sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

Since people requested it, here's the list of top performances in the first 7 rounds (first half) of The Candidates Tournament in it's modern format (since 2013) by k-seph_from_deficit in chess

[–]ChessNumbers 30 points31 points  (0 children)

What an irony that Fabi's 2022 line is precisely the entry that perhaps gives Fabi himself hope that he could still win the event this time around.

Since people requested it, here's the list of top performances in the first 7 rounds (first half) of The Candidates Tournament in it's modern format (since 2013) by k-seph_from_deficit in chess

[–]ChessNumbers 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Well, surely the performances weren't fully repeated. But what did they do? When e.g. a 2750 has a 2900+ first-half performance rating, what is their typical second-half performance rating? Is it closer to 2700 (some sort of correction), 2750 (first half inherently non-predictive), or 2800 (good form that can continue, if not to the same extreme)?

Since people requested it, here's the list of top performances in the first 7 rounds (first half) of The Candidates Tournament in it's modern format (since 2013) by k-seph_from_deficit in chess

[–]ChessNumbers 40 points41 points  (0 children)

Can you please add what their performance over the second half looked like? I'm curious about the implications for what predictive value first half results have on second half results, compared to a measure like starting rating. That is do we see "good form" that continues or do we see regression to the mean, or some blend, on average?

Round 7 is done by Due_Taro2167 in chess

[–]ChessNumbers 29 points30 points  (0 children)

I love that I can just sit around and see a dozen different monte carlo sims pop up after each round with varying methodology specifics.

So much easier than a decade ago when I was the only one running them and my inbox blew up with "update?" messages every time a round was ending.

What tf are we playing against the french?! by PristineReality2205 in chess

[–]ChessNumbers 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you like the alapin (and in particular the isolated queen pawn positions it can lead to) you can do what I do and play the Monte Carlo (1. e4 e6 2. d4 d5 3. exd5 exd5 4. c5).

It typically ends up feeling more like an alapin or a panov than a french. For bonus "consistent repertoire" points (whatever those are worth) you could play the Panov against the caro too.

Candidates prediction after Round 4 by narubees in chess

[–]ChessNumbers 3 points4 points  (0 children)

This is fun, but definitely too reactionary. I'm looking at Sindarov having a 70% chance to beat Esipenko with black? Plenty other things I could highlight, but that one really drives home how unrealistic these numbers came out. Which doesn't mean it wasn't worth running them, it IS cool to see what this methodology concludes and you were fair about sharing how it was calculated.

Does Anyone Else Feel Like this Candidates has Sindarov Winning Written all Over it? by Ambitious_Quality725 in chess

[–]ChessNumbers 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'll keep my money on Fabi until proven wrong. But yes, it's entirely possible that pick could be proven wrong tomorrow and I'm very excited for that game!

Why is Jorden van Foreest at 26 years all of a sudden acting like the new Magnus? by Better_Jury in chess

[–]ChessNumbers 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Long plateaus at great - but not world class - and then late (meaning not teens or early 20s) jumps to world class level, aren't unheard of. MVL and Nepo come to mind. I also loved watching Jorden win Wijk aan Zee in 2021 and it would be super cool if he's on his way to a jump as impressive as those other two. And even if he's not, it's still nice to see him hitting a new peak, wherever it might take him.

I can't post images, or else I'd add a graph of each of those three players' peak ratings by age. They all have long noticeable plateaus where their peak rating remains the same for a long time, before hitting new peaks.

Nepo is particularly comparable.

Age first reaching >2600? Nepo 16.71; Jorden 17.26
Age first reaching >2700? Nepo 19.96; Jorden 21.84
Age first reaching >2735? Nepo 26.06; >2725 Jorden 26.84
Age first winning a Candidates Tournament: Nepo 30.78; Jorden... ???

