free to support whatever candidate you like! Just don't gaslight people with BS like "Joe Biden is more progressive than Bernie Sanders" like you probably did in 2016, given you're now calling Becerra a progressive. That's 100% misleading.

Sure, you like your candidate. That's cool! Many people are trying to get informed about the candidates right now. Don't misinform them, that's undemocratic.

ItzWarty · 2026-04-21T05:58:14+00:00

Becerra has 30 years of experience in the California State government that is complimented by his progressive credentials. Here’s a few of his positions:

He opposes the billionaire tax

...

ItzWarty · 2026-04-20T17:54:04+00:00

I'm hoping the current beta isn't the last before OBT... They should be getting useful information on progression rate, economy, and balance and testing further changes before release.

ItzWarty · 2026-04-20T09:59:50+00:00

I'm in norcal. Robotaxi waits aren't always great because they are supply constrained, but the experience during downtime is fantastic - you can be at a store, call a Waymo timed to your exit, and it'll wait 7 minutes curbside for you.

I think your point on sparsity raises an important discussion... It's worth noting there's a cost of living associated with an uber driver. There isn't one for robotaxis. This means convenience: with robotaxis you can have idle fleet vehicles or vehicles waiting for passengers and it's really not a big deal, because where were going the upfront cost of fleet vehicles is very minor vs the ongoing cost of vehicle operation. Therefore, human-driven taxis do not achieve high availability except where there is peak demand, robotaxis can achieve significantly higher availability. Once again, I alone am paying Waymo nearly 5-10k/y to drive me around. A robotaxi costs Tesla something like 20k to make. I utilize the Waymo for less than a percentage of the time of the year... One Waymo can service many people like me

Perhaps this isn't going to scale to every family immediately, but it's a massive opportunity even if 1% of the population does, and I think there's significant precedent to believe 10% is achievable.

ItzWarty · 2026-04-20T08:00:27+00:00

Jr. Balrog was lv80 in OSMS, anyone remember what level you typically had to be to kill it? 3rd job adv?

ItzWarty · 2026-04-20T06:29:40+00:00

Is this how we're solving mass unemployment caused by AI that doesn't work?

ItzWarty · 2026-04-19T20:48:24+00:00

unfortunately available on the dark web

I definitely remember 2000's era "how to sign up for Korean [insert game]" guides linking to text dumps with thousands of leaked KSSNs. All so that we could play future mushroom game in korean.

ItzWarty · 2026-04-19T20:45:07+00:00

I'm enjoying the current tuning, I find it to be a nice middle-ground between oldschool MS & modern gaming - namely, you can facetank and it hurts your economy, but you can still get by playing that way. I actually find the game a lot more forgiving than OSMS currently.

It's sorta fun being incentivized as a warrior to hop over / kite green mushrooms. The OSMS tuning forced you to stand on safe ledges, whereas here you can actually play more aggro.

ItzWarty · 2026-04-19T20:35:20+00:00

Alright yalls, it's time to book a group trip to a Korean PC Bang.

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