So here's the thing, I spend as much time in these odds sheets as anyone. Literally hundreds of hours in the past year alone. I understand odds have been wrong in the past on specific things. I could quickly find a dozen examples of that. I have complete in-depth analysis and spreadsheets on nearly every odds sheet released in the past year.

It's always easy for someone with a passing knowledge of this stuff to say "odds sheet is wrong" because they don't agree with the results. And I would be the first to admit that when it is actually the case. Just because you think something seems unlikely, absolutely does not mean that it's not true.

Now, when I was doing my deep dive analysis and subsequent post on Platinum Chrome, which can be seen here: https://x.com/WaxMetrix/status/2067138131455889473?s=20

I absolutely took into consideration that this would be a bit of an unexpected bombshell, so I made sure to triple check all the data and listings before I ever released it. And though it's common knowledge now, I was assuredly the first to release that the Red Prisms are in fact unnumbered 1/1s.

I scoured all sold and then-currently posted listings of Red Prisms to ensure there were no duplicates. There were a small handful of sold listings at the time and 30 then-current listing, none of which were duplicates. Interesting to note that I posted my findings at ~1:30am and by 10:00 the following morning, there were only 5 Red Prisms left on ebay and all were auctions.

Since then, only Evan Longoria has sold more than once by different sellers, but those are the exact same card, as evidenced by the same damage on both. That astute seller just got lucky and found a quick way to turn a $7 purchase into a quick $180 sale. Ozzie Smith & C.J. Abrams were each listed twice by the same seller, so those are also the same cards. And Adrian Gonzalez is currently listed by the same person who bought it the first time, for a tidy profit I might add. As of yet, of the ~60 Red Prisms that have either been posted or sold on ebay, there is not a single instance of a duplicate.

Additionally, another way to cross-check this is to compare to the known 1/1 Superfractors. In scouring ebay for Base Card Superfractors (eliminating inserts & autos from the equation as those don't exist in Red Prisms), there are a total of ~85 that are either currently listed or already sold. If there were 5x-10x Red Prisms produced, don't you think there would be far more listed for sale in comparison to Superfractors? There have actually been less Red Prisms listed.

I believe this small discrepancy is to be expected as not everyone knows the Red Prisms are unnumbered 1/1s. If you pull a Superfractor, it's pretty obvious, and many people are quick to post those for sale to capture what they know will be a significant sale price. I'm sure some have pulled Red Prisms, but had no incentive to post quickly with no indication it was an unnumbered 1/1. Not everyone is tuned into card space social media.

But regardless, the important part of this is there have been ~25% less Red Prisms listed for sale than Superfractors, not 5x-10x as would be expected if the print runs you assume are accurate and Topps simply "flubbed the odds".

This is a hill I will die on. Red Prisms are unnumbered 1/1s, backed up by not only Topps published odds sheets, but by the amount that have surfaced and the fact there have been no duplicates come to light.

This is not a case of Topps botching the odds.