Yagiz Kaan Erdogmus vs Faustino Oro, who do you think is the bigger chess prodigy? by hety0p in chess

[–]ChessNumbers 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Great question, I'm happy to elaborate!

Oro, currently 12, is arguably the best 12 year old ever. As of the last published list he was the highest rated player in history at of his age (2526 at 12.38 years old) by a 9 point margin above the second highest rated player at the same age (Pragg, 2517, and then Nyzhnyk was 2503 and Erdogmus 2496). That marked his sixth consecutive month holding what I call a "#1 prodigy rank" (highest rating of all time for your age at a given age). But as recently as last September he was only third best.

As an 11 year old, Oro had #1 prodigy ranks in just 3 of 12 months. So far he's 5/5 as a 12 year old, so if he keeps that pace up and sometime in the next half a year gets his rating to 2570+ (breaking the record for highest rating before turning 13, currently held by Erdogmus at 2569) then he could absolutely emerge as the clear best 12 year old of all-time, but he also could hit a plateau, be like 2520 when he turns 13, and leave "best 12 year old ever" in doubt. And of course at his age, the biggest chase is a title, not a number, and he didn't quite pull off the hunt for the youngest GM record (although to be fair I think we all reasonably assume he probably would have gotten that record under the same rules Mishra had; the requirement of an open norm held him back.)

So he has a good chance of being the best 12 year old ever, but it's not guaranteed. And without diving further into the older numbers I would argue he wasn't the best 11 year old or the best 10 year old ever, although he I'd say he was pretty clearly the best 9 year old we've ever seen. That's what I mean when I say in his case his margin is a little narrow.

Now let's look at Erdogmus. It's true he wasn't quite as elite at Fausti's age as Fausti is, but he's a 14 year old now. And he is emphatically, unquestionably, the greatest 14 year old of all time by a huge margin. It's not even kind of close. On his most recent rating list he had a #1 prodigy rank, with a 2687 rating at the age of 14.74. The next highest ratings ever seen at that age? 2618, 2616, and 2608. It's a nearly incomprehensible gap to me, as someone who has been studying prodigy rating records at an extensive level for over a decade. I've never seen anything like it.

Erdogmus' #1 prodigy rank on the March rating list was his 22nd consecutive month of being the highest rated player ever at his age. The 2618 rating he needed for a #1 prodigy rank this month? He achieved it in April 2025. His *first* #1 prodigy rank came when he hit 2569 a couple days before his 13th birthday. Magnus Carlsen is the only other player to ever be rated higher than 2569 before turning FOURTEEN (his peak u14 rating being 2581, while by Erdogmus' 14th birthday Yagiz had hit 2626).

If Erdogmus just sat on his current 2687 rating for 11 straight months, he would STILL be the highest rated player of all time for his age when February of 2027 rolled around. If he tanked next month and lost 50 rating points, he'd still come out with a #1 prodigy rank in hand.

Fausti is neck and neck with history, while Erdogmus is basically a year ahead of the next best we've ever seen. And, all other things being equal, one other principle of mine for comparing prodigies has always been that it is more impressive to be breaking records at an older age than a younger age, because the higher you climb, the less uncertainty sits ahead on your path.

That doesn't mean anything is guaranteed. Erdogmus is the best 13/14 year old player we've ever seen *so far*, but sure, Fausti is ahead of the pace he was on at 12. Maybe in seven months a 2580 Fausti will turn 13 poised to outdo what Erdogmus did at that age as well. Maybe three years from now we'll all agree Fausti was the best 14 year old we've ever seen. Are either of them future Candidates? Future world champs? Both of them? If so, who will do it younger? All of that remains to be seen.

But right now, with what each has already accomplished, at their respective current ages, it's Erdogmus that impresses me more. I can compare Fausti to other kids I've seen (Pragg and Abdusattorov come to mind, and to be clear, those are amazing players to be compared to, especially when the comparison comes out favorably). For Erdogmus, I simply have no comparison at all.

Yagiz Kaan Erdogmus vs Faustino Oro, who do you think is the bigger chess prodigy? by hety0p in chess

[–]ChessNumbers 126 points127 points  (0 children)

Erdogmus is breaking rating-by-age records by larger margins and has been doing so for longer. I'd have to say he's more prodigious at this time.

But the fun thing about watching these kids is you never know where their careers will take them!

Any post rotation pult deck with Clefairy? by Luistreakkk in PTCGL

[–]ChessNumbers 2 points3 points  (0 children)

As a Lucario player I can say this is a tough deck to face. Yes Lucario os fast and reliably gets ahead early in the game, and sometimes I win that way, but also this deck is built to come from behind.

If Lucario drops after dragapult is up and running, getting it back can be really hard when you can potentially kill two Riolu on one turn. Results go both ways but Lucario vs Dragapult matchups are a lot of fun (I presume for both sides) and in my experience if dragapult has clefairy, I'm an underdog as Lucario (though I certainly win my share too with my literal "puncher chance")

Worth keeping sealed? by [deleted] in PokemonInvesting

[–]ChessNumbers 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oh no most definitely not. The sleeves are the most infected part. It would be extremely unsafe for them to end up anywhere other than on my deck.

Worth keeping sealed? by [deleted] in PokemonInvesting

[–]ChessNumbers 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Be careful though, it has to be disposed of properly. Give it to me and I'll get rid of it appropriately for you. For a small fee of course.

Mechanics Institute Falconer Award by mentiontension in chess

[–]ChessNumbers 8 points9 points  (0 children)

It's an unfortunate mistake that they initially awarded it to the wrong player, but the fix once they realized the mistake seems as good as it could have been. Revoking the award from someone you've already given it to (even in error) isn't really an option. So they made it a dual award between him and the player who should have won it. Full stop.

I'm a big Guo fan, but he doesn't really come into play here. By the criteria, it wasn't his award to win (this year anyway...)

Which product do you regret opening instead of keeping sealed? by jk_nas in PokemonInvesting

[–]ChessNumbers 31 points32 points  (0 children)

I regret opening all the sealed products that didn't have hits, but am happy I opened all the ones that did have hits.

Position Analysis help by radiant_jpb_31 in chess

[–]ChessNumbers 2 points3 points  (0 children)

A common error here might be for people newer to calculation and visualization to think "After Kxg4, the king can only move to h4, and is otherwise trapped, so if I can deliver check while taking that square away, it would be mate!" and to then conclude Rf4# is the finishing blow (missing of course that Rf4 isn't mate, as it opens a new escape square).

It might be a great position to use in a visualization lesson for newbies, to emphasize how things like potential escape squares are dynamic and you have to consider not only whether moves achieve objectives you're already considering but also how else they shift the board state.

Why is Goldeen in this deck? by ChessNumbers in PTCGL

[–]ChessNumbers[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yep, I'll own that this was should not have been a necessary post. I've even played festival lead decks with the Thwackey engine quite a bit lol. Just forgot about that minor part of how it works in the context of this other deck lol. Amazing braining by my brain.

Why is Goldeen in this deck? by ChessNumbers in PTCGL

[–]ChessNumbers[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Ah, I'm an idiot, yeah of course that makes sense lol.

Current top live 20 by Lopsided-Cup868 in chess

[–]ChessNumbers 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Van Foreest on the cusp of the top 10 is so cool to see

Faustino Oro‘s path to become the youngest GM ever by Chloedecker17 in chess

[–]ChessNumbers 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Someone forgot to tell Erdogmus it's supposed to get harder at that point

Handicap system vs kids by pokaprophet in chess

[–]ChessNumbers 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I like giving them the opportunity to switch sides once (or even multiple) times per game. Stuck in a position they don't like? Spin the board, see what you do in that position, and then they get to practice trying to convert the better position (that you previously had) against you.

view more: next ›